Obama's Comments Will Haunt Him in November

Ezra Klein suggested over the weekend that:

I'm not really sure what the big deal over Obama's comments in SF is supposed to be....As far as I can tell, few actually find the argument underlying Obama's statement controversial...

Actually, Obama's remarks are turning out to pretty controversial, as members of both the left and right have acknowledged.

Here's John Judis' essay on Obama's likely "bitter" November haunting, which references Klein in the introduction:

Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama's fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week. But that's wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can't carry Florida--and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters "clinging" to guns, religion, abortion, and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class's relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.

I think this is an imporant analysis, especially with respect to McCain's strengths among more traditional Democratic voting constituencies.

See also, John Fund, "Obama's Flaws Multiply," where he notes:

Michael Dukakis had a healthy lead in 1988 against the elder Bush at this time and right through the political conventions. Then came the GOP's dissection of his Massachusetts record and his tank ride.

I was thinking about the 1988 election this morning on the way to work. Fund is talking about how the Democrats tend to nominate inexperienced candidates, to their peril. My reflections back to 1988 had more to do with party electoral dynamics.

The assumption that 2008's going to be a big Democratic year flawed, and the Dukakis tank ride 20 years ago - not to mention Willie Horton - are the precedents heading into the fall.

Sure, we've got pent-up demands for effective government performance, but back in 1998 we had similar political polarization over the Reagan administration's legacy, yet George H.W. Bush won the White House that year. Indeed, I identified the Dukakis analogy for 2008 back in January, in my post, "Conservative Troubles in '08?"

Of course, Ezra Klein was only 3 years-old at the time of Dukakis' nomination, so some historical significance might be lost on him.

Hat tip: Memeorandum.