Thursday, September 27, 2012

GOP Bid for Senate Control Fading?

I don't know actually if the GOP's lost all hope on regaining the Senate, but this piece at the Los Angeles Times is reasonable: "Democrats gain favor in battle for Senate."

One thing noted there (and elsewhere recently) is that there's a noticeable uptick in voter optimism on the economy, which should dampen prospects for Republicans a bit. I'm reminded of 2008 and the financial crash of late October. McCain was still running strong in the race and I thought he might still win. But his campaign imploded and got all off track --- with the candidate suspending his campaign to return to the Senate to work on a bailout package that ended up not being the final bailout package --- and economic issues sealed the election for Obama and the Democrats. This year unemployment rates and presidential approval ratings were trending against Obama's reelection, but O's been seeing his approval ratings spike up around 50 percent in most recent polls. While there's some debate on the accuracy of the polls, it's clear that we're not in as deep a trough of pessimism that would elevate the GOP ticket to an easy win. There's still pessimism --- Americans still think the country's on the wrong track --- but that pessimism isn't as pronounced as it's been in earlier months.

More on all of this as we go along...