America's Foreign Policy is Now Trending on Twitter

From Amy Zegart, at Foreign Policy, "The Shortsighted Presidency":

There is nothing quite like the Olympics in Russia to make American political institutions and economic conditions look good. But soon, those podium moments (Go men's freestyle slope skiers!), Vladimir Putin's creepy "pay no attention to my repressive regime" half-smile, and Russia's inability to make flushing toilets or working Olympic ring lights will fade. The spotlight will turn once again to the United States -- and whether it still has what it takes to forge a successful, sustainable foreign policy.

Few would dispute that American political institutions aren't what they used to be. Filibusters, which allow congressional minorities to grind government business to a halt, have skyrocketed, from six in the 91st Congress (1969-1971) to an all-time high of 112 in the 110th Congress (2007-2008). Today's legislators are also more polarized ideologically, with moderates in both parties becoming an endangered species. Trust in government is at an all-time low, with only 10 percent of Americans reporting a high degree of confidence in Congress (compared to 76 percent for the U.S. military).

Our economic fundamentals aren't any prettier, with debt constituting 73 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), higher than any time since around World War II, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That compares to a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 20 percent for China and 94 percent for Spain. Of course, the 2008 recession, which started with the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble, created the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, leading to the near collapse of several large financial institutions, sovereign debt crises across Europe, and downturns in stock markets worldwide. But since then, U.S. growth has averaged an anemic 1.075 percent from 2009 to 2012 (compared to an average of 3.68 percent during the second half of the 20th century). And as Nobel laureate Michael Spence notes, the American economy is poorly structured to thrive in the global marketplace, with increasing employment in nontradeable sectors such as government and health care, and an educational system in relative decline.

Yet here's the thing. Even with a gridlocked, polarized, and reckless Congress, a skyrocketing national debt, and a shaky economy, President Barack Obama has been strangely unconstrained in executing his major foreign policy priorities. He surged then drew down in Afghanistan, intervened in Libya, pivoted to Asia, negotiated an interim nuclear deal with Iran, expanded NSA surveillance capabilities, and deployed drones to kill suspected terrorists, including American citizens, around the world without much of a peep from Congress (with the exception of Rand Paul). While many question whether these policies are wise or well-implemented, it's clear that Obama has been able to get much of what he wants on major issues. U.S. foreign policy has hewed closely to his preferences.

What's going on? How can we square these serious institutional and economic conditions with Obama's comparatively free hand in foreign affairs?

It's possible that Obama is simply a persuasive politician, though his domestic policy struggles with health care reform and his outright failure to pass major domestic priorities -- immigration reform, a budget "grand bargain," climate change legislation, or expanded background checks on gun purchases -- suggest otherwise. It is also possible, as the political scientist Aaron Wildavsky famously noted, that presidents are systematically less constrained in the conduct of foreign than domestic policy. The president is, after all, the commander-in-chief, negotiator-in-chief, and secret-information-holder-in-chief, wielding substantial formal powers to strike deals and order strikes abroad, and carrying more informal clout on the world stage than he often does in Washington.

If Wildavsky's "two presidencies" thesis were true, it would be good news, suggesting that coherent foreign policy still has a future. But I think there's a third, more likely, and disconcerting dynamic at play. Like all presidents, Obama is relatively unconstrained in the near term to pursue the foreign policies he desires. But he is seriously and dangerously constrained over the longer term by three factors that are often hard to see -- but growing worse...

Well, let's hope so.

Otherwise quite progressive people are dismissing the f-ker as a bloody tyrant.

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