Majority of Betting Public Counted on Fairy-Tale Ending to Peyton Manning's Magical Season

Yeah, and the bookie's made out big.

As I said before, Denver's poor play was literally shocking.

At NYT, "Minus Some Surprises, Sports Books Strike Gold in Wreckage of Broncos":

Thank you, Mr. Manning, for an amazing 2013 season. No matter how it ended, you put on one heck of a show. pic.twitter.com/plDGWozLrV

— NFL (@nfl) February 3, 2014

It was a good day at the office for Nevada sports books as the Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 destruction of the Denver Broncos defied the expectations of the square money, representing the general betting public, which wanted to see a storybook ending to the record-breaking season of Denver quarterback Peyton Manning.

Two in three bettors put money on Denver, which closed as a 2 ½-point favorite, according to data provided by four online sports books and a survey of bookies. It meant the Nevada sports books were not only likely to surpass last year’s record of $98.9 million worth of action, but they could surpass the $15.4 million in profit the books won in 2005, or a healthy 17 percent hold margin, when New England beat Philadelphia, 24-21.

Last year, the sports books made $7,206,460 and held 7.3 percent of the total handle on the Baltimore Ravens’ 34-31 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. The Nevada Gaming Commission will release final figures later this week. Books have lost just twice in the game since the Nevada Gaming Commission started keeping records in 1991.

“Recreational bettors backed the quarterback they knew from TV commercials — while the wiseguys took an elite defense plus the points,” said R. J. Bell, the founder of Pregame.com, a handicapping website that tracks the industry.

The books were hurt on a couple of proposition bets, most notably on the first play from scrimmage when Broncos center Manny Ramirez snapped the ball past Manning for a safety. Several books offered 50-to-1 odds on the first scoring play being a Seahawks safety. It was the third straight Super Bowl in which there was a safety and the second time in three years that it was the first score of the game.

William Hill wrote at least one $25 ticket at 50 to 1, and the L.V.H. Las Vegas Hotel & Casino took some hits at 60 to 1.

“They bet there will be a safety every year, and any time there is one, the books get hurt,” said Nick Bogdanovich, the director of trading at William Hill U.S. “I think that’s three of four years now where there’s been one, so maybe we need to adjust the odds. But there’s also 50 years of data behind it. When crazy things happen, you pay for it. It’s not fun starting the day getting six figures in the hole.”

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