It's Going to Take More Than Airstrikes to Destroy #ISIS

From Chris Woods, at Foreign Policy, "Can Airstrikes Stop the Islamic State?":

It will likely take more than just an air campaign to decimate the Islamic State. Beyond a few hundred military advisers in Iraq, however, American boots on the ground aren't an option the White House is seriously considering. Recent U.S. military actions in Libya and Yemen have focused exclusively on air power. That's Obama's preferred model for fighting the Islamic State, as well. "American combat troops are not going to be fighting in Iraq again," the president has made clear.

Yet there's scant proof that airpower-only campaigns actually work. Much of Libya is now overrun by militant Islamists, while Yemen is actually less stable today after five years of secret U.S. drone strikes.

Ground troops will eventually be needed to hold territory once IS is forced out of the areas of Syria and Iraq it now controls. Washington and its Western allies not only have little appetite for another ground war, they don't have enough credibility to conduct one following the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq. Presumably that's why Obama has promoted the idea of a regional solution to the problem. Yet with the Syrian and Iraqi armies barely capable of stepping up, it's not clear who would fill that void.

"If you want the Iraqi Army to go capture everything in the next few weeks then yes, it's going to struggle," says Afzal Ashraf, a former Royal Air Force group captain who served in Iraq. Sorting out the Iraqi Army's disastrous leadership could take months, maybe years, and time is in short supply. Yet Ashraf thinks it's still possible to turn things around: "Once you start using [airstrikes] to gain small tactical victories, it starts to build up its expertise fairly rapidly, and they become more confident."

thers too are confident that bombing can sufficiently degrade the Islamic State enough to turn the tide of the conflict. Lt. Gen. David Deptula was an architect of the successful U.S. air campaign that destroyed the Taliban in 2001. As he notes, the Northern Alliance was actually losing the war in Afghanistan in 2001 before U.S. airpower and small teams of elite U.S. forces on the ground turned the tide -- and in just weeks.

Yet if Obama means to do the same to the Islamic State, airstrikes will have to increase by an order of magnitude, Deptula believes. "We need to institute an aggressive air campaign in which airpower is applied like a thunderstorm, and not like a drizzle." He believes many hundreds of armed sorties a day will be needed if Washington is serious about wanting to "halt, paralyze, and then render ineffective [IS]."

We'll soon find out whether Obama has the appetite for that kind of fight.

Yeah, we'll see.

And frankly, we'll at least need some special operations forces going after ISIS on the ground. Remember Michael O'Hanlon's piece from last month, "Why Iraq Air Strikes Might Not Be Enough."