Stakes Are High in Tonight's GOP Debate

Following-up, "GOP Debate Tonight."

At WSJ, "GOP Debate Preview: High Stakes for Candidates Saturday":

The Republican presidential debate night in New Hampshire Saturday will feature the smallest array of candidates yet, but the stakes are higher than ever: For several candidates, this debate could be their swan song.

Among the seven candidates on the stage, there are several for whom a strong showing in New Hampshire is a make-or-break affair. Unlike prior nights, there is no undercard debate.

The line up has been whittled to seven as three candidates have quit the race after poor performances in Iowa — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Sen. Rick Santorum, and Sen. Rand Paul. Also missing is former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina, who was excluded from the stage because she didn’t do well enough in Iowa or recent polls.

For the seven who remain, here is what they need to accomplish in the debate at St. Anselm’s College in Manchester, N.H...

Keep reading.

GOP Debate Tonight

It's an ABC News debate, co-sponsored by WMUR News 9 Manchester, New Hamphire.



Plus, "WBUR New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump Leads Nearest Rivals 29-to-12 Percent."

WBUR New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump Leads Nearest Rivals 29-to-12 Percent

See, "WBUR Poll: In N.H., Democratic Race Tightens Slightly, Trump Stays Ahead on GOP Side."

Trump's numbers are consistent across the number of New Hampshire polls I've blogged. It's the "battle for the second" tier that's pretty unsettled. But Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are tied at 12 percent in the WBUR poll, although the CNN/WMUR poll had Rubio at 18 percent, which is a pretty good difference. See, "Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)."

It's been a crazy week.

The UMass Lowell poll is releasing numbers throughout the weekend, so there's still more data we'll have to look at before Tuesday's election.

So, check back, as always.

Donald Trump Holds 19-Points Lead in UMass Lowell Tracking Poll with 3 Days of Post-Iowa Caucus Data

Okay, following-up, "Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)."

Now, here's the latest from UMass Lowell, "FEB. 5: RACE TIGHTENING ON BOTH SIDES":

Today is the first release with three days of post-Iowa Caucus data. It appears that Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55%-40%. Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Cruz and Rubio show moderate gains.

And see, "UMass Lowell/7News: Daily Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters, Release 5 of 8":

Trump Leads by 19; Race is Tightening

Meanwhile, after losing the expectations game in Iowa, businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Trump is garnering support from 34% of Republican primary voters; he is down two points from Wednesday’s release and four points since our first release before the Iowa Caucus. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who had previously gained in every day of our tracking poll, remains at 15%, unchanged from yesterday. Ted Cruz is at 14% (no change), John Kasich is at 8% (+1), Jeb Bush is at 8% (no change), Chris Christie is at 5% (no change), Ben Carson is at 4% (no change), Carly Fiorina is at 3% (no change), of Republican Primary Likely Voters 8% remain undecided.

Soft Support: 42% of Republicans Still Could Change Their Minds

Republican primary voters, however, are still making up their minds. In addition to the 8% who remain undecided, 42% say that they could change their mind...

Well, the "soft support" likely means that Saturday's GOP debate could have a real impact.

Stay tuned...

Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)

The story's at Newsmax, "CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump Has 11-Point Lead on Rubio":

Here are the results:

Donald Trump: 29 percent
Marco Rubio: 18 percent
Ted Cruz: 13 percent
John Kasich: 12 percent
Jeb Bush: 10 percent
Chris Christie: 4 percent
Carly Fiorina: 4 percent
Ben Carson: 2 percent
Jim Gilmore: 0 percent

And watch, via CNN.

I like that, the "battle for the second tier," heh:



And from yesterday, "Donald Trump Now Holds 21-Point Lead in New Hampshire Tracking Poll; Marco Rubio Scores Post-Iowa Bounce."

I'm going to take a look and see what's up with the UMass poll and will update. Stay tuned...

California Republican Assemblyman Matthew Harper Walked Precints for Ted Cruz in Iowa

On Monday I was so excited about the caucuses I wrote that I wished I was in Iowa to witness them first hand, to say nothing of campaigning for the candidates.

Well, Assemblyman Matthew Harper, from Huntington Beach, did just that.

What a great story.

At LAT, "A California Republican went to Iowa for the caucuses. Here's what his weekend was like":

Iowa Democrats' HQ building looks grim with no cars in the parking lot, like it's ready to be condemned. #IACaucus pic.twitter.com/nmiKmZ6Guo

— Matthew Harper (@AsmHarper) January 30, 2016

It's a vacation only political nerds could love: a trip to chilly Iowa in the lead-up to its famed presidential caucuses. California Assemblyman Matthew Harper, a Republican from Huntington Beach, booked his first-ever trip to the Hawkeye State months ago, before he even had chosen a candidate.

Last weekend, Harper, one of the more conservative members of the Assembly GOP caucus, spent 36 hours making calls and walking neighborhoods in support of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. He talked to The Times about his whirlwind trip when he returned...

I'm a political nerd, lol.

Keep reading.

Ted Cruz and the Art of the Dirty Trick

Following-up from yesterday, "Ted Cruz Campaign Sent Voicemails to Iowa Voters Spreading Ben Carson 'Suspension' Rumors (AUDIO)."

From Amy Davidson, at the New Yorker:

There has never been a more tainted victory in the Iowa caucuses,” a spokesman for Ben Carson’s campaign said on Tuesday. He was referring to what he called Ted Cruz’s “abject lies” and, particularly, to what appears to have been a concerted effort on the part of the Cruz campaign to persuade voters at caucuses that Carson had dropped out. Carson himself told Fox News that his wife had had to personally refute that rumor at one caucus site—and once she had, he said, he won there. “Isn’t this the exact kind of thing that the American people are tired of? Why would we want to continue that kind of, you know, shenanigans?” Donald Trump put the charge in his own terms in a tweet: “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!”

That was only part of what Trump had to say. He threatened to sue Cruz; he made himself the champion of the honor of Ben Carson, a man who Trump has suggested is “pathological.” He tweeted that “the State of Iowa should disqualify Ted Cruz from the most recent election on the basis that he cheated—a total fraud!” Cruz had also sent out a mailer marked “Voter Violation,” which purported to contain information about voters and their neighbors, and was printed on yellow paper to look like a real ticket—which, as Ryan Lizza noted, was just the beginning of its problems. It was a “disgrace,” Trump said, adding what was, for a New York real-estate developer, the ultimate insult: “It looks right out of municipal government.” Cruz tried to dismiss it all as a “Trumpertantrum.” The problem was that, in the whirlwind of Trump’s rage, there were some hard objects swirling around and banging into Cruz’s story.

Cruz has said that he won Iowa by being uncompromising and clever, with all those data-driven, micro-targeted canvassing runs—part of what his campaign reportedly called the Oorlog Project. According to Sasha Issenberg, of Bloomberg News, it was “named by a Cruz data scientist who searched online for ‘war’ translated into different languages and thought the Afrikaner word looked coolest.” (“War” is cool; “war” with a hint of an illiberal siege mentality in its orthography is, apparently, coolest.) And it was, by all accounts, a get-out-the-vote drive like none other—even better than Barack Obama’s, in 2008, which had set the standard...

Keep reading.

The "art of the dirty trick." "Artful smears."

This is getting to the mos artful election ever, lol.

'Once again the world is laughing at Iowa...'

Chuck Todd just mentioned the Des Moines Register's editorial this morning, "Something smells in the Democratic Party":

Once again the world is laughing at Iowa. Late-night comedians and social media mavens are having a field day with jokes about missing caucusgoers and coin flips.

That’s fine. We can take ribbing over our quirky process. But what we can’t stomach is even the whiff of impropriety or error.

What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period. Democracy, particularly at the local party level, can be slow, messy and obscure. But the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy.

The Iowa Democratic Party must act quickly to assure the accuracy of the caucus results, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

First of all, the results were too close not to do a complete audit of results. Two-tenths of 1 percent separated Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. A caucus should not be confused with an election, but it’s worth noting that much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states.

Second, too many questions have been raised. Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.

The Sanders campaign is rechecking results on its own, going precinct by precinct, and is already finding inconsistencies, said Rania Batrice, a Sanders spokeswoman. The campaign seeks the math sheets or other paperwork that precinct chairs filled out and were supposed to return to the state party. They want to compare those documents to the results entered into a Microsoft app and sent to the party.

“Let’s compare notes. Let’s see if they match,” Batrice said Wednesday.

Dr. Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, dug in her heels and said no. She said the three campaigns had representatives in a room in the hours after the caucuses and went over the discrepancies.

McGuire knows what’s at stake. Her actions only confirm the suspicions, wild as they might be, of Sanders supporters. Their candidate, after all, is opposed by the party establishment — and wasn’t even a Democrat a few months ago.

So her path forward is clear: Work with all the campaigns to audit results...

More.

Ted Cruz Campaign Sent Voicemails to Iowa Voters Spreading Ben Carson 'Suspension' Rumors (AUDIO)

The story's at Big Government, "EXCLUSIVE–Voicemails: ‘Ben Carson Suspending Campaigning’; Cruz: ‘Accurate Report’."

Here's #1:

[inaudible]…from the Ted Cruz campaign, calling to get to a precinct captain, and it has just been announced that Ben Carson is taking a leave of absence from the campaign trail, so it is very important that you tell any Ben Carson voters that for tonight, uh, that they not waste a vote on Ben Carson, and vote for Ted Cruz. He is taking a leave of absence from his campaign. All right? Thank you. Bye.

Here's #2:

Hello, this is the Cruz campaign with breaking news: Dr. Ben Carson will be [garbled] suspending campaigning following tonight’s caucuses. Please inform any Carson caucus goers of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted instead. Thank you. Good night.

More at TPM, via Memeorandum, "Cruz Camp Left Iowa Voters Voice Mails Repeating Carson ‘Suspending’ Rumors."

Donald Trump Now Holds 21-Point Lead in New Hampshire Tracking Poll; Marco Rubio Scores Post-Iowa Bounce

Following-up from Tuesday, "Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz."

Trump still holds a commanding lead, Ted Cruz is flat, and Marco Rubio's enjoying a post-Iowa bump.

On Twitter:

Rubio gains in @UML_CPO @7News #NHPrimary tracking poll b/c of gains w/ women, age 65+ and registered Republicans https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 4, 2016

Rubio w/ post-#IACaucus bounce, but trails Trump by 21; Trump stable @ 38, 38, 38 & 36 (today) in 4 days of tracking https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 4, 2016

Re: Umass NH poll, see page 6 at link. Note trend post Iowa. Trump slightly down, Cruz flat, Rubio daily uptick.https://t.co/NA6JStJjYM

— Brit Hume (@brithume) February 4, 2016

Donald Trump Accuses Ted Cruz of Stealing the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Today was vintage Trump.

At Politico, "Trump accuses Cruz of 'fraud,' calls for new Iowa election":

Donald Trump’s moment of humility didn’t last long. The billionaire businessman, still licking his wounds after a decisive loss in Iowa on Monday, is now crying foul, accusing Ted Cruz of stealing the election and calling for a do-over.

After congratulating Cruz during his concession speech on Monday night, Trump took to Twitter on Wednesday morning to make the case for why his loss was a crock.

"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he illegally stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong any [sic] why he got more votes than anticipated. Bad!" Trump tweeted Wednesday morning. The tweet disappeared within minutes of posting and was replaced by another that no longer included the word “illegally.”

He followed up with an ultimatum: “Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified,” he tweeted. Trump said later Wednesday that he'll likely sue. "I probably will; what he did is unthinkable," he said during an interview with Boston Herald Radio.

Trump, the master of reinvention, is trying to flip the script from loser to wronged winner, after the outcome of Iowa pierced the bubble of invincibility around the real estate mogul. Trump had sailed through the first eight months of his presidential run, defying critics who predicted that his incendiary statements would surely sink him. He went into Iowa with a roughly 5-point lead but failed to close the deal, losing to Cruz, 24 percent to 28 percent.

Temporarily bowed, a somber Trump accepted the defeat Monday night and vowed to win New Hampshire. "We finished second, and I want to tell you something, I'm just honored. I'm really honored. And I want to congratulate Ted, and I want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates,” Trump said during his concession speech, flanked by his wife, Melania...

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Sarah Palin Slams the 'Lies of Ted Cruz's Campaign'."

Sarah Palin Slams the 'Lies of Ted Cruz's Campaign'

My sleep cycle is all messed up.

I stayed up early into the morning reading and blogging, as I always do, but then I had to get going at 7:00am to get my kid ready and take him to school. I feel back asleep after I came back home. I saw folks mocking today's Donald Trump Twitter tirade before I dozed off, and now waking back up I see the campaign's blown apart on all sides.

You gotta love it!

Here's the former GOP vice-presidential candidate, on Facebook, "Dirty Politics: Witnessing Firsthand It's Always Heartbreaking, Never Surprising" (via Memeorandum).

Bob Schieffer's Homespun Wisdom on the Odd Twists and Turns of Election 2016 (VIDEO)

He's been covering presidential elections since 1968, heh.

That's great CBS News lets him come back once and a while to entertain his with his folksy presidential campaign homilies.

Via CBS Evening News:

Former Senator Scott Brown Endorses Donald Trump at Rally in Milford, New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Not sure how valuable these endorsements are. Sarah Palin's endorsement in Iowa didn't seem to help Trump too much, although there's no discounting the earned media, so there's that.

At WMUR News 9 Manchester, "Scott Brown endorses Donald Trump at campaign event in Milford":

They held a joint press conference together, but almost all of the questions were about Iowa.

"Everybody wanted his endorsement and I'm very honored that he's giving it to me,” said Trump.

A lot of the national media tried to provoke Trump into being more expressive about what happened, but Trump did his best to just kind of brush off the loss.

From what he told the crowd, it was clear that the way this is being portrayed is getting under his skin.

"I think that we did very well. I did not expect to do so well. I guess what did happen is one poll came out that said I'm four or five points ahead and that maybe built up a false expectation for some people,” said Trump.

While he kept his cool with the media, Trump let a little New York slip into his vocabulary in his stump speech, swearing twice -- once talking about Russia...

Now, if Trump could get Brown's daughter Ayla out on the stump, I'm sure he'd pick up an even larger chunk of youth demographic, young male youth in particular, heh.

Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz

The poll's out from UMass Lowell, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio."

It's interesting. Trump lost two percentage points to Cruz overnight following the Iowa caucuses, but still hold a huge double-digit lead. And as I reported earlier, he's back in vintage form along the campaign trail.

Here, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio":

Trump-38 Cruz-14 Rubio-10 Kasich-9 Bush-9 Christie-5... in Day 2 of our @UML_CPO @7News #FITN tracking poll https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 2, 2016

Donald Trump, at 38 percent support among likely voters, continues to lead all candidates in the Republican primary, but 44 percent of Republicans polled reported that they could still change their mind before Feb. 9. Voters who support Trump remain the most sure of their choice at 69 percent, but this is down from 72 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll results. Support for other GOP candidates is less firm with half or more of voters who favor candidates including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Rand Paul saying they could change their minds.

The GOP field also saw some movement since yesterday, with Trump’s nearest rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each gaining two points among likely Republican primary voters polled. Cruz, who won yesterday’s Iowa caucus, is at 14 percent and Rubio is at 10 percent. John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9 percent, Chris Christie is at 5 percent, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent and Rand Paul at 2 percent. Mike Huckabee, who has suspended his campaign, had zero percent among voters polled...

From the poll highlights:

Trump is the frontrunner in a race without a clear challenger. Cruz takes 12% of the vote, while former governors John Kasich and Jeb Bush take 9% each, Senator Marco Rubio takes 8%, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gets the support of 7% of likely voters. No other candidate is above 3% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not receive support (zero) from any Republican likely voters surveyed. Trump’s voters are the most certain, with 72% saying that their votes are definite, while 28% say that they “could change their mind.” For candidates like Bush and Rubio, majorities (59% and 57%, respectively) say they could change their mind.

Trump’s support is strongest among men and those with lower levels of education. Those whose highest level of education is a high school diploma (and below) support Trump at 46%,compared to those with a post graduate degree who support Trump at only 18%. Interestingly, Trump’s support is consistent across income levels, between Independents and Republicans and between Moderates and Conservatives. In fact, the only demographic category in which another candidate is preferred to Trump is among those who we identified as being very religious (attend church at least once a week and view scriptures as without any flaws). The most religious voters apparently prefer Ted Cruz to Trump, albeit by a narrow and not statistically significant margin, 7% to 24%.

Also, "UMass Lowell/7News: Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 1."

How Ted Cruz Engineered His Iowa Triumph

I meant to post this piece from Sasha Issenberg earlier.

He's so extremely good, at Bloomberg.

And buy his book, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

Swagger, Curses, and Confidence: Donald Trump Returns to Form in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Was there ever any doubt?

Following-up from earlier, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

At the Washington Post, "In a return to New Hampshire, Donald Trump returns to form":

Donald Trump seems to be back to his old self in New Hampshire tonight. He has the stage all to himself and has much more energy.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

On foreign policy issues, Donald Trump says: "Wouldn't you rather to have Trump as president?"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Number of times tonight Donald Trump has promised to "beat the shit" out of Islamic State terrorists: Two.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump accuses Ted Cruz's campaign of telling Iowa voters that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race -- which has yet to happen.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump takes a break from talking about campaign spending to point at reporters, glare and say: "Dishonest people!"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump shout-out to Ann Coulter: "Where is our Ann? Where is our Ann? ... Stand up, Ann. Oh, she is standing up."

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

After a weekend of back-to-back rallies that were barely 40 minutes long each,Trump filled a full 55 minutes in New Hampshire tonight.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

MILFORD, N.H. — Donald Trump returned to New Hampshire on Tuesday night with the stakes as high as ever for his presidential campaign, determined to showcase his political resilience after his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses and rouse his supporters with a rally that was a raucous return to form.

There was swagger, curses and confidence, and thousands of people packed into an athletic center, all bundled up in winter coats and many toting signs.

Speaking for more than 55 minutes, Trump revived the talking points that have defined his campaign: He slammed former Florida governor Jeb Bush. He promised to crack down on illegal immigration, build a wall on the border and bring back jobs from overseas. He criticized career politicians and accused them of selling their influence.

And the crowd roared when he cursed as he pledged to aggressively target Islamic State terrorists. "If we are attacked, somebody attacks us, wouldn't you rather have Trump as president if we're attacked?" he asked. "We'll beat the [expletive] out of them."

But first came a little reflection — and a few digs at the pundits who have described the Iowa victory by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) as a humbling and disappointing moment for the mogul...

More.

Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media

He was completely magnanimous in yesterday's concession speech, but we're seeing a new tone today. Trump was off Twitter for much longer than usual, which I hope is a sign that he was getting some good, professional campaign advice.

He's moaning about how "self-funding" a campaign is extremely expensive, which it is, although most would argue that he went the cheapskate route in Iowa, at least in terms of voter mobilization. (I don't know if he ran much advertising over the local airwaves, but he's been hammered for skimping on data-driven ground mobilizing efforts from many quarters.)

In any case, NYT's got a burst of his tweets embedded here, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

Expect updates...

Marco Rubio Was Expected to Come in Third in Iowa: That's a Bronze No Matter How You Spin It; It Ain't Never Gonna Be a Gold (VIDEO)

From Amanda Carpenter, "The Real Story Coming Out of the Iowa Caucuses":

To listen to a number of folks in the media, Marco Rubio’s third place finish in Iowa is just as good as finishing first. But bronze, no matter how you polish and spin it, ain’t never gonna be gold.

Rubio was always expected to come in third, as evidenced by the fact that his own campaign was promoting their “3-2-1” strategy to the media only a few weeks ago. Meaning they hoped to place third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina.

No matter. The real story isn’t the brainwashing prowess of Rubio’s communications team; the real story is that Cruz beat him with record turnout, something that was supposed to favor Donald Trump, and Rubio is nipping at Trump’s heels having finished one percent behind him.  And it’s worth repeating: Cruz won more Iowa votes than any other Republican in history. In history.

And this isn’t your daddy’s Iowa caucus, either...

Keep reading.

Laura Ingraham Says Donald Trump/Ted Cruz 'Death Cage Struggle' Gives New Hampshire to Marco Rubio (VIDEO)

Heh.

I love the "death cage' analogy.

Watch, via Fox News: