Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody

This is breaking news.

From Les Zaitz, "Pete Santilli reporting that Ammon Bundy is in custody and shots were fired. No police confirmation," and "At the refuge, no indication of trouble. One militant discounted report of arrests, said no one is leaving, no police there."

And at the Portland Oregonian, "Pete Santilli: Militants supporter says Ammon Bundy in custody."

Also, at OPB, "The latest on #MalheurRefuge: Militants fail to appear in John Day for a meeting. Police activity is ongoing."

Expect updates...

MORE: At the Oregonian, "Oregon standoff: Ammon Bundy reportedly in custody, shots fired (live updates)."

6:59pm Pacific: At OPB, "Close friend confirms that Ammon Bundy in police custody."

7:03pm Pacific: From Les Zaitz, "One dead, six arrested in traffic stop. Ammon Bundy, Ryan Bundy, Ryan Payne in custody."

7:06pm Pacific: At the Oregonian, "Bundys in custody, one militant dead after gunfight near Burns."

7:18pm Pacific: From Tim Pool, "FBI releases statement. One deceased at Militia standoff."

7:33pm Pacific: At OPB, "Law enforcement said no additional information will be released at this time about the deceased person."

7:41pm Pacific: At RT, "The FBI said one person who was 'a subject of a federal probable cause arrest is deceased.' He said they are not releasing any information on the person 'pending identification by the medical examiner’s office'."

7:50pm: UPDATE: "BREAKING: Report Says LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns Oregon!"

Republican Voters Say Donald Trump is 'Likely Winner' of Party's Nomination, Finds New Washington Post/ABC News Poll

Following-up from previously, "Steamroller: Donald Trump Appears Stronger Than Ever as First Voting Nears."

At ABC News, "GOPers Call Trump the Likely Winner; His Lead Stays Big, With Cruz Behind (POLL)":

Donald Trump holds his lead for the GOP nomination and has soared in expectations: 64 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now expect him to be the party’s nominee, up sharply in the last two months.

Expectations that Trump will win the nomination have jumped by 25 percentage points since November among Republican-leaning voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Two-thirds also say they’d accept him as their party’s nominee. And he’s seen by 56 percent as their most electable nominee in the general election this fall.

Trump has 37 percent support nationally among Republicans who are registered to vote, unchanged from last month (with no bounce from his endorsement by Sarah Palin). Ted Cruz has advanced by a slight 6 points from last month, and 15 points from October, to a clear, if somewhat distant, second place, with 21 percent. Marco Rubio’s in the third slot, 11 percent, with all others in the single digits in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Rubio appears to have a stand-in shot – he does well as a second choice, selected by 23 percent now vs. 14 percent last month. Ben Carson, for his part, has continued to crater, showing the sometime changeability of voter preferences: he’s gone from 22 percent two months ago to 7 percent now, almost precisely swapping places with Cruz.

There’s essentially no change among lower-tier candidates – 5 percent for Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Chris Christie, 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, 2 percent apiece for John Kasich and Mike Huckabee, 1 percent for Rand Paul and less than that for Rick Santorum...

Still more.

And the raw internals here, "GOPers Call Trump the Likely Winner; His Lead Stays Big, with Cruz Behind."

Steamroller: Donald Trump Appears Stronger Than Ever as First Voting Nears

I don't know.

If Ted Cruz is losing confidence, then perhaps Donald Trump really is unstoppable.

At the Washington Post, "As first voting nears, Trump seems stronger":

One week before the first votes of the 2016 campaign are cast, Donald Trump has solidified his standing nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Republicans see Trump as the strongest candidate on major issues and by far the most electable in the large field of GOP hopefuls.

The Republican electorate is in a sour mood as its members prepare to begin the process of picking a presidential nominee. Almost 9 in 10 say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and more than 8 in 10 are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works, including nearly 4 in 10 who say they’re angry about it.

Two-thirds worry about maintaining their current living standard, more than 6 in 10 say people with similar values are losing influence in American life, and about half say the nation’s best days are behind it. Half also say immigrants mainly weaken American society, compared with 55 percent of the overall population who say immigrants strengthen America.

Amid this political climate, Trump has maintained his place atop the Republican field for six months. He now receives the support of 37 percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, almost identical to the 38 percent support he enjoyed a month ago.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas runs second in the national survey, with 21 percent, surpassing his previous high of 15 percent in December. Third place belongs to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11 percent, virtually unchanged from 12 percent a month ago....

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop in Farmington, N.H. (John Minchillo/Associated Press)
One week before the first votes of the 2016 campaign are cast, Donald Trump has solidified his standing nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Republicans see Trump as the strongest candidate on major issues and by far the most electable in the large field of GOP hopefuls.

The Republican electorate is in a sour mood as its members prepare to begin the process of picking a presidential nominee. Almost 9 in 10 say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and more than 8 in 10 are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works, including nearly 4 in 10 who say they’re angry about it.

Two-thirds worry about maintaining their current living standard, more than 6 in 10 say people with similar values are losing influence in American life, and about half say the nation’s best days are behind it. Half also say immigrants mainly weaken American society, compared with 55 percent of the overall population who say immigrants strengthen America.

Amid this political climate, Trump has maintained his place atop the Republican field for six months. He now receives the support of 37 percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, almost identical to the 38 percent support he enjoyed a month ago.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas runs second in the national survey, with 21 percent, surpassing his previous high of 15 percent in December. Third place belongs to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11 percent, virtually unchanged from 12 percent a month ago.

Rounding out the field are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 7 percent, former Florida governor Jeb Bush at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4 percent, businesswoman Carly Fiorina at 3 percent, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 1 percent. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum registered less than 1 percent.

When first and second choices are combined, Trump is named by 49 percent, Cruz by 39 percent and Rubio by 32 percent — well ahead of the others.

At this point in presidential campaigns, as the primary season is beginning, candidates’ support can be tenuous and shift quickly in response to the first state-level contests. Results in Iowa, which holds its caucuses Monday, and in New Hampshire, which votes eight days later, often scramble national numbers. Trump enters this crucial phase strong nationally, but it isn’t clear what a loss in Iowa would do to his support.

But The Post-ABC survey offers some clues. Trump’s supporters appear more committed to him than do people backing other candidates. A majority (57 percent) of Trump supporters say they will definitely vote for him. For all the other candidates combined, 34 percent are as firmly committed, while nearly two-thirds say they could change their minds.

Trump’s committed support exceeds what the previous Republican nominee received before the Iowa caucuses four years ago: 36 percent of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s supporters said then that they would definitely support his candidacy.

The poll also finds no sign that Trump’s support wavers among the Republicans who are most likely to attend primaries and caucuses, which are typically low-turnout contests. Trump’s 16-point advantage among all registered Republican voters is similar to his lead among Republicans who say they are certain to vote, report voting in 2012 Republican contests or are following the race “very closely.”

Although there was resistance to his candidacy at the beginning, Trump now is broadly acceptable to GOP voters. About 2 in 3 Republicans say they would find him acceptable as their nominee, a percentage almost identical to Cruz’s and Rubio’s. Rubio is seen as the least unacceptable, followed by Cruz, Carson and then Trump. Only about half of Republicans say Christie and Bush are acceptable, and Bush has the highest “unacceptable” percentage at 45...

Still more.

Ava Lovley, 9, Bursts Into Tears When Her Mom Tells Her She's Going to Meet Donald Trump (VIDEO)

At the Portland Press Herald, "Maine mom surprises daughter, 9, with trip to Trump rally: Video."

And watch, "9 year old girl finds out she's meeting Donald Trump in person!"

I love this. It's what politics is all about.

Ahead of Iowa Caucuses, Ted Cruz Shows Doubts, Says 'No State is a Must-Win for Us' (VIDEO)

And the consensus now is that record turnout in Iowa gives Donald Trump the advantage. Perhaps Ted Cruz is seeing the writing on the wall and is now looking to tamp down expectations.

The fact is, Iowa is a "must-win" state for him, because if he can't overcome Trump there, it's going to be a steamroller of "Trumpmentum" after that.

Frankly, all the hand-wringing's probably for naught at this point. Trump really does appear unstoppable, which was Cruz's own admission at an Iowa meet-up earlier today.

Watch, here's Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Channel, "Mounting Signs Turnout GOP Candidates In Iowa Caucuses Could Hit Record."

Paris Taxi Drivers Strike Over Uber (VIDEO)

I love this.

When France has unrest they get all revolutionary, heh.

At the Guardian UK, "France hit by day of protest as security forces fire teargas at taxi strike."

And at the BBC, "Anti-Uber taxi drivers block Paris road during strike."

California Bikini Model Melissa Riso

She's on Twitter.

And at the Last Men on Earth, "MELISSA RISO IN A BIKINI."

BONUS: At Pirate's Cove, "If All You See……is horrible snow created by too much carbon pollution from Other People, you might just be a Warmist."

NewsBusted — Bernie Sanders is Leading Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire...

This is great.

Via Theo Spark.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Propose Highest Capital Gains Tax Rate in History

As if this was supposed to be a surprise.

Via Vodkapundit (at Instapundit), "FORBES: CLINTON AND SANDERS PROPOSE HIGHEST CAPITAL GAINS TAX RATE IN HISTORY."

Laura Ingraham Explains Donald Trump's Appeal on 'Fox & Friends' (VIDEO)

Remember, Ingraham came out hard against National Review.

Here, "National Review's Unwise Excommunication of Donald Trump."

And watch, via Fox News:

Eroding Cliffs Threaten Homes Along the Coast at Pacifica, California (VIDEO)

At LAT, "El Niño storms erode Pacifica bluff as homes teeter on the edge."

And watch, at CBS This Morning, "Cliff erosion threatens to push California homes into sea."

Alexandra Mezher, 22, Swedish Social Worker, Stabbed to Death by 15-Year-Old Muslim 'Refugee' (VIDEO)

At Blazing Cat Fur, "Teen Refugee Stabs Swedish Social Worker."

And at Bare Naked Islam, "SWEDEN: ‘Teenage’ Muslim migrant stabs refugee center worker to death."

Still more, at RWN, "Liberal Volunteer Savagely Stabbed to Death at CHILD Migrant Center by 15-Year-Old Muslim ‘Refugee’."

And watch, at CNN, "Police say teen refugee kills Swedish woman."

Donald Trump Surges to 41 Percent in Latest CNN National Poll (VIDEO)

It's going to be a steamroller.

Trump's going to win Iowa, and then from there it's all over. He'll obliterate the competition in New Hampshire, and drive out the remaining bottom-tier candidates in South Carolina.

At the Conservative Treehouse, "CNN/ORC Poll – Donald Trump Surges To 41%, Ted Cruz 19%, Marco Rubio 8%…"

And watch, via CNN, "Poll: Trump dominates GOP field at 41%."

Britney Spears Bikini Videos Are Breaking the Internet

Heh.

I can dig it.

Watch, at Harpers, "THESE MYSTERIOUS VIDEOS OF BRITNEY SPEARS DANCING IN A BIKINI ARE BREAKING THE INTERNET."

As Donald Trump and Ted Cruz Soar, GOP Leaders' Exasperation Grows

There's been numerous iterations of the story written already, but still, I'm getting a kick out of them.

At the New York Times (via Memeorandum):

DES MOINES — Republican leaders are growing alarmed by the ferocious ways the party’s mainstream candidates for president are attacking one another, and they fear that time is running out for any of them to emerge as a credible alternative to Donald J. Trump or Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Leaders of the Republican establishment, made up of elected officials, lobbyists and donors, are also sending a message to the mainstream candidates, such as former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, that they should withdraw from the race if they do not show strength soon.

The members of the party establishment are growing impatient as they watch Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz dominate the field heading into the Iowa caucuses next Monday and the New Hampshire primary about a week later.

The party elders had hoped that one of their preferred candidates, such as Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, would be rising above the others by now and becoming a contender to rally around.

Instead, they have a muddled field of battered mainstream candidates: Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey...

Keep reading.

Experts Question Detention and Security Protocols at Orange County Jail

O.C. jail does head counts just two times a day, and they place violent criminals --- suspected murderers --- in dormitories rather than individual cells.

Not only that, there's been no escape from the jail since 1989 and deputies were probably pretty complacent about anything exciting happening.

At LAT, "As manhunt for 3 inmates continues, experts dissect why it took the O.C. jail so long to detect the escape."

Plus, "Escaped inmates charged with new felonies as Orange County manhunt widens."

PREVIOUSLY: "Authorities Say Escaped Inmates Could Be 'Embedded with O.C.'s Vietnamese Community (VIDEO)."

Authorities Say Escaped Inmates Could Be 'Embedded with O.C.'s Vietnamese Community (VIDEO)

Some Vietnamese gang homies could be put up the escapees.

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



PREVIOUSLY: "Massive Manhunt Continues for Three Inmates Who Broke Out of Orange County Jail (VIDEO)."

Bernie Sanders Calls for a Political Revolution — #DemTownHall (VIDEO)

I've blogged this before. Sanders is consistent if anything.

From the town hall tonight:

Jackie's Back with Tuesday's Weather

It's been nice. Only a few sprinkles of rain here and there.

But here's Jackie:

Hillary Clinton's Lead Shrinks in New Nationwide CNN Poll; Bernie Sanders Surging (VIDEO)

Sanders is surging especially among young people. The buzz is that he's reassembling the Obama coalition from 2008.

We'll see. Anybody who puts the pressure on the Clinton machine's gonna get a little respect from me.

At CNN, "Poll: Clinton tops Sanders, but lead shrinks":

Washington (CNN)A majority of Democratic voters say Hillary Clinton is their top choice in the race for their party's nomination, but her margin over Bernie Sanders is smaller than it has been at any point since before the field narrowed to three.

According to a new nationwide CNN/ORC Poll, Clinton tops Sanders 52% to 38% among registered voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is far behind the two top candidates at just 2%.

Though Clinton's lead over Sanders remains in double-digits, these figures represent the tightest the contest has been since early September. Back then, before Vice President Joe Biden had opted out of the race and before the remaining Democratic field ever took to a debate stage, Clinton topped Sanders by just 10 points.

The poll findings come as the three remaining Democratic candidates prepare to make their final pitches to Iowa voters in a town hall set to air on CNN Monday night.

Though the national picture tilts in Clinton's direction, according to this poll, other recent surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire -- the two states hosting the first contests of the 2016 nomination battle -- suggest Clinton will face an uphill climb in trying to grab an early victory. Iowa polls find the top two Democrats near-even among that state's likely caucus-goers, while Sanders has something of a home-field advantage in New Hampshire and tops Clinton there handily.

The national survey shows a Democratic electorate sharply splintered along demographic lines.

Women, non-whites, self-identified Democrats and those over age 50 are Clinton's strongest backers. Men, white voters, independents who lean Democratic and younger voters are more apt to say they plan to support Sanders.

Only independents and younger voters, however, give Sanders a significant edge over the former secretary of state. Men and white voters are about evenly split between the two...

Keep reading. There's video at the link.

Donald Trump Supporters Brave Snow and Cold Ahead of Event in Sioux City, Iowa (VIDEO)

WATCH: Neil Cavuto talks to Byron York, on Fox News.

If folks are braving the harsh conditions to hear Trump speak, will they also make it out to the caucuses?

We'll know one week from today.

Conservative Icon Dana Loesch Discusses National Review's 'Against Trump' Issue on 'The Blaze' TV (VIDEO)

Following-up from previously, "Dana Loesch Attacked for Her Participation in National Review's Anti-Trump Issue."

Here's Dana. It's too bad that she even needs to make a clip like this, but the unhinged attacks have been off the charts.

Tian Tian the Panda Loves the Snow (VIDEO)

I saw folks mocking this video on Twitter, but I think it's great!

Watch, "Panda loves snow in Washington winter wonderland: Tian Tian, a male Panda at the Smithsonian National Zoological Park in Washington, DC, was clearly delighted to wake up to drifts of snow on Saturday."

Baltimore Residents Still Waiting for City Government to Clear Snow Off the Roads (VIDEO)

Baltimore's pretty much got the award wrapped up for worst-run city in America.

At the Baltimore Sun, "Baltimore City officials don't know how long it will take to clear snow":

On side streets where snow remains untouched, the mayor said, the fluffy powder has melted and re-frozen into unplowable masses that require construction equipment to pick up, load into dump trucks and drive away.

"It has only been 36 hours ago that the snow stopped falling in what was the largest snowfall in Baltimore's history," [Mayor Stephanie] Rawlings-Blake said. "Needless to say the recovery is going to take time."

And watch, at CBS News 13 Baltimore, "After Record Snowfall, Baltimore Residents Still Waiting For Streets to Be Cleared," and "Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake Provides City Update on Storm."

Selena Gomez and Chloe Moretz in 'Neighbors 2' (VIDEO)

Watch the trailer, here.

And at Egotastic, "SELENA GOMEZ AND CHLOE MORETZ BIKINI HOTNESS IN 'NEIGHBORS 2'."

Super Bowl 50 Set for Epic Contest Between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton (VIDEO)

Following-up from previously, "Ratings and Viewership Way Up for AFC and NFC Championship Games."

At CBS This Morning, "What to watch for in Broncos-Panthers matchup at Super Bowl 50."

Ratings and Viewership Way Up for AFC and NFC Championship Games

Especially the AFC match-up between the Broncos and the Patriots. Definitely an epic football game and it didn't disappoint.

At the Los Angeles Times:

Peyton Manning is returning to the Super Bowl, but you probably knew that. Chances are pretty good, in fact, that you were watching as he and the Denver Broncos punched their tickets to the big game with a 20-18 win over the New England Patriots in the AFC championship.

Turns out quite a few people spent their Sunday afternoon tuned in to the game on CBS -- 53.3 million to be exact. That's the second-most viewers ever for an AFC championship game, behind the 54.9 million who watched the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New York Jets in 2011.

That game, however, was shown in prime time back East. This year's AFC showdown was the earlier of the two NFL conference championship games...

And there's video here, "Every Touchdown from the Playoffs!"

Dude Builds Igloo and Lists It on Airbnb During New York Storm for $200

Heh.

At ABC News, "Airbnb Igloo Rental in New York Inspired by Winter Blizzard."

Got shut down by @Airbnb for not meeting occupancy standards. Though they were nice enough to tell us that it looked very well constructed.

— Patrick M. Horton (@patrickmhorton) January 25, 2016

Bar Refaeli’s the Gift That Keeps on Giving

At BroBible, "Bar Refaeli’s Been Posting Some Hot Topless Pics Because She’s the Gift That Keeps on Giving."

Crunchtime in Iowa (VIDEO)

WATCH: Here's the coverage this morning from ABC News, "Presidential Candidates Countdown to the Iowa Caucus."

Donald Trump's Unique Playbook in Iowa

He's got a unique playbook everywhere, not just Iowa.

Nevertheless, here's Politico, "Trump follows his own unique Iowa playbook":

His rivals may be camped out there until Feb. 1 but he's thinking bigger — an early-voting state sweep.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Republican presidential candidates are frantically crisscrossing Iowa telling caucus-goers they are the only voters in the world that matter. But not front-runner Donald Trump.

While Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are camped out here until the Feb. 1 caucuses, Trump is following a different playbook.

He’s got a 757, and he’s flying it around the country in the final week regardless of what his rivals are doing. After barnstorming in Iowa over the weekend — he even overnighted in Sioux City — Trump has trips planned for New Hampshire on Monday and South Carolina on Wednesday, just days before the Iowa verdict is rendered.

Trump’s confidence — or maybe overconfidence — has his campaign dreaming of an early-state sweep. “It gives us a mandate,” Trump said of securing a victory in Iowa.

His momentum is hard to deny. Both the Cruz and Rubio camps privately acknowledge they very well might finish in second or third place here. Trump has even attracted establishment politicians like Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley to one of his rallies, something that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

While Grassley, an Iowa GOP icon, hasn’t endorsed Trump — the veteran senator still plans to appear with other candidates — he borrowed Trump’s slogan over the weekend, declaring it was time to “Make America great again.”

Trump continues to preach urgency to his Iowa faithful, even if his flight manifest tells a different story. “If you lose your wife, if you lose your husband — I don’t care. You’ve got to caucus,” Trump told about 500 people Saturday at Central College in Pella, Iowa.

Actually, that overnighter in Iowa is more in line with breaking the mold for the Trump campaign. He normally flies back to New York or Florida after hitting the Hawkeye State. See, "Donald Trump Aims to Win in Iowa."

But, yeah, I think the "Trumpmentum" at this point is pretty much insurmountable.

I can't believe that the polls are going to be wrong after they've consistently had Trump leading the national race for months, and this last few weeks in Iowa. Frankly, it's that nagging question about the ground game that's the only thing that's unsettled. And when you think about it, maybe even talk of "grassroots mobilizing" is old-fashioned this time around. Trump's reality-showman campaign might just boost untold numbers of first-time caucus-goes out on election night.

Pretty phenomenal.

More at the link, in any case.

East Coast Region Reported Snowfalls Not Seen in Generations (VIDEO)

At the New York Times, "After East Coast Blizzard, the Cleanup and the Workweek Begin":

While New York City emerged from the season’s first blizzard with relatively little damage, the toll along the Eastern Seaboard as a whole was more sobering: 29 deaths related to the storm, thousands of homes without power and serious flooding in coastal areas.

The great dig-out began with officials in New York lifting a travel ban, and airlines and commuter railroads slowly resumed service.

In separate appearances on CNN on Monday morning, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said that most mass transportation services were operating normally for the morning commute, with the exception of some parts of the Long Island Rail Road, where workers were still struggling to remove snow and ice.

But in other places along the East Coast, the tone was less upbeat.

In Baltimore, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said on Sunday that she could not give a timeline for clearing the streets. In Washington, the leadership of the House of Representatives — scheduled to convene on Monday for a pro forma session — said no votes would be held this week. Federal offices will be closed on Monday, as will state offices in Maryland and Virginia.

“This was a major event,” Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia said during a news conference. “I caution everybody, this is going to take a long time to clean up this snow.” He said that crews from as far away as Connecticut were on the way to help.

For officials, Sunday was a day to transition from blizzard mode to cleanup. For those with no official role to play, it was a day for sledding, snowboarding or snowshoeing — or lobbing snowballs and building snowmen. The bleak gray of Saturday — and the piercing wind that drove the snow — gave way to bright colors on Sunday, with a warm orange sun climbing across a brilliant azure sky.

Officials prepared for Monday and the start of the workweek, when a challenge would be moving commuters over rail lines stiff from the weekend’s assault of snow and punishing temperatures. New York City, where schools will be open,faced another challenge — picking up busloads of schoolchildren in streets with snowdrifts on every corner.

On Monday morning, yellow school buses struggled and hordes of parents with small children staggered, but school started on schedule in Corona, Queens, after students arrived through streets still caked in snow.

“The mayor made his decision yesterday; school is open, so I don’t want him to miss a day,” said Luis Molina, 56, a cleaner, after he hugged and kissed his son, Jason Molina, 10, who is in fourth grade at Public School 19.

The storm swirled out to sea after brushing Massachusetts, leaving behind what the National Weather Service called “copious” accumulations from Virginia to New York: 29.2 inches at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, a record; 22.4 inches at Philadelphia International Airport; and 28.1 inches at Newark Liberty International Airport. In Washington, the National Zoo reported 22.4 inches for the weekend, and other places reported totals not seen in years if not generations: 28.2 inches in Roselle Park, N.J.; 33.5 inches in Frederick, Md.; 39 inches in Philomont, Va.; and 42 inches in Glengary, W.Va.

The Weather Service recorded 26.8 inches in Central Park, missing a record by one-tenth of an inch. But Saturday’s total of 26.6 inches was a record for a single day (the other 0.2 inches fell on Friday). The one-day record beat 24.1 inches, set during a two-day storm in 2006. That storm retained its place as the city’s snowiest.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said that major roads had been cleared by Sunday afternoon, putting much of the city in a position to ease back into weekday commuting routines on Monday. Tunnels and bridges into the city, all of which had been closed during the storm, reopened on Sunday, according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Service had been suspended during the storm on the Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North Railroad, as well as the aboveground routes of the subway and on the Staten Island Railway. All started rolling again on Sunday, though some remained on reduced schedules. Buses in the city also returned to the streets...

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Digging Out in Queens and the Bronx (VIDEO)."

Digging Out in Queens and the Bronx (VIDEO)

Folks want to get back to their regular routines, like going to work, heh.

At CBS News 2 New York:

Katrina Pierson Defends Donald Trump's 'Controversial' Remarks (VIDEO)'

Following-up, "Donald Trump Says: I Could 'Shoot Somebody, and I Wouldn't Lose Any Voters...' (VIDEO)."

Ms. Pierson's on with Martha McCallum, on America's Newsroom.

Surfing and Sailing in French Polynesia (VIDEO)

That's the life, via Roxy:

We’re no strangers to the Tahitian islands and the warm, inviting Polynesian charm that inevitably draws us back time and time again. For our latest campaign shoot we rediscovered paradise amongst the spellbinding azure lagoons, lush tropical jungle and whitewashed beaches of French Polynesia.

Authorities Search Southern California for Escaped Orange County Inmates (VIDEO)

This story's getting national news coverage.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Authorities search Southern California for 3 inmates who escaped O.C. jail."

And at CBS This Morning, "Manhunt for three California prisoners after daring jailbreak."

Outsiders' Momentum Builds as Iowa Looms

So, any bets on both Trump and Sanders to win the caucuses?

At USA Today, "Political outsiders surge in Iowa in last week before caucuses":

WASHINGTON — With just a week left until the Iowa Caucus, "outsider" presidential candidates Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders appeared to be building momentum over "establishment" candidates and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hinted he might enter the race as an independent.

The influential Des Moines Register Saturday night endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the Republican race, rejecting Trump and Sanders in favor of Rubio's  "optimism" and Clinton's experience. But Sanders held a narrow lead over Clinton in a CBS Iowa poll released Sunday. In a new Fox News poll, Trump held a sizable lead over Cruz with Rubio in third place; Cruz had held the lead in the same poll three weeks ago. The CBS poll showed the same top three for the Republicans.

The poll results gave new weight to a New York Times report over the weekend that Bloomberg has instructed his advisers to draw up plans for a potential presidential bid and will make a decision by early March. Bloomberg would offer himself as a moderate alternative if it appears likely that Trump or Cruz will win the GOP nomination and Sanders will become the Democratic nominee, the Times reported.

Clinton said Sunday that won't be necessary because she will ultimately win the Democratic nomination. Even if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire — where he is ahead in polls — Clinton's campaign believes she has the advantage in other early primary states such as South Carolina and Nevada, where her strong support among African American and Latino voters could help her prevail.

"The way I read what he (Bloomberg) said is if I didn’t get the nomination, he might consider it," Clinton said on NBC’s Meet the Press. "Well, I’m going to relieve him of that and get the nomination so he doesn’t have to (run)."

The candidates are continuing to converge on Iowa between now and the Feb. 1 caucus day. Candidates from both parties have scheduled a total of nearly 100 campaign appearances in the state over the next week, according to a list compiled by the Des Moines Register. Republicans will also hold another debate Thursday in Des Moines, hosted by Fox News.

Sanders, a Democratic Socialist who often rails against the wealth and power of the top 1%, said he would welcome the prospect of facing two billionaires if Trump wins the GOP nomination and Bloomberg enters the race.

"I think the American people do not want to see our nation move toward an oligarchy, where billionaires control the political process," Sanders said on Meet the Press. "I think we’ll win that election."

While Trump and Cruz battle it out for the conservative wing of the GOP, Rubio was working to position himself as a more mainstream alternative...

Still more.

And if Bloomberg enters the race regardless...

Geert Wilders Hands Out Self-Defense Sprays Against 'Islamic Testosterone Bombs' (VIDEO)

He's been sounding the tocsin for years.

Via Euronews:

Fox News Poll: 28 Percent of Those Who've Caucused Before Favor Donald Trump; 25 Percent Ted Cruz (VIDEO)

But 43 percent of those who've never caucused favor Trump, versus 19 percent for Cruz --- so the whole thing's going to boil down to turnout. If the Trump campaign's really ramped up the ground game, the betting odds favor a win for the Manhattan real estate billionaire, according to the Fox News pundits.

This is so crazy, heh.

Here's the video, featuring Harris Faulkner, Pat Caddell, Ed Rollins, and Douglas Schoen.

And click through on Twitter, "Fox News Poll: Trump gains in Iowa, still dominates in New Hampshire."

Annet Mahendru on 'The X-Files'

She starred as "Sveta" on tonight's opening episode of 'The X-Files" reprise, and she's on Twitter.

And some bikini photos, "Annet Mahendru, Esquire Magazine, March 1, 2014."

More here.

BONUS: At the Wall Street Journal, "‘The X-Files’ Recap: ‘My Struggle’."

Donald Trump Aims to Win in Iowa

From Maggie Haberman, at the New York Times, "Donald Trump Means Business in Iowa: Night in Motel, and a Day in Church":

MUSCATINE, Iowa — Donald J. Trump spent the last seven months saying he wanted to win. Now he is really acting like it.

On Thursday night, minutes after National Review published a call-to-arms cover story blasting Mr. Trump as a wrecking ball to the conservative movement, his campaign manager leaned on the Republican National Committee, which promptly dropped the magazine as a co-host of a presidential debate in February. Then Mr. Trump turned a sleepy hunting trade show into breaking national news, calling National Review “a dying paper” and excoriating his leading rival, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, before live television cameras.

On Friday night, the candidate who almost always flies home in his private Boeing 757 to Trump Tower in New York or to his palatial Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., instead slept in a Holiday Inn Express in Sioux City, Iowa. (“Good mattress,” he said afterward. “Clean.”)

And on Sunday morning, no doubt mindful that Mr. Cruz is counting on conservative Christians to carry him to victory in this state’s caucuses, Mr. Trump showed up for church here in eastern Iowa, with photographers trailing, sat quietly through the 60-minute service, left two crisp $50 bills in the collection plate and shook hands all around, before resuming his attack on Mr. Cruz at a news conference and rally nearby.

Classic rapid response, pragmatic logistics and overt shows of faith are all basic parts of the job of running for president. But for Mr. Trump, they have been only sporadically employed. Yet with each day, evidence accumulates that the master of the New York tabloids now grasps what it will take for him to win in Iowa, and beyond — and that he is laser-focused on doing it.

“It’s crunchtime, folks,” Mr. Trump said backstage before his rally here on Sunday. “I mean, I want to win Iowa. I really want to win it.”

It did not always seem so. At the outset in June, his candidacy was received as equal parts experiment and experimental theater — a test of an aggressively populist political message coupled with a stare-down of skeptics who treated his recurring threats to run for president as an empty play for publicity. Mr. Trump still recalls, often and with a bit of an edge, how many people predicted that he would never formally get into the race, or would prematurely get out...

Yes, in fact Ms. Haberman wrote about precisely that last October. See, "From Donald Trump, Hints of a Campaign Exit Strategy."

Disenchanted Economically and Unsettled by Cultural Differences, Refugees Regret Migration to Germany

Well, Germany's not so welcoming after all, and besides, lots of those so-called "refugees" are making it hard to be a migrant over there.

At the Wall Street Journal, "Some Migrants in Germany Want to Go Home":

BERLIN—In October, Amer sold all his belongings in Syria and took his family to a safer life in Germany. Four months later, he wants to return to a country still at war.

Once in Germany, Amer discovered an unexpected reality: Instead of the small house he was hoping for and money to help him open a business, he was given a bare room in an old administrative building turned into an emergency shelter. Now he is packing his bags again.

“I came to Germany because everyone was saying it was heaven. Now I regret that decision,” said the 30-year-old from Damascus.

Last year, 1.1 million migrants—mainly Arabs, Afghans and Africans—came to Germany to escape war and hardship, many of them risking their lives to make the dangerous journey. Authorities have scrambled to accommodate the influx and Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing growing public discontent, especially after the alleged role of foreign-born men in the mass assaults in Cologne on New Year’s Eve.

But many who arrive find the country doesn’t match their often inflated expectations. They balk at modest benefits, poor job prospects, and harsh treatment at immigration offices, and voice other complaints ranging from bland food to Germans’ open attitudes about sex.

Some recent arrivals are now contemplating leaving, shining light on the enormous challenge the country faces in integrating the record numbers who continue to stream in.

Ms. Merkel has said the best path to integration is through work, but most migrants face a long road from the cots of emergency shelters to finding housing and employment.

Economists have warned that migrants with low skills, like Amer, stand little chance of ever finding jobs. While some political leaders say the new migrants will help offset a dearth of German workers in the future, critics say they could become a long-term burden on German taxpayers...

Pretty screwed up situation all around, it looks like. Mostly to assuage Germany's post-WWII guilt too.

So stupid. Germany should just act like a normal country instead of trying to be a humanitarian superpower. It's not working out too well.

GRAPHIC: Islamic State Releases New Propaganda Video Showing Beheading of Hostages, Warning of More Attacks in the West

Watch, with an extreme content warning, at Zero Censorship, "New ISIS Execution Video - Paris Attackers Beheading & Shooting Hostages [GRAPHIC]."

At the Telegraph UK, "Isil releases beheading video featuring Paris attackers":

Abu Qital al-Faransi and Bilal Hadfi appear in the video, which was shot before the Paris attacks but has now been published.

The gunmen behind the Paris terror attacks have appeared in a newly released Isil video in which they behead several unidentified hostages.

The footage was shot before the attacks took place in November 2015 but was published on Sunday evening.

It is unclear when exactly the footage was filmed.

Among those who carry out the beheadings in the video is Bilal Hadfi, who was killed during the Paris attacks.

"You destroy our homes and kill our fathers, our brothers, our sisters, our mothers and our children," he says into the camera during the footage.

The video also features Abu Qital al-Faransi, his nom-de-guerre, who is believed to have been one of the gunmen who opened fire in the Bataclan.

"Whoever stands in the ranks of the kuffar (enemy), will be a target for our swords,” the video warned, showing pictures of Tower Bridge and St Paul’s Cathedral in London, claiming they were ready to strike “any time, anywhere”.

A few minutes later the face of John Bercow, the speaker of the House of Commons, appears on the screen with a crosshair over his face.

Then the footage ends with the message "Whoever stands in the ranks of Kufr will be a target for our swords and will fall in humiliation" superimposed over an image of David Cameron...

More.

Also at NYT, "ISIS Video Appears to Show Paris Assailants Earlier in Syria and Iraq."

And from Pamela Geller, "WATCH Shocking VIDEO of ISIS Paris attackers carrying out beheadings as they threaten MORE MASSACRES in the West."

Photos from the Orange County Jailbreak (VIDEO)

Following-up from last night, "Massive Manhunt Continues for Three Inmates Who Broke Out of Orange County Jail (VIDEO)."

Now here's the latest, at the O.C. Register, "O.C. Sheriff's photos show how inmates made bold jailbreak."

And at the Sheriff's Twitter page, here, here, and here.

They're supposed to be having a news conference right now, so perhaps we'll have some key updates.

MORE: At ABC News 7 Los Angeles, "$50,000 REWARD OFFERED AS MANHUNT FOR 3 ESCAPED INMATES CONTINUES."

Denver Broncos Beat New England Patriots 20-18 in #AFCChampionship (VIDEO)

Here's a video, from the NFL, "Broncos Bench Gets a Kick out of Peyton Manning's Big Run."

That game went right down to the wire. Tom Brady and company had heart. But Stephen Gostkowski's missed point after made the difference.

At LAT, "Broncos defeat Patriots, 20-18, to advance to Super Bowl 50."

Des Moines Register Endorses Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio for President (VIDEO)

This was probably the only significant political news all day, and still, newspaper endorsement just don't mean that much anymore.

At the Des Moines Register, "Endorsement: Hillary Clinton has needed knowledge, experience," and "Endorsement: Marco Rubio can chart new direction for GOP."

No doubt Bernie Sanders would have loved the Register's endorsement. On the GOP side, I doubt Donald Trump could care less.

El Niño's Helping, But Still a Ways to Go

It's the state's reservoirs. They're not nearly filled yet. Even with the dense snowpack so far, it'll take quite a few more storms to get back near 100 percent.

Still, it sure feels a lot better than just months ago. The recent storms have hit the Sierra Nevadas particularly hard, right where we need it.

At the Los Angeles Times, "El Niño inspires hope of 'major dent' in drought, but empty reservoirs point to long recovery."

And see, "California has 'a shot out of the drought' if El Niño rain persists."

Near-Record Blizzard Pounds the Eastern United States (VIDEO)

At the New York Times, "Major Cities Grind to a Halt and Face Days of Digging Out Snow."

And at CBS News 2 New York:

Dana Loesch Attacked for Her Participation in National Review's Anti-Trump Issue

The attacks don't do Trump supporters any favors. It's been pretty pathetic actually.

Check Dana's Twitter feed. She's been retweeting the hate.

And see Gateway Pundit, "Awful. Conservative Dana Loesch Suffers Disgusting Abuse After Voicing Opinion Against Trump."

Trump's backers don't look any different from the leftist haters, frankly.

I'm appalled.

Donald Trump Says: I Could 'Shoot Somebody, and I Wouldn't Lose Any Voters...' (VIDEO)

At the Los Angeles Times, "Donald Trump says he could 'shoot somebody' and not lose voters."

Jennifer Jason Leigh Hourglass Figure at the Producers Guild Awards

I've loved this lady since the 1980s. She's been making movies a long time and still look great.

At London's Daily Mail, "Jennifer Jason Leigh showcases hourglass figure in form-fitting strapless gown at Producers Guild Awards."

Massive Manhunt Continues for Three Inmates Who Broke Out of Orange County Jail (VIDEO)

Heh.

This is a total Wild West story!

At the O.C. Register, "Manhunt on after 3 inmates cut through steel bars and plumbing tunnels to escape O.C. jail."

Judge Jeanine Pirro: 'The Establishment Is Scared' of Donald Trump (VIDEO)

Watch, via Fox News, "Judge Jeanine: 'The Establishment Is Scared' of Trump."

Eva Moskowitz Denies Success Academy Discriminates Against Disabled Students

Background here, at NYT, "Filing Alleges Bias at Success Academy Network Against Students With Disabilities."

And Moskowitz, the founder of the academy, responds, "Success Academy Founder Defends Schools Against Charges of Bias":

Eva S. Moskowitz defended her Success Academy charter schools on Friday, two days after a group of parents filed a federal complaint accusing the network of discriminating against students with disabilities.

The complaint, which was filed on Wednesday with the Office of Civil Rights at the federal Education Department, claimed that Success Academy repeatedly suspended and, in some cases, pushed out students with disabilities from its schools. It asserted that Success had repeatedly violated the Individuals With Disabilities Education Act by not offering alternative instruction to students with disabilities who were suspended, and by not holding hearings to determine whether the students’ behavior stemmed from their disabilities, and whether the schools needed to provide them with additional services.

On Friday, speaking at a public policy breakfast at New York Law School, Ms. Moskowitz, the network’s founder, offered a vigorous defense of her schools. She said that while Success had room to improve how it served students with disabilities, she had a “fundamental disagreement” with her critics about student discipline.

“Safety is the No. 1 reason parents want out of the district schools,” she said. She said the network’s discipline policies, including suspension for violent behavior, were necessary to ensure a safe and orderly environment in which children could learn.

She also rejected the criticism that students who are repeatedly suspended at Success suffer because of missed instructional time. She said that, with longer days and a longer school year, Success offered the equivalent of 55 more days of instruction than regular public schools. Therefore, she said, it was “simply not the case” that students who were suspended missed a problematic amount of instruction.

Ms. Moskowitz also sought to cast doubt on the credibility of parents who claimed that Success had suspended their children without justification, saying that parents frequently refused to believe that their children had behaved violently.

Fatima Geidi, one of the parents who filed the federal complaint on Wednesday, also filed one late last year with the Office of Civil Rights, accusing Success of discriminating on the basis of race, color, national origin and disability, by imposing harsher punishments on African-American and Hispanic students, students learning English and students with disabilities than it did on other students.

On Thursday, the Office of Civil Rights told her that it would conduct an investigation of her earlier charges, she said. It also said in a letter that it was already conducting a compliance review of Success, examining whether the network discriminated against students with disabilities “by disciplining them more frequently and more harshly than similarly situated, non-disabled students.”

Ms. Geidi’s son, who has attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, attended Success Academy Upper West from 2011 to 2014, from which he was frequently suspended...

More.

The Times had a piece back in October, "At a Success Academy Charter School, Singling Out Pupils Who Have ‘Got to Go’," which caused quite a stir.

The Frustration Campaign

From Elizabeth Drew, at the New York Review, "The New Politics of Frustration."

Haiti Delays Presidential Runoff Again in Electoral Dispute (VIDEO)

At the New York Times, "Haiti Postpones Presidential Runoff as Violence Rises."

Katrina Pierson Responds to National Review's Anti-Trump Issue (VIDEO)

She's good.

I've been impressed with her media savvy.

With Gretchen Carlson, at Fox News:

National Review's Unwise Excommunication of Donald Trump

It's a crisis of conservatism, and the splits are more severe than I've seen since --- well, ever.

I thought it was bad in 2008 when John McCain won the nomination. But folks on Twitter are saying they've never seen anything like this.

Here's Laura Ingraham, who's of course a major figure in movement conservatism, at LifeZette, "National Review’s Unwise Pig Pile on Donald Trump":

I think National Review, in its issue dedicated to taking down GOP front-runner Donald Trump, has made a big mistake. With so much on the line for America, how is it smart to close the door to Trump’s voters and to populism in general?

The folks at NR launched a similar effort to excommunicate conservatives in 2003, with a much-hyped cover story titled “Unpatriotic Conservatives.” Back then it was Pat Buchanan and the now-deceased Bob Novak who were the targets. Former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum, a dear friend, made the case that these men and others who stood against our invasion of Iraq, had “made common cause with the left-wing and Islamist antiwar movements.” In other words, these “disgruntled paleos,” weren’t truly conservative because they opposed the war in Iraq.

As it turned out, of course, that small band of thinkers knew more about what was in the national interest than anyone at National Review or myself, who was also a strong advocate for Operation Iraqi Freedom.

“I never received an apology note,” Buchanan told me on my radio show. “They’re Davos conservatives,” he added, referencing the annual meeting of the world’s elites in Switzerland.

Whatever you think of Trump personally, his supporters are pushing for three big things:

* A return to traditional GOP law and order practices when it comes to illegal immigration.
* A return to a more traditional GOP foreign policy that would put the national interest ahead of globalism.
* A return to a more traditional GOP trade policy that would analyze trade deals from the perspective of the country as a whole and not blindly support any deal — even one negotiated by President Obama.

On each of these issues, Trump's voters are calling for a return to policies that were GOP orthodoxy as recently as the late 1990s.

The matriarch of the conservative movement, Phyllis Schlafly, who likes but isn’t endorsing Trump, put it this way: "I’m not going to tell you that Donald Trump is perfect, or right on everything … but immigration is the top issue today, and he’s the one who made it a front-burner issue."

By refusing to make room for these ideas within conservatism, NR risks creating the impression that the revolution brought about by George W. Bush — in particular, his belief in open borders, his effort to create a permanent U.S. military mission in the Middle East, and his notion that trade can never be regulated, no matter how unfair — is now a permanent part of conservatism that can never be questioned. They are also inviting those who disagree with Bush on those points to leave conservatism and start seeking their allies elsewhere.
This is an absolute disaster for conservatism. It is obvious by now that Bushism — however well-intentioned it may appear on paper — does not work for the average American. It is also clear that Bushism has almost no support within the rank and file of the GOP, much less within the country as a whole. Making the tenets of Bushism into an orthodoxy that conservatives cannot question will cripple conservatism for years to come.

If blue-collar Americans are told that their concerns on immigration, trade, and foreign policy cannot be addressed within the conservative movement, they will look elsewhere — just as they looked elsewhere in the late 1960s after they learned that their problems couldn't be addressed within liberalism. National Review Editor Rich Lowry and his people will be left preaching their narrow doctrine to a smaller and smaller audience.

Back in 2008, another populist was running for president, and ended up winning the Iowa caucuses. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who’s running again in 2016, sympathized with Trump in the NR dust-up. Recalling that the publication also took after him during his primary fight with Arizona Sen. John McCain, he said, "This is a fool-hearty effort … [by] the elitists who live in their own little bubble."

NR is "completely out of touch … [and] represents big business, not the American people," he added, noting NR’s support for the 5,500-page Trans-Pacific Partnership. "Out here in Iowa, they are not representative and their views are not representative."

Of course there is ample room to criticize Trump’s approach and his lapse into sloganeering where substance is needed — as I have done on many occasions. But if NR rejects the Trump voters, it will be reversing the decision by Ronald Reagan, William F. Buckley, and others to welcome blue-collar voters, Democrats, and independents into the conservative fold. Whatever that means for the country, it will do major damage to conservatism. If the conservative movement devotes itself to defending the legacy of George W. Bush at all costs, it will become irrelevant to the debate over how to make things better for most Americans...

That's gonna leave a mark.

Still more.

Ammon Bundy Talks to FBI in Effort to End Occupation of #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)

It's be three weeks since the start of the occupation. Maybe folks would like it to finally wind down.

At the Portland Oregonian, "FBI and Oregon standoff leaders begin negotiations to end refuge occupation":

BURNS – Ammon Bundy, standing in a biting, freezing wind Thursday at the police blockade to the local airport, borrowed a cellphone from an FBI agent.

On the other end was an FBI negotiator who identified himself to Bundy only as "Chris."

And so opened talks between the leader of the refuge occupation and the federal agency in charge of bringing an end to the armed takeover, now in its third week.

For nearly an hour around noontime, the negotiator listened to Bundy's well-practiced litany of complaints against the federal government while probing for what it would take to end his occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

They ended the call with the promise to talk again Friday.

Bundy and Ryan Payne, another takeover organizer, said the FBI reached out by phone and by messenger starting two days ago.

Bundy said he had 14 voice messages Wednesday from the negotiator – the same day that Gov. Kate Brown publicly scolded federal officials for what she said was their slow approach to ending the Harney County standoff...

More.

I'm hoping it all winds down non-violently. Everyone's heavily armed up there.

Rachel Harris, Playmate of the Month November 2015, Carries on the Tradition (VIDEO)

Hey, the centerfold models are almost a thing of the past at Playboy.

Fortunately, Ms. Harris did her duty.

Watch, "Rachel Harris wants you to know she’s not a model — she’s an artist."

More, "Rachel Harris Playboy Playmate of the Month November 2015."

Two Versions of America Emerge in Presidential Campaign

From Ronald Brownstein, at National Journal, "Race, religion, and ethnicity divide the country between what it was and what it is becoming":

The cul­tur­al and demo­graph­ic gulf between the Re­pub­lic­an and Demo­crat­ic elect­or­al co­ali­tions can now be meas­ured not just in space, but time.

Today, the two parties rep­res­ent not only dif­fer­ent sec­tions of the coun­try, but also, in ef­fect, dif­fer­ent edi­tions of the coun­try. Along many key meas­ures, the Re­pub­lic­an co­ali­tion mir­rors what all of Amer­ic­an so­ci­ety looked like dec­ades ago. Across those same meas­ures, the Demo­crat­ic co­ali­tion rep­res­ents what Amer­ica might be­come in dec­ades ahead. The parties’ ever-es­cal­at­ing con­flict rep­res­ents not only an ideo­lo­gic­al and par­tis­an stale­mate. It also en­cap­su­lates our col­lect­ive fail­ure to find com­mon cause between what Amer­ica has been, and what it is be­com­ing.

The two dif­fer­ent Amer­icas em­bod­ied by the parties are out­lined by race.

In 2012, whites ac­coun­ted for about 90 per­cent of both the bal­lots cast in the Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial primar­ies and the votes Mitt Rom­ney re­ceived in the gen­er­al elec­tion. The last time whites rep­res­en­ted 90 per­cent of the total Amer­ic­an pop­u­la­tion was 1960. Eth­nic groups now equal just over 37 per­cent of Amer­ic­ans. But voters of col­or ac­coun­ted for nearly 45 per­cent of Pres­id­ent Obama’s votes in 2012. Eth­nic minor­it­ies likely won’t equal that much of the total pop­u­la­tion for about an­oth­er 15 years.

Re­li­gion also re­in­forces the parties’ con­trast­ing Amer­icas.

White Chris­ti­ans ac­count for 69 per­cent of all adults who identi­fy as Re­pub­lic­ans, ac­cord­ing to the Pew Re­search Cen­ter’s massive re­li­gious-land­scape sur­vey. The last time white Chris­ti­ans equaled that much of Amer­ica’s total pop­u­la­tion was 1984—the year of Ron­ald Re­agan’s land­slide reelec­tion. Today, white Chris­ti­ans have fallen be­low ma­jor­ity status, to just 46 per­cent of the adult pop­u­la­tion. The change is even more pro­nounced among Demo­crats, less than one-third of whom are white Chris­ti­ans. An­oth­er third of Demo­crats are non­white Chris­ti­ans.

But the party’s largest group (around 35 per­cent) is com­prised of people from all races who identi­fy with non-Chris­ti­an faiths, or in­creas­ingly, with no re­li­gious tra­di­tion. Those non-Chris­ti­ans are grow­ing rap­idly across Amer­ic­an so­ci­ety—but in the en­tire pop­u­la­tion they likely won’t match their cur­rent level among Demo­crats un­til after 2020.

Sim­il­arly, data from Pew’s re­li­gious-land­scape study shows that nearly three-fifths of Re­pub­lic­ans are mar­ried—a level last reached in the over­all adult pop­u­la­tion in 1994. Today just un­der half of Amer­ic­an adults are mar­ried. Among Demo­crats, the num­ber is lower still: barely over two-in-five. Like­wise, the share of Re­pub­lic­ans who live in a house­hold with a gun (54 per­cent) equals the share in so­ci­ety over­all in 1993. Since then, gun own­er­ship among the gen­er­al pop­u­la­tion has dropped to about 40 per­cent, while fall­ing even lower (around one-fourth) among Demo­crats.

From these con­trast­ing ex­per­i­ences, the parties now sep­ar­ate, above all, by their at­ti­tude to­ward the grow­ing di­versity and cul­tur­al changes re­mak­ing Amer­ica...

Well, it's interesting, to say the least.

I was thinking just this morning if Donald Trump could build some kind of wall to keep out terrible Chinese drivers. They're everywhere in Irvine and they drive me crazy!

But keep reading.

And ICYMI, "Obscure Pat Buchanan Adviser in 1996 Predicted Wild Donald Trump Campaign of 2016."

Massive Sinkhole on Interstate 8 in San Diego (VIDEO)

Heh.

The East Coast's got nothing on us!

At the San Diego Union-Tribune, "I-8 sinkhole snarls traffic for miles."

And watch, at ABC News 10 San Diego, "Investigation into cause of massive sinkhole on I-8 in College area."

I-8 sinkhole falls into our #PicturesOfTheDay gallery https://t.co/dCkAlVB5SP pic.twitter.com/Du8B0xirdq

— U-T Photography (@sdutPhotography) January 22, 2016

Obscure Pat Buchanan Adviser in 1996 Predicted Wild Donald Trump Campaign of 2016

Via Andrea Tantaros, see Michael Brendan Dougherty, at the Week, "How an obscure adviser to Pat Buchanan predicted the wild Trump campaign in 1996":

[S]ooner or later, as the globalist elites seek to drag the country into conflicts and global commitments, preside over the economic pastoralization of the United States, manage the delegitimization of our own culture, and the dispossession of our people, and disregard or diminish our national interests and national sovereignty, a nationalist reaction is almost inevitable and will probably assume populist form when it arrives. The sooner it comes, the better… [Samuel Francis in Chronicles]

Imagine giving this advice to a Republican presidential candidate: What if you stopped calling yourself a conservative and instead just promised to make America great again?

What if you dropped all this leftover 19th-century piety about the free market and promised to fight the elites who were selling out American jobs? What if you just stopped talking about reforming Medicare and Social Security and instead said that the elites were failing to deliver better health care at a reasonable price? What if, instead of vainly talking about restoring the place of religion in society — something that appeals only to a narrow slice of Middle America — you simply promised to restore the Middle American core — the economic and cultural losers of globalization — to their rightful place in America? What if you said you would restore them as the chief clients of the American state under your watch, being mindful of their interests when regulating the economy or negotiating trade deals?

That's pretty much the advice that columnist Samuel Francis gave to Pat Buchanan in a 1996 essay, "From Household to Nation," in Chronicles magazine. Samuel Francis was a paleo-conservative intellectual who died in 2005. Earlier in his career he helped Senator East of North Carolina oppose the Martin Luther King holiday. He wrote a white paper recommending the Reagan White House use its law enforcement powers to break up and harass left-wing groups. He was an intellectual disciple of James Burnham's political realism, and Francis' political analysis always had a residue of Burnham's Marxist sociology about it. He argued that the political right needed to stop playing defense — the globalist left won the political and cultural war a long time ago — and should instead adopt the insurgent strategy of communist intellectual Antonio Gramsci. Francis eventually turned into a something resembling an all-out white nationalist, penning his most racist material under a pen name. Buchanan didn't take Francis' advice in 1996, not entirely. But 20 years later, "From Household to Nation," reads like a political manifesto from which the Trump campaign springs...

Keep reading.

That's exactly right.

Recall, as I wrote last night when the National Review hit piece went live:

Folks like Trump because they believe he'll fight for their values. They don't care if he can articulate them perfectly well. He's hits the bullseye when he stands up for the working-class downtrodden, to say nothing of the Great White Nationalists. Yep, I said it. You can't understand his success unless you see Trump's rise as a revolt against the politically correct, pro-diversity establishmentarians of both parties. Trump's especially got the GOPe running scared.

All of this is reminding me of the late Samuel Huntington's path-breaking book, Who Are We?: The Challenges to America's National Identity.

At the time (Huntington's book came out in 2004), Who Are We sounded the tocsin but was decidedly a voice in the wilderness. If Huntington were around today, he'd be cheering on Donald Trump and saying to the downtrodden Middle American Proletariat, "what took you so long?"

Republican Establishment Warms to Donald Trump; Remains Cool to Ted Cruz

This seems to be the big trend, despite the hackneyed palpitations of the folks at National Review.

At WaPo, "GOP establishment warms to Trump — and remains cool toward Cruz":

The Republican establishment — once seen as the force that would destroy Donald Trump’s outsider candidacy — is now learning to live with it, with some elected and unelected leaders saying they see an upside to Trump as the nominee.

In the past few days, Trump has received unlikely public praise from GOP luminaries who said they would prefer him to his main rival, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

In private, some veteran conservative Republicans have been reaching out to Trump. And Trump himself called the ultimate establishment figure in Washington, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, for a talk late last year.

“If it came down to Trump or Cruz, there is no question I’d vote for Trump,” said former New York mayor and 2008 presidential candidate Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has not endorsed a candidate. “As a party, we’d have a better chance of winning with him, and I think a lot of Republicans look at it that way.”

This warming toward Trump comes after establishment favorites such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida governor Jeb Bush have failed to reach the top tier. It signals that, among the party’s entrenched elites, there is a growing fear that none of those candidates may be able to beat both Trump and Cruz...

More.

Here's That Jackie Johnson Fitness Stretching Video You Were All Eagerly Awaiting!

She's so lovely --- it's nice to see her doing something in addition to the weather.

At CBS News 2 Los Angeles, "Fit Tips on 2: How to relax your muscles while under stress. Jackie Johnson reports."

Hillary Clinton Claims It's Bernie Sanders Who's Really the 'Establishment' Candidate (VIDEO)

Heh.

I'd pretty much forgotten about Rachel Maddow, what, with the (further) decline of the far-left hack channel MSNBC.

But here she is from last night, "Bernie Sanders Clarifies 'Establishment' Remarks."

I'll bet Maddow's actually pretty torn between Clinton and Sanders. What's more important? Feminism or socialism?

You be the judge, lol.

Also, at RCP, "Hillary Clinton: I Don't Understand What Bernie Sanders Means by 'Establishment'."

National Review Declares Donald Trump a 'Menace to American Conservatism' (VIDEO)

Here's Chris Stirewalt's analysis of the whole National Review brouhaha, with Bill Hemmer during the opening segment of "America's Newsroom."

Watch, "National Review: Trump a 'Menace to American Conservatism'."

And, ICYMI, "Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial."

Donald Trump's 'Clear Difference' Campaign Spot Slams Ted Cruz on Amnesty (VIDEO)

Well, if folks were waiting for the negative portion of the presidential campaign, wait no longer, heh.

Everybody's hitting out every which way.

Here's the Donald slamming Ted Cruz on immigration amnesty:

At the Minneapolis Star Tribune, "Trump releases first political attack ad against rival Cruz."

Demi Lovato Campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Iowa (VIDEO)

I guess folks saw some Bernie Sanders supporters at the Clinton rally.

Hey, wouldn't want to miss a chance to meet Demi!

Via Associated Press:

So, Everybody's Loving This Bernie Sander's 'America' Campaign Spot (VIDEO)

Even Ann Althouse, heh.

See, "Wow. That is effective. I've got to turn myself away. That is effective..."



And see the encomiums at Memeorandum.

At Least 42 Migrants Drown in New Migrant Tragedy Near Greece

Maybe if they just stopped coming...

The death toll includes 17 children.

At Reuters, "At Least 42 Migrants Drown as Boats Capsize Off Greek Islands."

'Radical Totalitarian Loons' Launch 'Stop Hate Dump Trump' (VIDEO)

Donald Trump hardly needs defending but Bill O'Reilly provides a rather spirited defense here, slamming far left "loons" like Jane Fonda and Noam Chomsky and the radical attack group "Stop Hate Dump Trump."

From last night's Talking Points Memo:

Loras College Poll Has Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in Dead Heat, 25-24 Percent

I've never heard of the Loras poll, but the methodology looks pretty rigorous.

See, "TRUMP AND CRUZ DEADLOCKED, WITH RUBIO A DISTANT THIRD, LORAS COLLEGE POLL FINDS" (via Jennifer Jacobs):

With 11 days to go before the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, real estate mogul Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are deadlocked at the top of the latest Loras College Poll. The two candidates have distanced themselves from the rest of the field, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio the only other candidate receiving double-digit support among likely Republican caucus voters.  The statewide live-caller poll was conducted Jan. 13-18.  Trump and Cruz were also at the top of the December Loras Poll.

As the precinct caucuses approach on Feb. 1, the campaigning is reaching a fevered pitch.  “The Trump versus Cruz dynamic has defined the Republican race in the past couple of weeks.  We are certainly seeing that here in Iowa,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll.  “Iowa voters have surprised in the past, so it is always wise to watch for out for a last-minute push by someone from back in the field.  Senator Rubio is the one most within striking distance at the moment, and 10 days is something of an eternity in caucus politics.”

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad made headlines with his comment Wednesday that he “think[s] it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him.” The governor focused on Cruz’s opposition to ethanol as a key reason for concern.

“Governor Branstad’s comments were noteworthy as a high profile intervention into the race, and that isn’t something you usually see.  It will be interesting find out how voters respond to this last minute pitch by the state’s influential and popular GOP governor,” Budzisz said...

More.

If these results are accurate, that means the campaign ground games are going to be decisive. I have no clue what'll happen, frankly. Again, Donald Trump's supposed to be mobilizing all kinds of new participants, so his campaign could blow traditional expectations out of the water.

We'll see. We'll see.

Jackie Johnson's Balmy Friday Forecast

I went out without a jacket today. It was probably 70 degrees and sunny, if not warmer.

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

National Review Disinvited from GOP Debate in Houston for Publishing Editorial Hit Piece, 'Against Trump'

It was bound to happen, I guess.

From Jack Fowler, "Houston, We Have a Problem."

Just got a call from top GOP official. @NRO disivinited from Houston debate on Feb. 25th becasue of #AgainstTrump. https://t.co/KrPECb1Mwz

— Jack Fowler (@jackfowler) January 22, 2016

PREVIOUSLY: "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!," and "Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial."

Also, "Here's Rich Lowry on 'The Kelly File' Talking Up National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial (VIDEO)."

Here's Rich Lowry on 'The Kelly File' Talking Up National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial (VIDEO)

Following-up, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!," and "Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial."

I've been blogging like crazy, but Fox News talking heads have been droning on in the background, heh.

Here's Megyn Kelly's lead segment, with Rich Lowry:

Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial

It wasn't up when I posted a little while ago, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!"

But it's up now, "Trump is a philosophically unmoored political opportunist":

Donald Trump leads the polls nationally and in most states in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. There are understandable reasons for his eminence, and he has shown impressive gut-level skill as a campaigner. But he is not deserving of conservative support in the caucuses and primaries. Trump is a philosophically unmoored political opportunist who would trash the broad conservative ideological consensus within the GOP in favor of a free-floating populism with strong-man overtones.

Trump’s political opinions have wobbled all over the lot. The real-estate mogul and reality-TV star has supported abortion, gun control, single-payer health care à la Canada, and punitive taxes on the wealthy. (He and Bernie Sanders have shared more than funky outer-borough accents.) Since declaring his candidacy he has taken a more conservative line, yet there are great gaping holes in it.

 His signature issue is concern over immigration — from Latin America but also, after Paris and San Bernardino, from the Middle East. He has exploited the yawning gap between elite opinion in both parties and the public on the issue, and feasted on the discontent over a government that can’t be bothered to enforce its own laws no matter how many times it says it will (President Obama has dispensed even with the pretense). But even on immigration, Trump often makes no sense and can’t be relied upon. A few short years ago, he was criticizing Mitt Romney for having the temerity to propose “self-deportation,” or the entirely reasonable policy of reducing the illegal population through attrition while enforcing the nation’s laws. Now, Trump is a hawk’s hawk.

He pledges to build a wall along the southern border and to make Mexico pay for it. We need more fencing at the border, but the promise to make Mexico pay for it is silly bluster. Trump says he will put a big door in his beautiful wall, an implicit endorsement of the dismayingly conventional view that current levels of legal immigration are fine. Trump seems unaware that a major contribution of his own written immigration plan is to question the economic impact of legal immigration and to call for reform of the H-1B–visa program. Indeed, in one Republican debate he clearly had no idea what’s in that plan and advocated increased legal immigration, which is completely at odds with it. These are not the meanderings of someone with well-informed, deeply held views on the topic.

As for illegal immigration, Trump pledges to deport the 11 million illegals here in the United States, a herculean administrative and logistical task beyond the capacity of the federal government. Trump piles on the absurdity by saying he would re-import many of the illegal immigrants once they had been deported, which makes his policy a poorly disguised amnesty (and a version of a similarly idiotic idea that appeared in one of Washington’s periodic “comprehensive immigration” reforms). This plan wouldn’t survive its first contact with reality.

On foreign policy, Trump is a nationalist at sea. Sometimes he wants to let Russia fight ISIS, and at others he wants to “bomb the sh**” out of it. He is fixated on stealing Iraq’s oil and casually suggested a few weeks ago a war crime — killing terrorists’ families — as a tactic in the war on terror. For someone who wants to project strength, he has an astonishing weakness for flattery, falling for Vladimir Putin after a few coquettish bats of the eyelashes from the Russian thug. All in all, Trump knows approximately as much about national security as he does about the nuclear triad — which is to say, almost nothing.

Indeed, Trump’s politics are those of an averagely well-informed businessman: Washington is full of problems; I am a problem-solver; let me at them. But if you have no familiarity with the relevant details and the levers of power, and no clear principles to guide you, you will, like most tenderfeet, get rolled...

Keep reading.

Notice that stompy-feet tone to the editors' screed. They're not wrong so much as pissing in the wind. Folks like Trump because they believe he'll fight for their values. They don't care if he can articulate them perfectly well. He's hits the bullseye when he stands up for the working-class downtrodden, to say nothing of the Great White Nationalists. Yep, I said it. You can't understand his success unless you see Trump's rise as a revolt against the politically correct, pro-diversity establishmentarians of both parties. Trump's especially got the GOPe running scared.

It's all mixed up right now, but things are going to shake out real soon. Ted Cruz has alienated a lot of people on Capital Hill, and elsewhere, and major figures in the party are saying they'd rather have the Manhattan real estate mogul. I'm just getting a kick out of this from an analytical perspective. What a blast this primary's been so far. I can't wait until the Iowa caucuses, heh.

And see Politico, via Memeorandum, "National Review aims to take down Trump."

Still more, at Gateway Pundit.

GOP Senators Warn of Revolt If Ted Cruz Wins Party's Presidential Nomination (VIDEO)

Following-up, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!"

The Old Gray Lady's story spoke of the most significant split in the Republican Party since Barry Goldwater's campaign in 1964. But when folks start mentioning Donald Trump and the John Birch Society in the same breath, you know they're stretching things.

Here's this, from CNN, "The Ted Cruz pile on: GOP senators warn of revolt should he win nomination."

I couldn't find a YouTube clip or I would've embedded it. But there's a nice CNN video at that link.

More at Memeorandum.