Hillary Clinton's Stress

What was it about Hillary Clinton's teary episode yesterday: A genuine burst of spontaneous emotion by an embattled erstwhile frontrunner, or a cold, calculated effort to pull on America's heartstrings for political purposes?

Hard to say. Maybe a little of both.

But whatever the case, Hillary's crying bout showed how disastrously her fortunes have fallen in the Democratic presidential race. The New York Times provides an analysis:

Key campaign officials may be replaced. She may start calling herself the underdog. Donors would receive pleas that it is do-or-die time. And her political strategy could begin mirroring that of Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican rival, by focusing on populous states like California and New York whose primaries are Feb. 5.

Everything is on the table inside Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign if she loses the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, her advisers say — including her style of campaigning, which shifted dramatically on Monday when Mrs. Clinton bared her thoughts about the race’s impact on her personally, and her eyes welled with tears.

“I couldn’t do it if I just didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do,” she said here in reply to a question from an undecided voter, a woman roughly Mrs. Clinton’s age.

Her eyes visibly wet, in perhaps the most public display of emotion of her year-old campaign, Mrs. Clinton added: “I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don’t want to see us fall backwards. This is very personal for me — it’s not just political, it’s not just public.”

Mrs. Clinton did not cry, but her quavering voice and the flash of feeling underscored the pressure, fatigue, anger and disappointment that, advisers say, Mrs. Clinton has experienced since her loss on Thursday in the Iowa caucuses and that she continues to shoulder at this most critical moment.

Mrs. Clinton has felt frustrated and at times rejected as she has watched the rise of Senator Barack Obama, her main rival here and the victor in Iowa, advisers say.

But she is also worried that her political strategy, polling and communications message have not reflected the mood and desire for change among Democratic voters.

In an interview on Monday night, Mrs. Clinton said she choked up at the Portsmouth event because the other woman had expressed concern for her feelings, after months when Mrs. Clinton was focused on voters’ anxieties.

“It was just so touching when this woman said, ‘Well, what about you?’” Mrs. Clinton said. “I just don’t think about that, I think about what I can do for other people I have spent a lifetime trying to help others; I’m very other-directed. That’s maybe why people don’t get me in the political world.”

The article goes on to note that Hillary's not throwing in the towel. The campaign plans a big ad push, and will step up the focus in California and New York.

I've been careful in my assessment here at American Power. I just don't think Obama's got it locked up yet, even with a win today. Sure, history and the odds are in favor of an Iowa/New Hampshire double-winner, but we've still got essentially a national primary on February 5, and the Clinton machine is well-organized (with James Carville waiting in the wings), backed by Bill Clinton's star power (which will have more bite in "left-coast" type of states), and Hillary's not yet gotten down-and-dirty with political attacks on Obama (who might not be here if it wasn't for Jeri Ryan!).

Having noted this, I got a kick out of Big Dog's analysis of Clinton's difficulties:

If we are lucky, by this time tomorrow Hillary Clinton's campaign will be gasping for its last breaths of air and it dies a long overdue death. I realize that even if she loses New Hampshire she could go on but there are indications that many of her supporters have secretly said she is not going much further and there are also indications that she is or will soon be strapped for cash. What once seemed a juggernaut of political and money raising efficiency is now heading down to the bottom very rapidly.

Hillary was out giving a please vote for me speech today when someone asked her how she does it. Hillary got tears in her eyes and her voiced cracked a few times during her answer which largely consisted of her her desire to make the country better and her beliefs blah, blah. The truth is Hillary expected to be the next president. She has been planning her chance for years and her pact with Bill looked like manifest destiny when she was way ahead in the polls and raising millions upon millions of dollars. She started out asking people to max out by giving the largest amount possible for both the primary and the general election. Now she is just asking for the amount needed to continue in the primary.

Hillary Clinton spent a fortune in Iowa and has a third place show for it. She has blown millions of dollars to convince people to vote for her and it is not working. She has brought out the big guns in her husband and while he is exciting many people it is because of their cult like worship of him and his decadent ways and not so much for her. They seem not to like her very much and I don't really blame them. Hillary was all set to be the next president and now it looks like she might bow out. This is why she is crying though some might think she is trying to show she is actually a caring human. In reality, she can hear her dreams shattering and that shatter sounds like Senator Obama.

Dan Joseph over at Falling Panda 's got a nice dissection as well:

Hillary Clinton is not completely responsible for what is shaping up to be her meteoric fall from her status as the Democratic front-runner. In fact it's really not her fault at all. There's probably nothing she can do about it, which I would imagine is a very discouraging position for an uber-ambitious individual, such as Mrs. Clinton, to be in. She's crying at her rallies. Not a good sign.

Mr. Obama is running solely on his charisma. This completely undefined concept of "hope" and his incredible speaking skills have catapulted him ahead of Clinton in every early primary state. That's all! There's nothing else to it.

By contrast, Mrs. Clinton has no charisma, and her presentation style ranges from phony to shrill with very few points in between. However, to give this charisma dividend all of the credit for Clinton's troubles would be a vast oversimplification, even when handicapping a Democratic party which frequently favors style over substance. Especially younger members of the party.

Joseph goes on to provide a nice counterfactual analysis of Barack Obama (lack of) experience.

Photo Credit: New York Times

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