Hillary Clinton Bracing for Another Loss

Political developments have been breathtaking since Iowa, especially on the Democratic side, where Hillary Clinton - once considered a virtually unbeatable frontrunner even among political professionals - is bracing for a loss in New Hampshire.

Jackie Calmes over at the Wall Street Journal has a penetrating analysis of the Clinton campaign's plight. Things aren't looking good, and I'm trying not to jump on the "Hillary's done" bandwagon:

With Barack Obama strongly favored - even within Hillary Clinton's camp - to win a second straight victory in today's New Hampshire Democratic primary, both rivals are looking to the next battle grounds. But his momentum threatens to swamp her in the next two states as well and shows signs of fracturing her support in the party establishment.

Already some Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could. Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague.

Despite raising more than $100 million, Sen. Clinton also faces financial worries as contributions have begun to slacken. But she vows to fight on: Her campaign will pivot to focus more heavily on "Super Tuesday" Feb. 5, when 21 states vote. "We are going all the way to the convention," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said.

Still, the maneuverings marked an extraordinary turn, and underscored the power of small, early-voting states to scramble all bets - especially in a year when the states' contests are so closely scheduled. Sen. Clinton until now continued to hold wide leads in national polls; a new Gallup poll has her slipping into a dead heat. Her original campaign strategy, aimed at positioning her as the inevitable nominee who would capture the early states and wrap up the nomination before February, is now in shambles.

Sen. Clinton uncharacteristically bared the strain of her plight and the grueling campaign pace yesterday: She momentarily choked up with tear-filled eyes after a woman at a Portsmouth, N.H., cafe inquired as to how she gets ready for the campaign each day. "I have so many ideas for this country, and I just don't want to see us fall backwards as a nation," she said, her voice cracking. "This is very personal for me."

Things could be getting worse.

The Culinary Workers union in Nevada - said to be a crucial interest group consitituency for the Democrats - will likely endorse Barack Obama tomorrow after his likely New Hampshire win today. Plus, Clinton's campaign is running out of money - or at least the organization might not have the resources to spend heavily in California and New York, two of the key states in which Clinton's forces hope to stage a comeback.

(Karen Tumulty over at Time examines Hillary's money troubles, with the campaign having "as little as $15 million to $25 million left on hand.")

Calmes in the WSJ piece indicates that internal strife has racked Clinton's top-level staffers, with controversy centered on senior strategist Mark Penn's underestimation of the electorate's demand for change, as well as the significance of the Obama bounce coming out of Iowa.

Should Hillary plug the plug tomorrow, after a loss tonight, and then back Obama, as some party insiders are hoping? I noted earlier that it's too early for Clinton to concede:

I just don't think Obama's got it locked up yet, even with a win today. Sure, history and the odds are in favor of an Iowa/New Hampshire double-winner, but we've still got essentially a national primary on February 5, and the Clinton machine is well-organized (with James Carville waiting in the wings), backed by Bill Clinton's star power (which will have more bite in "left-coast" type of states), and Hillary's not yet gotten down-and-dirty with political attacks on Obama (who might not be here if it wasn't for Jeri Ryan!).

Maybe that's a bit conservative.

Note though that today's Washington Post stresses how the early nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have exceeded expectations as turning points on the way to the nomination.

The 2008 election season is the most frontloaded in history. The Iowa/New Hampshire contests come just five days apart, and analysts for the first time might likely be right to consider the pair the functional equivalent of a one-two nominating coronation!

Maybe Hillary really is done! More updates later!