Bush Complicates McCain's Presidential Prospects

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Bush's low approval ratings may cause difficulties for John McCain's presidential bid:

President Bush's record unpopularity is playing an unprecedented role in the 2008 campaign, complicating John McCain's task among key constituencies.

Mr. Bush received a 66% disapproval rating in The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll for June, tying his own record for the highest ever for any president in the Journal/NBC poll. The previous highs were a 56% rating for Mr. Bush's father in late 1992, and a 50% score for President Clinton in 1993. In the long-running Gallup Poll, Mr. Bush's disapproval rating reached 69% this spring -- a record going back to the Truman administration.

His disapproval rating in the Journal poll is particularly striking among a number of key voter blocs for Mr. McCain in the November election: older voters (67%), women (71%) and independents (75%).

Mr. Bush's second-term slide in the polls has been especially sharp among independents, a group that Sen. McCain depends on. Now for Mr. McCain to win in November, "at least one-third of McCain's voters will have to be people who disapprove of the job George Bush is doing," most of them independents, says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. And Sen. McCain must accomplish that feat while continuing to align himself with Mr. Bush on some of the administration's most controversial policies, notably the Iraq war.

While some Democrats see an opening, it's uncertain how significant the effect of Bush's approval ratings will be:

Even in the short run, it's far from clear that Mr. Bush's low standing will drag Sen. McCain down against his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

Mr. Bush's impact on the race could depend on whether voters blame the president's policies, or the president himself, for his administration's perceived failings. "The key is whether independent voters and disillusioned Republicans see the failures of the Bush administration as stemming from personal incompetence or conservative ideology," says Larry Bartels, director of Princeton University's Center for the Study of Democratic Politics.

Democrats say no matter how voters see that question, Sen. McCain is trapped in the president's toxic political shadow.

"The American people are desperately looking for a fundamental change from President Bush's management, which is a problem for John McCain considering his desire to stay on the same path," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

Several strategists close to the McCain camp concede that administration policies have created political challenges. "The GOP brand is not good now because of policies," one said. "The good news is that the GOP has nominated the one guy who can redefine the brand."

The McCain campaign has been seeking to distance itself from the Bush White House, and also elevate Sen. McCain above the partisan discord of Washington. It's depicting Sen. McCain as the one candidate who can put the public's interests first -- while casting Sen. Obama as a typical Washington partisan.

"The problem in our view is not a Republican administration that has disappointed many or a Democratic Congress that cannot take action on the challenges facing our nation, it is that too many in Washington are putting politics first and country second," said McCain spokesman Brian Rogers.

"The American people know John McCain - they know he's his own man who has always put his country first. That's what people are looking for today: a leader who will put the country first - above party, politics and self-interest -- to bring us together, take on the tough challenges we face and move America forward."

Ultimately, I think that last point will be a deciding factor in the race - McCain truly a leader who'll put country first, .

On the other hand, Barack Obama's a well-known snob, and significant questions remain as to who's interests Obama will put forward this year, the narrow interests of his radical multiculturalist friends or the general interest of the American people.