A Democratic Senate? GOP Prospects Look Unfavorable

The Democrats are already favored to win the House in November, but Janet Hook makes the case for Democratic gains in the Senate as well:

Mississippi, one of the nation's most conservative states, has not elected a Democratic senator in a quarter-century. It has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the last seven elections.

But this year, there is a real chance that the state will send a Democrat to the Senate.
That prospect is a window onto a remarkable political trend that has been eclipsed by the fireworks surrounding the 2008 presidential contest: Democrats are running strong Senate campaigns in states such as Mississippi, Alaska and North Carolina that Republicans have long taken for granted.

The outlook for the GOP is so grim that party leaders have readily conceded there is no chance they can regain control of the Senate in 2008, even though Democrats' current majority is slim, 51-49.

"If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared," said Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who says the party will do well if it holds its losses to three or four seats.

The Mississippi race between Democratic former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Sen. Roger Wicker distills the wide range of factors that have put congressional Republicans in their weakest position since the Watergate scandal of the 1970s.

The overall political climate, shaped by the sluggish economy and President Bush's low approval ratings, is souring many voters on Republicans. The party has been hobbled by a stampede of retirements by senior Republicans, including Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott. After Lott quit in 2007, Wicker was appointed to replace him.

Barack Obama's presidential campaign has generated a big boost in Democratic voter registration, especially among African Americans, who make up more than a third of Mississippi's population. Other quirks, such as ethics scandals, are putting more Republican Senate seats at risk than seemed likely a year ago.

In June 2007, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report identified only one race for a Republican Senate seat as a real tossup. Now it identifies seven Republican seats as at risk.

The stakes for Obama in the Senate races are high. If he is elected president, the biggest obstacle to his goals could be in the Senate, where parliamentary rules mean that it can take 60 votes to approve legislation. The Senate currently includes 49 Democrats and two independents who are aligned with the Democratic caucus.

"Big changes don't happen without big Senate majorities," Obama wrote in a recent letter urging Democrats to contribute to Senate campaign coffers.

For now, most political analysts are predicting a Democratic gain of four to eight seats, which would leave the party short of the 60-vote threshold. But Republicans are worried, because bigger gains are not out of the question: Democratic fundraising is strong and the battlefield is heavily tilted against the GOP.

I think this last section's key: If Democrats pick up nine seats, they'll have a filibuster proof majority. See also, "The Power of 41: GOP Senate Minority Frustrates Democrats."