Democratic Voter Surge Offset by Personality Issues

The Pew Research organization has new findings on voter engagement this year, and the survey predicts a substantial surge in voter turnout for the general election. Voter enthusiasm is higher among Democrats, but Barack Obama may have diffulties in unifying the Democratic Party, as a number of Hillary Clinton supporters have yet to flock to the Obama banner:

Two unprecedented findings from the new survey support a potential Democratic turnout advantage. For the first time in Center polls conducted since 1992, a greater proportion of Democrats than Republicans are expressing strong interest in the campaign. Nearly eight-in-ten Democratic voters (77%) say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, up 18 points since June 2004. Republican engagement also has increased over this period (from 61% to 72%), but for the first time somewhat fewer GOP voters than Democrats say they are giving a lot of thought to the election.

An even larger gap is seen between the percentages of voters in each party saying they are now more interested in politics than they were during the previous campaign. About seven-in-ten Democratic voters (71%) report they are more interested in politics than they were four years ago, compared with barely half of Republican voters (51%). As with other measures of political engagement, in the past there were no partisan differences or Republicans held the advantage.

A second factor which may also contribute to a Democratic turnout advantage is that supporters of the Republican candidate, uncharacteristically, are less strongly committed to their choice than are supporters of the Democratic candidate. Overall, Obama leads McCain in the presidential horserace by 48% to 40%. Most voters who say they support Obama -- 28% among the 48% -- say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14% of the 40%)....

A positive note for the Republicans is that McCain is now winning the support of 79% of those who supported his former Republican rivals. By contrast, just 69% of former Clinton supporters say they now back Obama. The putative Democratic candidate is attracting more Clinton supporters than earlier in the campaign (59% in May). However, as many as three-in-ten former Clinton supporters now say they will vote for McCain (17%), vote for someone else (2%) or are undecided (12%).

The overall trends are toward the Obama campaign, but in the battle for politically independent swing voters, McCain has an edge among older voters, who historically have averaged twice the rate of turnout than younger cohorts. If voter enthusiasm is fairly constant against all demographics, McCain may come out ahead in the battle for the centrist vote.

The Los Angeles Times reports that McCain and Obama appear attractive to voters looking for pragmatic solutions rather partisan red meat. Although the Times overrates the extent that Barack Obama has moved to the middle, the analysis does substantiate the notion of a battle for the great middle of the electorate.

Much of what may happen this year, then, depends on how well the candidates mount their respective campaigns, not just on policy (as Obama will try to match McCain on centrist appeal), but on personality. It's going to be very hard for Obama to beat McCain on issues of patriotism and service to country, and the matter of defining the candidates may very well decide the race.