Democrats Take Hastert's Seat, Roiling Speculation

Partisans on both sides of the aisle are reacting to the Democratic candidate's special election victory in the Illinois congressional district of Dennis Hastert, the former GOP House Speaker. Here's the New York Times:

Congressional Democrats on Sunday were celebrating an election victory that they said increased their confidence of holding the House in November and affirmed that party positions on the Iraq war and health care were resonating with voters.

At the same time, they said the victory, taking over the Illinois seat held for two decades by Dennis J. Hastert, who became the most powerful Republican in Congress, showed that Democrats can run strongly in the more than two dozen House seats being vacated by Republicans, particularly given the party’s financial advantage.

The election of Bill Foster, a physicist, for the 14th Congressional District provided special satisfaction to Democrats since it means that their party in the past two years has won seats held by two of their arch foes — Mr. Hastert, the former speaker who left Congress last fall, and Tom DeLay, the former House majority leader from Texas.
“It was a remarkable repudiation of Republican status quo, showing that voters all across America are eager for change,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, said Sunday.

Check out the Politico's coverage as well, indicating a considerable psychological defeat for GOP congressional hopefuls:

For National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.), every week seems to bring a new set of problems. On Saturday night, things got even worse.

With Democrat Bill Foster’s victory in the Illinois 14th District special election, Democrats now hold the seats occupied only 21 months ago by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.) and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (Texas) — the two GOP lawmakers who ran the House from 1998 to 2006.

Since September, Cole has faced a barrage of bad news:

• The NRCC lags behind the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by nearly $30 million in cash on hand.

• GOP House leadership endured an embarrassing scuffle when Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) tried to fire Cole’s top two staffers, during which Cole threatened to resign.

• There has been a wave of retirement announcements by veteran Republican lawmakers that will force the NRCC to defend what were once seen as safe GOP seats.

• Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) was indicted on 35 federal corruption charges, which puts another Republican-controlled district in play.

• And the FBI continues its criminal investigation into a brewing accounting scandal that centers on the former NRCC treasurer’s activities.

But the GOP’s defeat in Illinois’ special election Saturday may trump those setbacks, at least in the short term. Cole and the House Republican leadership are blaming the loss directly on GOP candidate Jim Oberweis. A dairy owner who lost three consecutive statewide elections before Saturday, Oberweis has a long history of political baggage. He won the recent nomination without receiving the support of his Republican primary rival, state Sen. Chris Lauzen.

“By itself, this would not be that big of a deal, but coupled with everything else it will just deflate the [House Republican] Conference,” said an aide to one top GOP lawmaker. “And symbolically, losing Hastert’s seat is like the toppling of the Saddam statue in Baghdad for Republicans.”

Cole and the NRCC are desperately spinning Oberweis’ defeat as an isolated incident that is not endemic of further GOP losses in the fall. NRCC Communications Director Karen Hanretty, new to the panel after the previous spokeswoman resigned last month, said, “The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend. In fact, there has been no national trend this entire election season.”

An isolated incident? That's a good one!

Face it: The GOP's facing the potential for one of the biggest Democratic years since 1964. The symbolism of taking the former House Speaker's seat is enormous, and portends for Democratic prospects.

Here's Bill Kristol's thoughts on this:

Buried inside Sunday’s papers was a noteworthy election result. In a special election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert, an Illinois Republican, first-time Democratic candidate Bill Foster emerged victorious. George Bush easily carried the district in 2004, as has every recent G.O.P. presidential candidate.

This Democratic pickup suggests that, for now, we’re in an electoral environment more like 2006 than 2004. Foster’s eight-percentage-point improvement on John Kerry’s 2004 performance in the district mirrors the general shift in the electorate from 2004, when Bush won and the Republicans held Congress, to 2006, when the Democrats took over Congress and ran on average about eight points ahead of the G.O.P. Most surveys have shown the Democrats retaining that sizable advantage over the last 16 months. Saturday’s special election would appear to confirm these polls.

This isn’t encouraging for G.O.P. prospects in 2008. Nor is this: It’s rare for a party to win a third consecutive term in the White House. The only time it’s been done since World War II was in 1988. Then the incumbent, Ronald Reagan, had a job approval rating on Election Day in the high 50s. George Bush looks likely to remain stuck in the 30s. Factor in the prospect of a recession (the bad housing and job market reports at the end of last week were politically chilling) and the fact that a large majority already thinks the country’s going in the wrong direction. Add to the mix a huge turnout so far in the Democratic presidential primaries, far above that for the Republican contests, even when both parties still had competitive races.

As former Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power would say: Ergh!

We still have a long way to go until the general election.

Campaigns matter, and the dynamics in Illinois can't be replicated exactly around the country (a presidential election's won in the Electoral College, where so far prospects look good for McCain).

But if there ever was a wake-call for the GOP, this one's it.