Sunday, March 16, 2008

McCain Pulls Ahead in New Zogby Poll

Zogby's had spotty accuracy in recent polling, but I thought I'd get the firm's latest poll findings up here to add to the debate on the general election.

John McCain has
a six-point lead over Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup for November, which is the largest lead I've seen in recent polling:

Riding high after locking up his party’s presidential nomination, Republican John McCain of Arizona has moved ahead of both of his potential Democratic Party rivals in a national general election test, the latest Zogby telephone survey shows.

Perhaps profiting from the continuing political battle across the aisle, McCain would defeat Hillary Clinton of New York by six points and Barack Obama of Illinois by 5 points, the survey shows. Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight battle to win the Democratic Party nomination, a fight that has grown nasty at times recently and threatens to continue on all summer long until the party’s national convention in Denver this August.
Zogby also finds that Ralph Nader taking 5 percent of the vote, which if that number holds, could be very signicant, as the former Green Party candidate more likely siphons votes from the Democratic Party.

Also, Michael Hirsch at Newsweek, in his essay, "
Why McCain Might Win," argues that the Democratic bloodletting is seriously damaging Democratic Party prospects for the the fall race:

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama show few signs that they're aware of it, but the general election campaign has already begun. And appropriately for the eve of St. Patrick's Day, the pair have begun to destroy each other like the two crazy Irish cats of Kilkenny. The upshot is that both of them are already losing the general to John McCain. By the time the Democratic convention rolls around in August and the nomination is finally awarded, the battle may already be over.
Hirsch's analyis excludes analysis of the Wright scandal on the dynamics of the election, and the changing fortunes of the Democrats.

Given the "God Damn America" controversy, the likelihood of this thing being over is even greater than some might think.

For more on Obama's liabilities, see "What Did Obama Know About Wright's Past Sermons?"