Thursday, March 6, 2008

Tough and Ready: How Will McCain's Defense Message Sell?

How will John McCain's beefy tough-on-defense message resonate with voters? Are hawkish credentials an asset this year?

The Wall Street Journal has an analysis:
In his victory speech Tuesday night, John McCain ticked off his muscular foreign-policy plans and then, with clenched jaw, urged the rowdy crowd to "stand up and fight for America."

The Republican presidential nominee's resolve will now be tested on a national stage. His record in Congress suggests that a McCain White House could assume a tougher posture overseas than has the current administration, which has itself often been criticized as too bellicose. Sen. McCain has joked about bombing Iran, ruled out talks with North Korea and, earlier this week, condemned the new leader of Russia....

His worldview will likely pose a contrast to his opponent, be it Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. Sen. McCain and his Republican allies are preparing a campaign built around the assertion that either Democrat would be too soft. The Democratic nominee will likely portray Sen. McCain as a reckless saber-rattler....

In a recent Pew Research Center survey, 47% of respondents said they thought Sen. McCain was "tough enough" on foreign policy, compared with 39% for Sen. Obama and 44% for Sen. Clinton. One in four thought Sen. McCain was "too tough" -- compared with only 3% for Sen. Obama and 9% for Sen. Clinton.

Sen. McCain has a long record of urging the use of force during crises from North Korea to Iran. In 1994, he accused President Clinton of trying to appease North Korea over its nuclear program. "To get a mule to move, you must show it the carrot and hit it with a stick at the same time," he wrote in the Los Angeles Times.

Five years later, when the Clinton administration led a North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombing campaign against then-Yugoslavia, Sen. McCain was one of the loudest voices in the Senate urging the White House to prepare for a potential ground invasion. "The credibility of America as a superpower is at stake," he said.

A decade later, during the Iraq war, U.S. credibility has again emerged as a big issue. The top Democratic contenders frequently promise to restore America's image overseas. But Randy Scheunemann, Sen. McCain's chief foreign-policy adviser, said the McCain campaign sees no similar need. "At the end of the day, people are happy to engage with Americans," he said. "They know we're the sole superpower."

Several of Mr. McCain's original advisers, including Mr. Scheunemann, fell firmly in the camp of neoconservatives, the hawkish group that encouraged President Bush to invade Iraq. But as the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. McCain has since attracted support from nearly all of the party's foreign-policy luminaries, including staunch realists like former Secretary of State James Baker.

Sen. McCain and his aides have devised a foreign-policy strategy that recommends pushing for tougher economic sanctions on Iran -- including a possible gasoline embargo -- outside the auspices of the United Nations, a policy the Bush administration has eschewed as impractical. Sen. McCain wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine last fall that when it comes to Iran, "military action, although not the preferred option, must remain on the table."
Read the whole thing.

WSJ notes that President Ronald Reagan came to office with a similar bellicose reputation, but then mellowed while in office and achieved great success in foreign policy.

Further, McCain's toughness puts our enemies on watch not to fool around (recall
Max Boot's argument as well that the terrorists fear most a McCain presidency), and a reputation for firmness may even position McCain favorably to resolve international crises, like those with Iran.

The quesion is wheter these assets will sell with the general electorate in November. I think
they will.

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