Gallup/USA Today Poll: Americans Worse Off in 12 Battleground States

Glenn Reynolds keeps reminding us not to get cocky, but my gut sense says a president at 45 percent nationally, with unemployment still above 8 percent, cannot be reelected. The election is close, I believe, because the White House has been successful in deflecting from its own historical failures, and also because of missteps on the part of Mitt Romney's campaign. But the Paul Ryan pick has powerfully clarified the choice facing Americans, and with the national party conventions beginning next week, we'll truly see an epic campaign for the future of the nation.

USA Today reports, "Obama faces historic challenge":

Barack Obama, who made history when he was elected president four years, would make a different kind of history if he wins re-election in November: claiming a second term when most Americans say they aren't better off than they were when he moved into the Oval Office.

Since Ronald Reagan challenged President Carter nearly three decades ago, the rhetorical debate question has become an iconic one for voters. Are you better off than you were four years ago? Now, in USA TODAY/Gallup polls nationwide and in the 12 top battleground states, most voters say the situation for them and their families hasn't improved over the past four years -- the most downbeat response of the electorate in elections since then.

Even so, President Obama, who in 2008 became the first African American elected president, maintains a lead over challenger Mitt Romney in the battleground states likely to decide the election, 47%-44%. That's better than his standing in the non-battleground states, where Romney leads 47%-45%.

Despite airing millions of dollars in TV ads and taking a high-profile trip abroad, Romney has failed to budge in the swing states, stuck at 44% or 45% since April. In that time, Obama has maintained a steady 47% despite a string of disappointing monthly jobs reports and an 8.3% unemployment rate.

The president's vulnerabilities on the economy have opened the door to a re-election rebuke, analysts of all stripes agree, but so far Romney has failed to walk through that opening. In the survey and follow-up interviews, voters say they have lost much of their faith that Obama can fix the economy but aren't convinced they can trust Romney to watch out for them and their interests.

Romney's biggest opportunities to do so lie ahead, at the Republican National Convention that opens Monday in Tampa and in the presidential debates in October. "I'm really kind of torn, and I'm glad I don't have to vote today," says Kerry O'Hearn, 55, of Grandville, Mich., who was called in the poll. "There's just something about Romney that I'm not sure I like." She voted for Obama four years ago, but if she had to grade him now on the economy, she would give him a D.

Romney will close the deal in the remaining months of the campaign.

More, Ed Morrissey parses the numbers, "Gallup swing state poll shows virtual tie, only 40% better off than in 2008."