So there had to be some bogus sampling issues. Here's the report, "New Polls Show Obama Has Edge in 3 Battleground States." (Via Memeorandum.) I checked the internals, "The Latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS Poll." And boom! There's way too many Democrats for these numbers to be meaningful. Ed Morrissey has this:
Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:Here's Gallup from last week: "Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008." And check Take My Liberty, "Enough with the bogus polling data."
* Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.
* Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
* Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23...
It's not just voter enthusiasm, by the way. The New York Times consistently oversamples Democrats, for example, "New York Times: Oversamples Democrats, Push-Polls Respondents in Health Care Survey."
And check Pew's findings for national-level partisan identification: "Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years." Dems are about 32 percent of the electorate nationally, with independents comprising the plurality of party ID.