Saturday, June 2, 2012

Fifty-Seven Percent of Independents in New Boston Globe Survey Say Elizabeth Warren Has Not Fully Explained Claims of Native American Heritage

I have to agree with William Jacobson's response to new survey from the Boston Globe. See: "Not The Boston Globe’s headline: Scott Brown maintains lead, Warren negatives rise."

As you can see at the screencap, incumbent Scott Brown enjoys a comfortable favorability rating. And it's what's not shown that's even more important, frankly. The Globe's report is here: "Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren neck and neck in new poll." Here's the most interesting passage:

The poll results among self-identified independents, whose votes Brown needs to win overwhelmingly in a state that traditionally favors Democrats, are particularly helpful to Brown. Fifty-seven percent of independents in the Globe survey said Warren had not fully explained the issue.

The Native American controversy has eclipsed the negative attention Brown has received from Warren supporters.

Only 19 percent of voters said they were very familiar with stories about Brown’s fund-raising from Wall Street interests, with 37 percent saying they were somewhat familiar.

And among those who were at least somewhat familiar, 66 percent said it would not affect their vote.

Brown also did well on a question that has, historically, often accurately forecast election winners. Voters, when asked who they think will win the race, regardless of their preference, chose Brown by a margin of 52 percent to 27 percent. Smith said that question is often a valuable predictor, especially farther away from an election, because it takes into account what poll respondents’ friends, relatives, and co-workers are saying about the candidates.

Laurie Petrie, a 60-year-old Chicopee Democrat who is unemployed, illustrates that point. She said she would be voting for Warren, but ‘‘I think a lot of people like Scott Brown; I wouldn’t be terribly upset if he beat her.’’
Basically, Brown is a non controversial incumbent, a finding even more significant in that both Warren and the national Democrats have made class warfare their rallying cry this election. Clearly, if the dynamics of the race don't change --- and the way Warren is responding to the controversy, that's not likely to happen soon --- then it's quite reasonable to expect Brown's favorability rating to stay well above the 50 percent line heading into the election. And as some say this is an anti-incumbency year, I'd say Scott Brown is sitting pretty, despite what the headline writers at the Globe would have you believe.

Remember, independents are key, and Brown's even doing well with self-identified Democrats.

BONUS: There's more at Legal Insurrection, "Mass Dems set to ditch true liberal in favor of self-aggrandizing fake Cherokee historic Bar-exam taking nursing mother foreclosure speculator."

Also at Memeorandum.

UPDATE: Protein Wisdom links. Thanks!