Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Nate Silver Calls It: Advantage Obama!

The suspense is over!

Wonder boy Nate Silver delivers the snap analysis, "Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter."

Horses and Bayonets

There is, obviously, some disagreement on the magnitude of Mr. Obama’s advantage — the polls surveyed different types of voters and applied different methods to do so.

But averaging the results from the CBS News, CNN and Google polls, which conducted surveys after all three presidential debates along with the one between the vice-presidential candidates, puts Mr. Obama’s margin at 16 points.

That compares favorably to Mr. Obama’s average 10-point margin after the second debate, and Vice President Joseph R. Biden’s 6-point margin against Representative Paul Ryan, but is smaller than Mr. Romney’s average 29-point win in Denver.
So that improves Obama chances in the Electoral College by a gazillion-ty times!!

PREVIOUSLY: "Nate Silver's Flawed Model."

BONUS: "'Horses and Bayonets'", and "Charles Krauthammer: 'Romney Went Large; Obama Went Very, Very Small — Almost Shockingly Small ...'."

IMAGE CREDIT: Horses and Bayonets Tumblr.