Melania Trump Accused of Plagiarizing Michelle Obama's 2008 Convention Speech

This is really bizarre.

I watched Mrs. Trump's speech and thought it was just about perfect. Then, after Senator Joni Ernst spoke, I finished cleaning up the kitchen and flipped the channel over the the Angels-Rangers game on Fox Sports West. I'm on my iPhone of course, on the Twitter app, and in almost real time Mrs. Trump was being accused of plagiarizing Michelle Obama's speech from the 2008 Democrat Convention. I don't even think I watched Michelle Obama in 2008, much less Obama. But this dude on Twitter, Jerrett Hill, tweeted the evidence, along with video clips. And it looked damning. Now pretty much the entire MSM is on the case and the question is how bad will it be for the Trump campaign?

My theory is that Mrs. Trump is innocent of plagiarism and Donald Trump's going to be saying "You're fired!" to somebody pretty quick. But who's the speechwriter? We don't know yet, or at least I haven't seen anyone identified so far.

In any case, here's some stuff from Twitter:

CORRECTION: Melania stole a whole graph from Michelle's speech. #GOPConvention
WATCH: https://t.co/8BCOwXAHSy pic.twitter.com/zudpDznGng

— Jarrett Hill (@JarrettHill) July 19, 2016

Here are the passages it appears Melania Trump lifted from Michelle Obama’s 2008 speech https://t.co/XAStKRgueP pic.twitter.com/qWiwE0xNS9

— Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) July 19, 2016

An otherwise fine speech ends up being ruined by pure stupidity. Who's the speechwriter? #MelanieTrump #RNCinCLE https://t.co/QYYQLDrLMK

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

Jeffrey Lord, huge Trump backer, says on CNN that "this is a serious thing" re the Melania Trump speech.

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 19, 2016

It's very serious. The Donald will defend his wife and attack the MSM. This kind of thing could end up helping him. https://t.co/EXBoP5SNRQ

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

they couldn't have ripped off Ann Romney or Cindy McCain instead?

— Michael Crowley (@michaelcrowley) July 19, 2016

Yeah. Weird that. #MelanieTrump #RNCinCLE https://t.co/jG0WWoQrZJ

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

That Jarret Hill dude is sure gonna get his 15 minutes tomorrow. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

That Jarret Hill dude is sure gonna get his 15 minutes tomorrow. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

That's not what you want. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE https://t.co/2AzOsFc1rc

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

Honestly feel a little bad for Melania, who likely had no idea the speech was plagiarized.

— Alex Parker (@AlexParkerDC) July 19, 2016

My thoughts exactly. Most in the MSM smell blood however. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE https://t.co/aTKvTcg2ag

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

My thoughts exactly. Most in the MSM smell blood however. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE https://t.co/aTKvTcg2ag

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

Careful not to overdo it MSM hacks. Not that I care if you screw up, but you're working against yourselves. #Trump https://t.co/nhV0QpC8pG

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

Expect "but Joe Biden" to be the phrase of the day tomorrow

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) July 19, 2016

.@BenjySarlin If the shoe fits. #MelaniaTrump #RNCinCLE

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 19, 2016

Person close to Trump is blaming Paul Manafort for "approving speeches," says excellently sourced @costareports on MSNBC

— Marc Ambinder (@marcambinder) July 19, 2016

Never seen another campaign where these internecine attacks get launched so fast - or picked up so uncritically https://t.co/SgCGGUeGJ0

— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) July 19, 2016

Trump's "very proud" of Melania, but was her speech very plagiarized? https://t.co/2C7bnbnN2j

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) July 19, 2016

Parts of Melania Trump’s speech tonight were strikingly similar to Michelle Obama’s in 2008 https://t.co/kQIyZWhC9b pic.twitter.com/UUvqIhj72L

— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) July 19, 2016

Police Kill Afghan 'Refugee' in Ax-Wielding Attack in Würzburg, Germany

There's a new attack every day.

If we see an increase of attacks in Germany, maybe Merkel will start to change course on the "refugee" crisis?

At WSJ, "Afghan Migrant Shot Dead After Hatchet Attack on German Train":

BERLIN—A 17-year-old Afghan migrant wielding a hatchet and a knife injured four people on a train in Würzburg, Germany, Monday evening before being shot dead by police, the authorities said.

Police were investigating a witness report that the attacker made an Islamist exclamation, Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann said on German television. If confirmed, the incident would represent the most significant Islamist attack in Germany since a Kosovar gunman killed two American servicemen in 2011.

Three of the victims were seriously injured, officials said.

The attacker was believed to be a 17-year-old man from Afghanistan who came to Germany as a refugee, Mr. Herrmann said in television interviews.

“I am appalled about this,” Mr. Herrmann said. “He injured a number of people, slashing around himself with a hatchet and a knife.”

Mr. Herrmann said that one witness reported hearing the attacker shout “Allahu akbar,” or “God is great.” However, other passengers on the train, he said, didn’t recognize “any particular Islamist motive” to the attack.

Unlike France and Belgium, Germany has avoided deadly Islamic State-inspired attacks even as authorities have warned that the stream of refugees and other migrants that have poured into the country presented a security risk. Roughly a million people arrived in Germany last year to request asylum, many of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The attack is likely to add fuel to an intense debate across Europe on immigration, Islam and how to respond to the wave of people from the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere seeking refuge on the continent. While Germany initially welcomed hundreds of thousands of people last fall, Chancellor Angela Merkel has since scrambled to limit the flow...

Well, you'd think an attack would "add fuel to an intense debate" across Europe. The continent's practically going up in smoke as it is.

Still more.

Protests in Cleveland at the Republican National Convention (VIDEO)

At the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, "Muslim, Black Lives Matter and conservative protesters clash at RNC demonstration."

There's video at that link.

And at Fox News, Griff Jenkins for "On the Record" with Greta, "RNC protests attract hodge-podge of groups."

List of Speakers for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland

Well, it's on.

We had the floor fight convention chaos this afternoon, but the main speakers are up on the podium. Former U.S. Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell is speaking as this post goes live.

Here's the brief listing:

Daily Themes & Headliners:

Monday: Make America Safe Again
Headliners: Melania Trump, Lieutenant General (ret.) Michael Flynn, U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Jason Beardsley and U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (Mont.).

Tuesday: Make America Work Again
Headliners: Donald Trump, Jr., U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Ben Carson and Kimberlin Brown.

Wednesday: Make America First Again
Headliners: Lynne Patton; Eric Trump; former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich and his wife, Callista; and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, whom Donald Trump has chosen as his vice presidential running mate.

Thursday: Make America One Again
Headliners: Peter Thiel, Tom Barrack, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump

Keep reading for the full list of speakers.

It's pretty impressive.

LBCC's Eloy Ortiz Oakley Selected as California Community Colleges Chancellor

He's the president of my college, moving on to greener, more powerful pastures.

At the Long Beach Press-Telegram, "BREAKING: Long Beach’s Eloy Oakley named chancellor of California Community Colleges."

Read it at the link.

Oakley's a glitzy showman without a Ph.D. He acts like some big mover and shaker all the time. Meanwhile, the overall quality of our college demographic continues to fall, and there's very little programmatic support that improves the classroom experience.

Anyway, good for him. We get a new college president.

Over 100 Nude Women Pose Against Trump at Republican National Convention in Cleveland

Heh.

At Blazing Cat Fur, "AVERT YOUR EYES! Over 100 Nude Women Pose Against Trump in Cleveland":

More than a hundred women stripped and posed naked with mirrors in Cleveland, answering a photographer’s call to blend art with politics and portray Donald Trump as unfit for the White House...

One of the women pictured there has a faux-Sinead O'Connor buzz cut, lol.

And notice they're all white chicks. So much for leftist diversity!

It's too hilarious.

Black Marxist Cornel West Slams Hillary Clinton's 'Dangerous Neoliberal Ideology...' (VIDEO)

Man, this dude's a shuckin' and jivin' huckster par excellence!

He throws Bernie Sanders under the bus all the while calling him affectionately "Brotha' Bernie," heh. And West then gloms onto "Sista' Jill" Stein because she represents the "progressive" alternative to Hillary Clinton's "dangerous neoliberal ideology" and the "neo-fascism" of Donald Trump.

What a real piece of work, lol.

He's interviewed by communist Amy Goodman, at Democracy Now!, "Cornel West: Why I Endorse Green Party's Jill Stein Over 'Neoliberal Disaster' Hillary Clinton."

And see earlier, "Bernie Sanders Names Hateful Leftist Cornel West on Democratic Platform Committee." Brotha Cornel talks about ultimately dissing the platform committee with the "Hillary forces" refused to put "Medicare for all" and "the Palestinian issue" up for the final vote.

Also, see David Horowitz's chapter outing Dr. West's radical leftist hatred in his recent book, Radicals: Portraits of a Destructive Passion.

Sheriff David Clarke Slams 'Hateful Ideology Called Black Lives Matter' (VIDEO)

I doubt Don Lemon knew what he was getting into here, hence he cut to a commercial as Sheriff Clarke was just getting warmed up.

Watch, via Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit, "REALITY MAKES A RARE INTRUSION INTO DON LEMON’S WORLD WHEN HE INTERVIEWS MILWAUKEE SHERIFF DAVID CLARKE..."

Here's Molly Crabapple at #RNCinCLE

Following-up, "Cut Along the Dotted Line — #RNCinCLE."

She's got me blocked for my Emma Quangel blogging, so I logged out on Twitter.

Before I log back in, here's the witch at the convention, dissing journalists as cloven-hoofed demons:

#RNCinCLE at a 3 to 1 journalist to human ration. Journalists dancing on cloven hooves, clicking their little tails pic.twitter.com/DKLEr4gdtO

— Molly Crabapple (@mollycrabapple) July 18, 2016

Cut Along the Dotted Line — #RNCinCLE

Heh, seen at that last entry linking London's Daily Mail, "Citizen Patriots Reject Cleveland Police Calls to Abandon Open-Carry at #RNCinCLE."

Here, "First Amendment: Jim Gilles was demonstrating outside the RNC and said: 'No Muslim is a friend of mine. I have read the Koran and it says hate all non Muslims and that would mean me to. So I hate them'."

Molly Crabapple, the leftist who doxxed Emma Quangel, is on the scene, "A man in an Allah is Satan shirt spins depraved hatesex fantasies about Micah X Johnson."

A man in an Allah is Satan shirt spins depraved hatesex fantasies about Micah X Johnson. #RNCinCLE pic.twitter.com/wUadmx4fQc

— Molly Crabapple (@mollycrabapple) July 18, 2016

Citizen Patriots Reject Cleveland Police Calls to Abandon Open-Carry at #RNCinCLE

One of the dudes is sporting a "Hillary for Prison" t-shirt, heh.

Notice that these are leftist "calls" to disarm law-abiding citizens. Ohio's apparently a big open-carry state, lol.

At London's Daily Mail, "Locked and loaded: Open-carry activists defy police calls to leave their guns at home as they parade assault rifles and handguns while backing Trump outside the Republican National Convention."

Dad Pulls Loose Tooth in Particularly Creative Way (VIDEO)

It's Sean Copeland and his son Brodie, two Americans who were slaughtered during the jihad truck rampage in Nice.

A beautiful video. What a great dad. And what an enormous loss of human life, for no reason other than an Islamic nihilist death wish.

At iOWNTHEWORLD Report, "Not Just Another “Dad Pulls Loose Tooth in Creative Way” Video."

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls Booed at Memorial Service for #Nice Jihad Victims (VIDEO)

Well, remember, he told French citizens to "learn to live" with Islamic jihad.

You know, in the name of diversity, or something.

At London's Daily Mail, "'Murderer!' Mourners boo French PM Manuel Valls over his failure to prevent terror attacks as thousands - and a Premier League football star - pack Nice promenade to remember the dead."

Black Lives Matter and Afro-Centric Insanity — #BatonRouge

Here's Robert Stacy McCain's analysis of the Baton Rouge killer, done as only Robert Stacy McCain can.

See, "GAVIN LONG: ‘Cosmo Ausar Setepenra’ and the Dangerous Kind of Crazy":

Gavin Long’s bizarre Afrocentric cult mentality is neither new nor uncommon. Here is a 2004 Associated Press story about one such cult:

EATONTON, Ga. — Pyramids, obelisks and a lonely sphinx stand deserted on the Egyptian-themed compound where as many as 500 members of a quasi-religious sect lived only five years ago.

The United Nuwaubian Nation of Moors has gone quiet since its leader, Malachi York, was sentenced to 135 years in federal prison in April for molesting 14 boys and girls whose parents were members of his group.

The federal government has seized the Nuwaubians’ 476-acre farm in this middle Georgia town and the group’s members have dispersed. “York was it. Everything flowed from York. There was never any mistake about that,” said Putnam County Sheriff Howard Sills, who has clashed with the Nuwaubians since York moved his followers from New York City’s Brooklyn borough to this rural county in 1993. “He was the absolute ruler. There was no one else,” Sill said.

At their height, the Nuwaubians brought 5,000 people to Eatonton for Savior’s Day to celebrate York’s birthday.

In 1999, as many as 500 people lived on the compound, practicing York’s malleable religion that shifted from Islamic roots to Judaism, Christianity and Egyptian mysticism, with members at times dressing as cowboys and American Indians. At one time, York even incorporated space aliens into his teachings, claiming that he was an extraterrestrial from the planet “Rizq.”

This kind of kook cult conspiracy stuff is always floating around out there. You’ve got white people who are into weird pagan sex cults, feminists who are into astrology, tarot, “goddess spirituality,” et cetera. Was it entirely coincidental that a crazy kook cultist like Gavin Long was inspired to drive to Louisiana and shoot cops? No, because the “Black Lives Matter” movement appeals to the same kind of Afrocentric racial insanity that led Gavin long to rename himself “Cosmo Setepenra.”

Keep reading.

He was crazy. But he was leftist crazy, heh.

Antonio Sabàto, Jr., at the #RNCinCLE

Heh, this dude's hot.

Brooke Baldwin was just interviewing him on CNN. She was probably creaming while checking out this hot Republican stud, heh.

He's speaking tonight.

Massacre of Cops in Baton Rouge — Key Step in Obama's Race War — #BlackLivesMatter

From Matthew Vadum, at FrontPage Magazine, "If you didn’t believe Obama wanted a race war before, you better believe it now":

CLEVELAND -- In what is becoming a depressingly regular occurrence in the Obama era, police officers were murdered by a black militant in a shootout in Baton Rouge on Sunday, apparently in revenge for the recent police-involved death of black career criminal Alton Sterling outside a Baton Rouge food store.

At time of writing, three police officers had succumbed to the injuries they suffered in Louisiana's capital city. Another three were wounded.

Of course, murdering police officers has long been encouraged by activists with the Marxist, anti-American, revolutionary Black Lives Matter cult, with the support of the activist Left and financing from speculator George Soros. A year ago Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, who openly advocates the mass murder of whites, called for “10,000 fearless men” to “rise up and kill those who kill us.” Like many radicals, Farrakhan mischaracterizes Black Lives Matter as a rising civil rights movement.

President Barack Hussein Obama, who a decade ago promoted inter-racial warfare in Kenya, has long tried to provoke civil unrest here in the U.S. with his hateful anti-cop rhetoric and his relentless demonization of opponents. His goal is fundamental transformation of the United States. A Red diaper baby who identifies violence-espousing communist Frantz Fanon as an intellectual influence, he has also steadfastly refused to condemn Black Lives Matter. In fact Obama has lavished attention on the movement’s leaders and invited them to the White House over and over again.

The Baton Rouge attack came 10 days after a black militant murdered five Dallas area police officers, the deadliest attack on U.S. law enforcement since Sept. 11, 2001.

A few days later Obama flew to Dallas and attended a memorial service at which he lectured the dead officers' relatives about how racist and brutal police officers are. The very next day Obama hosted leaders of Black Lives Matter, whose members urge the murder of cops, at the White House.

The Baton Rouge attack came 12 days after local police killed homeless recidivist Sterling during an altercation. Sterling, who had reportedly threatened a passer-by with a gun, violently resisted arrest and tried to grab a policeman's gun.

The shooter in Baton Rouge was killed by police following an exchange of gunfire outside a fitness center. He has been identified as Gavin Eugene Long, who claimed to have been a member of Nation of Islam. He also reportedly turned 29 yesterday.

Long was honorably discharged from the U.S. Marines in 2010. A fervent racist, he ranted against "crackers," the Daily Caller reports.

Long, who also used the name Cosmo Ausar Setepenra, talked about the Dallas massacre and recent police shootings of black men in social media posts, according to Heavy. “Violence is not THE answer (its [sic] a answer), but at what point do you stand up so that your people dont [sic] become the Native Americans…EXTINCT?,” he tweeted July 13.

Referring to the death of Alton Sterling, he said, "If I would have been there with Alton -- clap," Long said in a July 14 video. In the video he also discussed black liberation theology and said he wrote a book.

"I wrote it for my dark-skinned brothers," he said of the book.

"If you look at all the rebels like Black Panthers, Huey P. Newton, Malcolm X ... Elijah Muhammad, they was light-skinned. But we know how hard y'all got it."

In another video, Long justified his fellow ex-soldier and black militant Micah X. Johnson's killing of cops in Dallas. "It's justice, you know what I'm saying," Long said.

Long may also have telegraphed his plans in a cryptic Twitter post early Sunday morning. He wrote, "Just [because] you wake up every morning doesn't mean that you're living. And just [because] you shed your physical body doesn't mean that you're dead."

The officers Long killed are Brad Garafola, 45, Matthew Gerald, 41, and Montrell Jackson, 32.

Jackson, a black man, had poignantly sounded a note of despair in a Facebook post July 8, three days after Sterling's death at the hands of police and as racial tensions ramped up in Baton Rouge and across the nation...

That's a great piece.

Still more.

Reds Exploiting Blacks: The Roots of Black Lives Matter

Actually, this isn't new.

The same key organizers who pushed the Occupy movement were on the ground when Ferguson went up in flames. Professional communist agitators have been behind Black Lives Matter from day one.

At Blazing Cat Fur:

The Black Lives Matter movement (BLM) casts itself as a spontaneous uprising born of inner city frustration, but is, in fact, the latest and most dangerous face of a web of well-funded communist/socialist organizations that have been agitating against America for decades. Its agitation has provoked police killings and other violence, lawlessness and unrest in minority communities throughout the U.S. If allowed to continue, that agitation could devolve into anarchy and civil war. The BLM crowd appears to be spoiling for just such an outcome...

Keep reading.

Previously, "Black Lives Matter Was Gaining Ground, Then — Oops — It Revealed Its True Face."

Cleveland Braces for Major Security Threats at Republican National Convention

I'd be surprised if we didn't see Ferguson-style rioting over these next few days. And if we do, those comparisons we're seeing to the Summer of '68 are going to be prophetic.

At NYT, "A Civil Start to Protests, but Cleveland Is Bracing for Worse":

CLEVELAND — The barricades were up and the police were ready, but the rowdy protests expected to descend this week on Cleveland for the Republican National Convention were contained to small pockets of unrest amid largely peaceful demonstrations across the city.

At the height of the protests early Sunday evening, about 200 demonstrators marched down Euclid Avenue in the heart of downtown, stopping traffic and shouting, “No justice, no peace, no racist police!” as they neared Quicken Loans Arena, the site of the convention. The crowd, which was also directing its ire at Donald J. Trump, was circled by police officers in cars and on bicycles and horseback.

Some protesters said they had been handled roughly by the police, and there were reports of people being detained.

“They pushed us against the wall and said, ‘We are going to search your bags,’” said Cloud Kallisti, 43, of Akron.

The protesters were animated by both Mr. Trump, the presumptive presidential nominee, and recent violence between the police and civilians. While some protesters spilled into the streets, there were few signs of the violence or mass arrests that the authorities had feared, giving the day a feeling of relative calm before a potential storm, with the convention beginning Monday....

The coalition of protesters was broad, including some from Black Lives Matter, a pro-Palestine group and Code Pink, an all-female group whose members showed up wearing pink Statue of Liberty costumes.

Marching alongside the protesters was a group of volunteers calling themselves the “Peace Team.” Dressed in bright yellow jerseys, they said they were around to keep the peace.

Despite the general civility on Sunday, the police are expecting the protests to intensify this week. City officials have devised plans to handle mass arrests, identifying jail facilities that could hold more than 975 people and planning to keep courts open for 20 hours daily to process cases. Hospitals have stockpiled medical supplies and prepared for convention-related emergencies.

Cleveland is bringing in roughly 2,500 law enforcement officers from as far away as California, Florida and Texas to bolster its convention-dedicated force of about 500. It is also deploying a video unit to document crowd management and police activity.

Calvin D. Williams, Cleveland’s police chief, said at a news conference on Sunday morning that the city could not be better prepared.

“We planned for almost anything and everything,” he said. “It’s game time,” he added. “We are ready for it.”

"Game time."

That's for sure. Let's hope police open up with some full-body slamming on those Black Lives Matter and Code Pink protesters, lol.

Irina Shayk's Tinfoil Hat

Heh, she's prepping for the New World Order, lol.

At London's Daily Mail, "Bradley Cooper's girlfriend Irina Shayk sunbathes in makeshift tin-foil turban in Italy."

And Bradley Cooper's dating her? Lucky dude!

She's crazy glamorous.

#NEW | Irina Shayk ~ In Ibiza (17.07.2016) pic.twitter.com/pfoj6QiN3L

— Kristen Vicky (@HQCelebrity1) July 18, 2016

She's a freakin' hot babe. (More here and here.)

Jessica Valenti is Absurd

She has no credible argument to Dana Loesch's powerful new ad for the NRA:

This NRA ad invoking women's "empowerment" & guns as protection from rape & domestic violence is absurd https://t.co/qIFmN9b5Pb

— Jessica Valenti (@JessicaValenti) July 13, 2016

How unfortunate that you side with criminals over women defending themselves. Predictable, but unfortunate. https://t.co/QihOrw9bT4

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) July 16, 2016

My NRA ad has triggered the criminal-supporting, women's studies SJWs who've spun careers from whining about how they're women.

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) July 16, 2016

SJWs argue that women are too stupid to own a firearm while clinging to debunked Kellerman data. Shame on these embarrassments.

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) July 16, 2016

A hazard of being a rapist is that your victim may drop you in self defense. SJWs want to shame the woman and defend the rapist. Sick. #2A

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) July 16, 2016

The Left's Inferno of Anti-Cop Agitation Spreads

From Heather Mac Donald, at City Journal, "The Fire Spreads":

Between the Dallas assassinations and today’s, officers have been shot at and ambushed in Tennessee, Missouri, Georgia, and Washington, D.C. Authorities have been circumspect in identifying the reasons behind those shootings—unlike the alacrity with which racial motives are assigned to cops when they shoot someone in the line of duty— and the incidents have been brushed under the rug. But we are quickly reaching the worst days of the nightmare 1960s, when it seemed that the very foundation of society was breaking apart. The difference between the 1960s and today is that the hatred of law enforcement and of whites is being stoked by the highest reaches of the establishment. Universities sometimes seem like little else than factories of desperately ginned-up racial grievance. That the cop killer in Dallas and apparently in Baton Rouge as well came out of the military is an indication that the happy talk about how the military is an engine of racial reconciliation is naïve. The country has been pretending that the main source of racism today comes from whites. Anyone who has spent time in the inner city and even more middle-class black precincts—such as college campuses—knows differently.

RTWT.

And here's her book, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

Law and Order Will Headline the Republican National Convention in Cleveland (VIDEO)

It's going to be big.

One of the first things Donald Trump said in his "60 Minutes" interview tonight is that "we need law and order." (At the video below.)

I mean, we've endured some extremely horrific, traumatizing events these past couple of weeks, and Trump would be foolish not to exploit Americans' fear and anxiety for political gain.

At the Wall Street Journal, "Law and Order Will Be a Big Republican Convention Theme":

The Republican National Convention will open Monday under the pall of antipolice violence, a development likely to bring a new emphasis to presumptive nominee Donald Trump’s repeated pledges to make law and order a theme of both his nominating convention and the looming fall campaign against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The Sunday killing of three police officers in Baton Rouge, La., rattled a nation already reeling after a recent terrorist attack in Orlando, Fla., as well as a summer of extraordinary violence and turmoil at home and abroad that includes the deaths of two black men at the hands of police, a terrorist attack in France and an assault on police at a protest in Dallas.

In response, Mr. Trump has declared that the GOP will run on a platform of taking decisive action to end the violence. Indeed, the party said Sunday that the theme of Monday’s opening-night program will be “Make America Safe Again.”

“We grieve for the officers killed in Baton Rouge today. How many law enforcement and people have to die because of a lack of leadership in our country? We demand law and order,” Mr. Trump wrote online after the Baton Rouge shooting.

Introducing his running mate Mike Pence on Saturday—the day before the Baton Rouge shooting—Mr. Trump described the Republican ticket as “the law and order candidates,” and said that Republicans are “the law and order party.”

“We’re going to change things around. There’s going to be respect again for law and order,” Mr. Trump said.

More.

Leanna Decker Embraces Nature (VIDEO)

Via Playboy:

The Pine Marten Constantly on the Hunt (VIDEO)

"The Hunt" is back on for a new episode tonight, on BBC America.

I'm enjoying it.

Young Girl Traumatized by Nice Terror Attack, Details Horrific Scene, Dead Bodies Everywhere, Severed Heads, Blood (VIDEO)

Well, I guess she's lucky to be alive.

But yeah, I can only imagine.

At CNN:

U.S. Resumes Military Operations at Incirlik Air Base Following Attempted Coup in Turkey (VIDEO)

Following-up from yesterday, "Stability in Turkey is Key Strategic Goal of U.S. Foreign Policy."

At Legal Insurrection, "UPDATE: Operations Resume at Incirlik Air Base."

Cosmo Setepenra Alias Used by Baton Rouge Cop-Killing Suspect Gavin Eugene Long

I've been holding off on updates, because mainstream media outlets have really delayed reporting on the identity of the Baton Rouge suspect.

Chuck Ross at the Daily Caller was apparently the first to troll through Gavin Long's social media accounts. See, "Exclusive: Gavin Eugene Long Was Nation of Islam Member, Railed Against ‘Crackers’ on YouTube Channel."

But see also BuzzFeed, "This is What We Know About the Man Who Shot Three Baton Rouge Police Officers."

The suspect, who apparently used the alias Cosmo Setepenra, is seen showing solidarity with Dallas police killer Micah Xavier Johnson":

Tweet is from Gavin Long aka Cosmo Setepenra the #BatonRouge killer. pic.twitter.com/kQUW3Pgy2r

— Nick Short (@PoliticalShort) July 17, 2016

This cheap suit wants to blame his buddy's murders on "white supremacy," while killer tagged him on Twitter pic.twitter.com/9Xxa6KohTV

— David Reaboi (@davereaboi) July 17, 2016

A cursory read of Gavin Eugene Long's twitter feed makes it pretty clear what his motivations were: pic.twitter.com/juRddCJNcA

— Jeff B/DDHQ (@EsotericCD) July 17, 2016

Gavin Eugene Long, member of "Nation Of Islam Member", rants on anti-cop, rants against ‘crackers’.#BatonRouge pic.twitter.com/QkPh81mutV

— Raven*H⚓️U*Wolf (@RavenHUWolf) July 18, 2016

MSM outlets are slow to pick up on the news, perhaps due to the pressure of confirmation, or probably because the suspect further destroys the false "Black Lives Matter" narrative.

However, the Kansas City Star has a pretty good discussion, "Gunman suspected of killing 3 Baton Rouge officers identified as Kansas City man":

Gunman suspected of killing 3 Baton Rouge officers identified as Kansas City man: https://t.co/3jHiu04Inp

— The Kansas City Star (@KCStar) July 17, 2016

While Long appeared to have little presence on social media using his birth name, he left an online trail linking to various social media accounts and websites that reference the online identity “Cosmo Setepenra.” The domain for these accounts and websites are registered under the name Gavin Long and list a Kansas City address.

A phone number listed for the domain convoswithcosmo.club was also used in websites where Long apparently used the identity of Cosmo Setepenra. No person with the name Cosmo Setepenra appeared to be otherwise listed in Kansas City or elsewhere.

As Cosmos, a self-proclaimed “freedom strategist, mental game coach, nutritionist, author and spiritual advisor,” Long shared his perspective frequently on platforms such as Instagram, Twitter, YouTube and a personal website that touted the “Convos with Cosmo.”

On his website, “Convos with Cosmos,” he wrote blog posts about sex, health and entertainment and appeared to sell holistic health coaching sessions. In recent weeks, he had shared commentary about high-profile officer involved shootings, including Alton Sterling, who was shot by police outside a Baton Rouge gas station earlier this month.

He told a YouTube audience that he traveled to Dallas before the police shooting and was in the city during a sniper attack that killed five officers.

He opined on how history shows how “100 percent of revolutions, of victims fighting their oppression, from victims fighting their bullies, 100 percent have been successful through fighting back, through bloodshed. Zero have been successful just over simply protesting. It doesn’t...it has never worked and it never will. You got to fight back.”

He encouraged “real” and “alpha” individuals who wanted change to take a different tactic in invoking change.

“It’s only fighting back or money,” Long said. “That’s all they care about. Revenue and blood. Revenue and blood. Revenue and blood.”

Recent tweets seemed to reference his desire to see a more powerful, unified force combat white power and “elevate” black people.

“Power doesn’t respect weakness. Power only respects Power.

# Alton # Castile,” he tweeted on July 7.

He also tweeted:

“Violence is not THE answer (its a answer), but at what point do you stand up so that your people dont become the Native Americans...EXTINCT?” and “Just bc you wake up every morning doesn't mean that you're living. And just bc you shed your physical body doesn't mean that you're dead.”

Authorities initially believed that two other assailants might be at large, but hours later said the dead gunman was the only person who fired at the officers.

The local FBI office is assisting with the investigation stemming from the shooting earlier Sunday. However, details of their investigation were not released, said Bridget Patton, spokeswoman for the FBI in Kansas City.

Louisiana State Police Timeline of Events in Baton Rouge Police Shooting

Updating.

Seen now on Twitter:

LSP press conference: Timeline of events concerning #BRShooting. @BRPD @EBRSheriff https://t.co/mKx0ukvGb7

— LA State Police (@LAStatePolice) July 17, 2016

#UPDATE (#BatonRouge)
Louisiana State Police issue timeline of #BRShooting. pic.twitter.com/0kfz0GhoB9

— Devon Heinen (@DevonHeinen) July 17, 2016

Previously, "Gavin Eugene Long Identified as Suspect in Baton Rouge Police Ambush Killings."

Zack Ford on Twitter Justifies Murder of Baton Rouge Police Officers

It's pretty disgusting, but think about who this guy works for.

At Twitchy, "Think Progress editor instructed to delete his account after atrocious tweet on police killings."

Center for American Progress founded by John Podesta, Mrs. Clinton's campaign chairman. pic.twitter.com/cUbda8q8iK

— James Taranto (@jamestaranto) July 17, 2016

Previously, "Gavin Eugene Long Identified as Suspect in Baton Rouge Police Ambush Killings."

'Decline of the West' Banned from Twitter

John Rivers on Twitter has been tweeting about this.

"Decline of the West" was eventually banned for "targeted abuse," although the real reason looks like he was telling too much truth.





More here.

Gavin Eugene Long Identified as Suspect in Baton Rouge Police Ambush Killings

Following-up, "DEVELOPING: Three Police Officers Killed in Baton Rouge Ambush."

CBS News broke the story on the suspect's identity. I'll update as more information becomes available.

.@CBSNews report: Suspect in deadly #BRshooting identified as Gavin Eugene Long of Kansas City https://t.co/tivVfEzszv

— The Advocate (@theadvocatebr) July 17, 2016

Dead #BatonRouge shooter identified, apparently attacked police on his birthday https://t.co/NdZ1LqoyHq pic.twitter.com/1WelLP0Ox4

— CBS News (@CBSNews) July 17, 2016

Wow! Kelly Brook is Packing on the Pounds!

She's definitely filling out, heh.

Here's a tweet of her looking full-figured at the #Ischia Global Film & Music Fest in Italy.

But check WWTDD, where Ms. Kelly has clearly plumped up, "Kelly Brook Saturated."

DEVELOPING: Three Police Officers Killed in Baton Rouge Ambush [UPDATED]

Details are still sketchy.

See the Baton Rouge Advocate, "Three officers, 1 suspect dead in Baton Rouge shooting; 2 'persons of interest' questioned."

I'll have updates, but until then, one suspect is dead, and it's believed that he was the shooter. And according to CBS that suspect was identified as black. If true, and if he's shown to have ties to the Black Lives Matter movement, the political ramifications are going to be enormous. Obama's words at the Dallas memorial are going to be cited as inciting anti-cop violence.

Expect updates:

The #BatonRouge shooter described as black male with body armor https://t.co/OEBlVd7SUr https://t.co/FgjV19sVV2

— CBS News (@CBSNews) July 17, 2016

Edmonson says no active shooter situation right now. Believe person killed was responsible shooter. #BRshooting

— Elizabeth Crisp (@elizabethcrisp) July 17, 2016

UPDATE: Here's the latest, "Gavin Eugene Long Identified as Suspect in Baton Rouge Police Ambush Killings." Expect additional updates.

ICYMI: Sebastian Gorka, Defeating Jihad [BUMPED]

This book looks like a quick read, and a good one. I perused a copy up a Vroman's in Pasadena last month.

Check it out.

At Amazon, Defeating Jihad: The Winnable War.

Plus, Plus, Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.

Joby Warrick, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS.

Patrick Cockburn, The Rise of Islamic State: ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution.

Fawaz Gerges, ISIS: A History.

BONUS: Robert Spencer, The Complete Infidel's Guide to ISIS, and The Complete Infidel's Guide to Iran.

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

The Dixie Chicks played there last night.

It's right behind the New York New York Hotel, where there's now a new dining and entertainment promenade between that hotel and the Monte Carlo. (We vacationed in Las Vegas this last week. You might have seen a couple of my tweets at @AmPowerBlog.)

It's very impressive.

See Wikipedia for details.

Here's The War on Cops Cover Graphics

I've been meaning to post an image of the cover. I usually take a photo myself, but this is a nice uploaded image from the Manhattan Institute, where Heather Mac Donald is an endowed fellow.

Here's the book, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

Don't Miss: Heather Mac Donald, The War on Cops

I can't promote this book enough, so don't be surprised if I'm linking it like crazy over the next few days. Do yourself a favor and pick up a copy. She should be the most in-demand speaker on the television interview circuit, and her book should be up for a Pulitzer.

Even top Black Lives Matter activists are feakin' that their movement is going to get blamed for the Baton Rouge cop killings this morning, although the identity of the suspects has not been released yet.

More on that later.

At Amazon, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

And previously, ICYMI, "Heather Mac Donald Discusses the 'War on Cops," the Ferguson Effect, and Black-on-Black Violence."

Sunday Cartoons

Flopping Aces, "Sunday Funnies," isn't up yet.

So, until later:



Also at Theo Spark's, "Cartoon Roundup."

Cartoon Credit: A.F. Branco, "Box Truck Terrorism."

Rachel Maddow Befuddled by Hillary's Horrible No-Good 'Rate of Return' on Massive Campaign Ad Spending (VIDEO)

I mentioned this yesterday, heh.

See, "Hillary Clinton Slumps in L.A. Times Daybreak Tracking Poll."

Here's Rachel Maddow, being forced to deal with some facts about the presidential horse race that she'd clearly rather not. And note Guy Cecil, interviewed there, who heads-up strategy for Priorities USA, the Democrat establishment's in-house super-PAC. He's all, "Well, we're going to define Donald Trump early, and that oughta show that the Republican anti-Trump super-PACs were doing it wrong in the primaries."

Right.

Trump hasn't even started running ad buys yet. And one way or another Republicans are going to be up on the air in battleground states, and the anti-Hillary attacks are going to be merciless.

At MSNBC:



See also the Hill, "Polls suggest Clinton-Trump race tightening."

And at Bloomberg, "Hillary Clinton Confronts Her Growing Trust Problem, With Scant Results."

Stability in Turkey is Key Strategic Goal of U.S. Foreign Policy

Following-up, "Turkey Coup d'État Risks Major Ramifications for U.S. Foreign Policy (VIDEO)," and "Turkey's Instability Threatens to Weaken the War on Terror."

A great piece, from Tracy Wilkinson and W.J. Hennigan, at the Los Angeles Times, "Straddling East and West, Turkey is a critical U.S. ally in fight against Islamic State":

Straddling East and West, #Turkey is a critical U.S. ally in fight against #IslamicState. https://t.co/UVcwAYi6sl

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 17, 2016

Dramatic @LATimes front page extra today. #Turkey pic.twitter.com/xA76Dv6q0L

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 16, 2016

The sprawling nation of Turkey is one of the United States’ most important and critically strategic allies, straddling the divide between the Middle East and the West.

As the only majority-Muslim member of NATO, Turkey has lent its soil to U.S. air bases, supported American military operations in key conflicts — such as Syria today and the Balkans in the 1990s — and served, until recent years, as a rare friendly interlocutor between Muslim nations and Israel.

But Turkey has also been a complicated and prickly ally, and more so as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan deepened his autocratic hold on power.

Turkey’s stability and the friendliness of its military toward the West are also of vital importance to the U.S. and for countries throughout Europe.

Turkey has been a NATO ally since 1952, and U.S. warplanes have used Incirlik Air Base in the south during the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

An estimated 1,800 U.S. military personnel are assigned to the base and the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, the capital.

Security at Incirlik is of critical importance for the U.S. military because there is a stockpile of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons at the base.

The B61 thermonuclear weapon is the last of its kind, the only tactical nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal. Unlike strategic weapons, designed to destroy cities and hardened military targets, the tactical weapons are intended for use on a battlefield, delivered by aircraft at treetop level or from high altitudes.

The exact number of B61 bombs at Incirlik is classified, but arms control analysts estimate there are about 50 deployed there.

With  the second largest army in NATO, Erdogan was initially hesitant to take part in the U.S-led effort against Islamic State militants in Syria. For Erdogan, the greater goal was ousting Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Erdogan was accused in some U.S. circles of turning a blind eye toward the threat of Islamic State.

However, after a series of high-profile suicide attacks in Turkish cities, Erdogan agreed a year ago to allow U.S. warplanes to fly combat sorties from Incirlik.

Since then, the intensity of the U.S.-led air war in Syria increased sharply because the flight time into Syria was drastically reduced compared with using other, more distant U.S. bases. The Pentagon in March ordered military family members to leave Incirlik due to the rising risk of possible terror attacks against Americans at the base.

Turkey has also begun to clamp down on smuggling routes along its 500-mile border with Syria that Islamic State militants use to move fighters, money and weapons -- especially along a porous 60-mile stretch known as the Manbij Pocket.

Thousands of foreign fighters have slipped across the border amid the maze of supply lines that go through Turkey to join the various militant factions in the multi-sided Syrian war.

The U.S.-led coalition, with Turkey's help, is in the midst of a massive, months-long operation to close the Manbij Pocket. Since the operation began, coalition warplanes have launched about 400 airstrikes to support ground forces known as the Syrian Arab Coalition to push the last remaining Islamic State fighters from the area...

Still more.

WATCH: You Can Briefly See Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel Plowing Down Revellers in This Video from the #Nice Jihad Attack

What's astonishing is how packed the crowd is along the promenade.

Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel was apparently zig-zagging left and right, up onto the sidewalk and back down, mowing down people like bowling pins.

Watch, at Blazing Cat Fur, "Front View of Truck Used in Muslim Terror Attack in Nice, France."

Emily Ratajkowski Teases Fans with Bikini Selfie

Hey, it's the social media age, and if you're not promoting your assets while you've got the goods, you're doing it wrong.

Ms. Ratajkowski certainly knows how to play the game.

At the Sun U.K., "'NATURAL BEAUTY' - Emily Ratajkowski teases fans with cheeky booby selfie: The dark-haired model posts latest bikini snap showing off her enviable cleavage."

👋🏽 pic.twitter.com/UdNtXe1r4X

— Emily Ratajkowski (@emrata) July 13, 2016

Memphis Commercial Appeal Apologizes for Dallas Cop-Killer Headline: 'Gunman Targeted Whites...'

Maybe at some earlier time I'd have been surprised by this, but not now.

Most of our major institutions, public and private, are afraid of alienating the unruly masses of the radical left.

Here's the Commercial Appeal's report on protests against newspaper earlier this week, "Protesters demonstrate outside Commercial Appeal offices, sides promise monthly talks":

About 50 protesters gathered in front of The Commercial Appeal offices Wednesday to voice their disappointment in the newspaper for its coverage historically.

Kim Hill said she canceled her subscription because she felt the newspaper didn’t cover the African-American community properly.

“I feel like black people have been represented in an unfavorable light by The Commercial Appeal,” Hill said.

Rev. Earle Fisher announced the protest Tuesday via Facebook Live. He called for people to gather at the newspaper at 495 Union Avenue to protest what he called an “incendiary headline” published on the front page of Saturday’s newspaper.

The headline he referenced reads “Gunman targeted whites,” referring to last week’s fatal shooting of five police officers and wounding of others during a Black Lives Matter protest in Dallas.

The Commercial Appeal Editor Louis Graham responded Tuesday with a column, writing “Simply put, we got it wrong.”

Here's the editorial, with a picture of the editor.

Maybe they should have stripped him naked, thrown his body on hot coals, and let the Black Panthers open fire with salt buckshot rounds.

Would that've even appeased the radical black mass hordes?

Turkey's Instability Threatens to Weaken the War on Terror

Following-up from yesterday, "Turkey Coup d'État Risks Major Ramifications for U.S. Foreign Policy (VIDEO)."

At the Wall Street Journal, "Turkish Instability Threatens to Hamper Battle on Terror":

An attempted military coup in Turkey introduces the prospect of prolonged instability in a key U.S. ally that could undermine one of Washington’s international priorities: the battle against the Islamic State terrorist organization.

Obama administration officials struggled to respond to the unexpected attempt Friday to unseat Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Mr. Erdogan, on vacation when the coup began, returned to Istanbul early on Saturday, and forces supporting him said they were close to putting it down.

But whether successful or not, the coup raises new questions about Mr. Erdogan, who in recent months has shown a greater resolve to confront Islamic State, which is also called Daesh or ISIS.

Amid the race of developments late Friday, the U.S. called for the Turkish public and military to “support the democratically elected government” in the country. But the White House declined to make any further comments on the crisis, suggesting President Barack Obama wanted to keep his options open in Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The U.S. has a major air base in south-central Turkey that it has used to strike Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria.

Washington appeared to be facing two bleak outcomes in Muslim-majority Turkey in the coming month. The military could succeed in overthrowing Mr. Erdogan, resulting in unrest if the leader’s supporters, many of them religious conservatives, take to the streets.

Conversely, Mr. Erdogan could hold on to power but rule in an increasingly paranoid and authoritarian manner. He has increasingly sought control of the major institutions inside Turkey, including the media, judiciary and security forces...

Keep reading.

Time to End the Demonizing of Police

I was wondering when Heather Mac Donald was going to come out with a new commentary piece in light of all the recent anti-police rhetoric and cop-killing leftist violence.

Well, she's got a piece up at the Wall Street Journal, "Two years of corrosive rhetoric about racist cops, based on falsehoods—with disastrous effects":

Such corrosive rhetoric about the nation’s police officers and criminal-justice system is unsettling coming from the president of the United States, but it reflects how thoroughly the misinformation propagated by Black Lives Matter and the media has taken hold. Last month Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, dissenting in a case about police searches, wrote that blacks are “routinely targeted” by law enforcement, adding that “Until their voices matter, too, our justice system will continue to be anything but.”

Hillary Clinton has also taken up this warped cause. On CNN Friday, she decried “systemic” and “implicit bias” in police departments. She also called on “white people” to better understand blacks “who fear every time their children go somewhere.”

Mrs. Clinton ought to take a look at Chicago. Through July 9, 2,090 people have been shot this year, including a 3-year-old boy shot on Father’s Day who will be paralyzed for life, an 11-year-old boy wounded on the Fourth of July, and a 4-year-old boy wounded last week. How many of the 2,090 victims in Chicago were shot by cops? Nine.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump emphasized “law and order” in a video released Friday, saying: “We must stand in solidarity with law enforcement, which we must remember is the force between civilization and total chaos.”

Given the nightmarish events of the past several days, Mr. Trump could do worse than making this presidential campaign one about that line between civilization and anarchy.

RTWT.

And get her book, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

Hillary Clinton Slumps in L.A. Times Daybreak Tracking Poll

The interesting thing is that the Clinton campaign is supposedly bombarding Donald Trump with millions and millions in attack ads, and her numbers are still falling. I'll update with some of the numbers on Hillary's ad campaign, but folks have been pointing it out on Twitter.

Here's LAT, "As Clinton stumbles, Trump takes an apparent slim lead in new tracking poll":

In the new tracking poll, through Thursday night, Trump led Clinton 43% to 40%. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 3 points in either direction, meaning the apparent lead could be the result of chance.

By Friday morning, the poll, which will be updated every day through the election, was showing a decline in Trump’s lead.

The poll shows big gaps along the lines of race, gender, age and education that have surfaced consistently during the campaign. Through Thursday’s results, Trump led among men, 47%  to 36%, while Clinton had a smaller, 41%-34% edge among women. Trump led among voters 45 and older, Clinton among those younger.

Some of Trump’s strongest support comes from white voters who have not graduated from college, among whom he led 53% to 24%. Clinton, by contrast, dominates among minorities, leading 77% to 3% among blacks and 51% to 30% among Latinos.

Clinton also held a narrow edge among white college graduates, 42% to 40%. If she wins that group, Clinton would be the first Democrat to carry white college graduates since polls began asking such demographic questions in the early 1950s.

The poll also offers some support for a prediction that Trump’s backers have made – that he would appeal to disaffected voters who did not cast ballots in 2012.  Those who did not vote that year or voted for a minor-party candidate were more likely to favor Trump than Clinton, the poll indicated.

Although respondents to the poll narrowly favor Trump, they don’t necessarily expect him to win. In a separate question asking people who they think will prevail, Clinton led 53% to 41%.

Research has shown that that question often – although not always – forecasts election results more accurately than asking people their voting intention, particularly months before the vote is counted.

The Daybreak tracking poll differs from traditional polls in two major respects. Rather than questioning a different group of respondents for each poll, the survey relies on a panel, currently consisting of about 3,000 people recruited at random to represent U.S. households.

The panel is part of a larger Understanding America Study conducted by USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research. The election survey is being done in partnership with The Times and USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics.

Because of the panel design, “we have the same people every time, so changes in the poll are really people changing their minds,” rather than the result of variations in who answers a particular survey, said Arie Kapteyn, the director of the USC Dornsife center, who pioneered the approach for the 2012 election while at Rand Corp.

The panel design typically shows less volatility than traditional polls. Four years ago, it proved more accurate than most other surveys in forecasting the election result, although “maybe that was beginner’s luck,” Kapteyn said.

The other major difference is that the poll, using a 1-to-100 scale, asks respondents to say what the chance is that they will vote as well as the chance that they will cast a ballot for Clinton, for Trump or for another candidate. The results are weighted based on those probabilities, so that a voter who is 100% sure of his or her choice has more impact on the forecast than one who is 60% sure.

That approach is one way to resolve “one of the biggest problems that polls have – deciding who is going to vote,” Kapteyn said.

Most polls use several questions to try to determine who is a likely voter and make a forecast based on that, but efforts to predict likely voting are often wrong, particularly far in advance of the election. Employing probabilities means “you get to use all the data,”  Kapteyn said. In theory, that should lead to more reliable results...

Well, we'll see how accurate this is in less than three months.

I'm less skeptical of this poll than some of the others out currently showing Hillary with a "double-digit" lead over Trump. That sounds particularly far-fetched considering events of the last week and a half. There's too much violence, at home and abroad, and people have already been long upset by the gridlock and perceived economic stagnation. Voter anger is the most descriptive term for the times, and now we're adding fear -- real fear -- of more terrorism and political violence in the short term.

I'll have more on these trends later.

But see earlier, "Eight Years After Hope and Change, Voters are Angry, Anxious."

'Surly Misfit' Attack in Nice, France

Here's the unbelievable New York Times, "A Surly Misfit With No Terror Links Turned a Truck Into a Tank."

This surely must be some kind of joke, as I reported earlier, "Leftist Media Whitewashing Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel's Fanatical Islamic Background."

Update your NY Times style guide: Out: Jihadist -- In: Surly misfit https://t.co/MhuHVIz8IL

— Doug Powers (@ThePowersThatBe) July 16, 2016

Mohamed was screaming "Allahu Akbar!", but of course it has nothing to do with Islam.

Actually, a little belated, but the French government is changing its tune. At WaPo, "Attacker in Nice is said to have radicalized ‘very rapidly’":

French official: Attacker in Nice underwent swift radicalization https://t.co/oIhsP1EGXG

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 16, 2016

NICE, France — The Islamic State on Saturday asserted responsibility for an attack that killed 84 people in this coastal French city, according to the organization’s news agency, as France’s interior minister announced for the first time that investigators think the attacker had been “radicalized.”

It remains unclear whether the militant group directed the attack, was taking responsibility for an assault it inspired or was simply seeking publicity from an event in which it had no direct hand.

“It seems” that the attacker, Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, 31, “radicalized his views very rapidly. These are the first elements that our investigation has come up with through interviews with his acquaintances,” Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Saturday, without offering details. Five people have been detained for questioning in the case.

“We are now facing individuals who are responding positively to the messages issued by the Islamic State without having had any special training and without having access to weapons that allow them to commit mass murder,” Cazeneuve said.

The Amaq news agency, which is linked to the Islamic State, cited an “insider source” in declaring that Bouhlel “was a soldier of the Islamic State.”

“He executed the operation in response to calls to target citizens of coalition nations that fight the Islamic State,” the news agency wrote.

Separately, the Islamic State’s al-Bayan radio station said Bouhlel used “a new tactic” to wreak havoc. “The crusader countries know that no matter how much they enforce their security measures and procedures, it will not stop the mujahideen from striking,” the station said.

But the oblique claim of responsibility left open the question of whether Bouhlel had acted alone or had any prior communication with the group, which has also claimed ties to the attacks that struck Paris twice last year and Brussels in March. French authorities have been scrambling to determine whether Bouhlel had a support network in Nice, where he appears to have been living for at least six years...

More.

It doesn't matter if Bouhlel had direct contact. He was sucking up Islamic State propaganda and jihad exhortations, and decided to go with what he knew.

Robert Spencer has more, at FrontPage Magazine, "Muslims Celebrate Bastille Day":

Muslims Celebrate #BastilleDay: 80 Dead, 68; “The worst tragedy in the history of Nice” – but many more are to come https://t.co/siorbmNeS9

— Jewhadi™ (@JewhadiTM) July 15, 2016

Jihadis have had their eyes on France for quite some time. The Islamic State issued this call in September 2014:

So O muwahhid, do not let this battle pass you by wherever you may be. You must strike the soldiers, patrons, and troops of the tawaghit. Strike their police, security, and intelligence members, as well as their treacherous agents. Destroy their beds. Embitter their lives for them and busy them with themselves. If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be….If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman, or any of their allies. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him…

Yes, “run him over with your car.”

Then again from the Islamic State in May 2016:

“The French must die by the thousands…. Towards paradise, that is the path….Come, brother, let’s go to paradise, our women are waiting for us there, with angels as servants. You will have a palace, a winged horse of gold and rubies….With a little rocket-launcher, you can easily get one of them… you do something like that in the name of Dawla (Islamic State), and France will be traumatised for a century.”

The French are already traumatized. The BBC reported last week that “more than 5,000 French police will be deployed at key venues in and around Paris ahead of the Euro 2016 football final between France and Portugal,” and that “there will be no victory parade if France win.” Why not? For fear of jihad terror attacks.

The Bastille Day jihad massacre demonstrates that the answer to jihad attacks is not to curtail one’s activities and cower in fear. Even if free people do that, the jihadis will strike anyway. Even without a victory parade, the jihadis struck yet again in France. The response should not be to cower in fear, but to recognize that this is a war and act accordingly. France has just suffered a fresh attack in a war that is being fought by people in service of an ideology that France, like other Western countries, refuses to acknowledge even exists.

France, even as it is under serious attack by the warriors of jihad, continues to pursue policies that will only result in the arrival of still more Muslims to France – and with them will come jihad terrorists, and many, many more jihad massacres like the one on Bastille Day in Nice. French curtailing their activities for fear of being struck by jihadis did not save them. The Bastille Day jihad attack should be the last to take place under the regime of politically correct fantasy that forces law enforcement and intelligence officials to pretend that the threat is other than what it is, and that the remedy is to apply, one more time, policies that have failed again and again and again.

Bastille Day should be a day for the releasing of prisoners. In the war against the global jihad, the truth has been prisoner for too long. It is time to set it free – before it, too, becomes irrevocably a casualty of this war against an enemy no one dares name...

Leftist Media Report 'Truck Attack' on Bastille Day Revellers in Nice, France

Even after reports indicated that the truck driver was an Islamic jihadist, we were still seeing headlines and chyrons reporting that "a truck plowed down" dozens of people celebrating Bastille Day in Nice.

It was frankly infuriating.

Michelle Malkin first tweeted, then I seconded that emotion the next day. But thank goodness for Australia's Daily Telegraph. Compare that awesome front-page cover for today's newspaper to the New York Times' front-page on Friday.

We're in for some tough times ahead. Brutal, bloody though times ahead. Here's hoping someone in France decides to genuinely crack down in the Islamic terror network there. It's not too late, although many others have tweeted that France is history.

At least 60 dead after truck crashes into crowd in Nice, France. Police have called it a terror attack https://t.co/eJd4h6XZtf

— TIME.com (@TIME) July 14, 2016

A *truck* didn't crash into the crowd at Nice. A *terrorist driving a truck* crashed into the innocents. #nice https://t.co/V7HpGf3GAH

— Michelle Malkin (@michellemalkin) July 14, 2016

Public service announcement to the U.S. media: A "truck" didn't slam into a crowd in #Nice. An Islamic jihadist driving a truck did. #ISLAM

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) July 15, 2016

Tomorrow's @dailytelegraph front page... pic.twitter.com/8eNHt9KJhk

— Dave Meddows (@davemeddows) July 15, 2016

The front page of The New York Times for Friday, July 15, 2016 pic.twitter.com/MMbqVANu7X

— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 15, 2016

Terror in Europe Becoming the New Normal

At Blazing Cat Fur:

Canadians are shocked by tonight's attack in Nice. Our sympathy is with the victims, and our solidarity with the French people.

— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) July 14, 2016

No, we're not shocked at all, this is the new normal https://t.co/ujrufmiDad

— Blazing CatFur (@Blazingcatfur) July 14, 2016

“…In a tweet following the latest devastation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tweeted “Canadians are shocked by tonight’s attack in Nice.”

Really? We’re feeling and thinking many things. But given what we know about the state of the world today, shocked is pretty low down the list.”

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for #Nice Jihad Terror Attack (VIDEO)

At WSJ, "Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Attack in Nice":

Islamic State on Saturday claimed responsibility for the deadly truck attack in the French city of Nice, saying the assault was a response to calls by the extremist group to target those nations allied against it.

Despite the assertion of responsibility, the nature and scope of the Sunni Muslim extremist group’s involvement in Thursday’s attack, which killed 84 people and wounded scores more, was unclear.

French authorities said Saturday they had found no evidence of ties between terror groups and the man who carried out the assault in Nice, Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, a 31-year-old Tunisian man living in the city. Prosecutors also said they had little doubt the militant group had, at the very least, inspired the attack.

In its statement Saturday quoting an unidentified security source and carried by its affiliated Amaq news agency, the Sunni Muslim extremist group said, the Bastille Day attack “was carried out by one of the soldiers of the Islamic State, and the operation was done in response to calls to target nations of coalition states that are fighting the Islamic State.”

The statement was reported by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors extremist activity.

France is one of 66 participants in the U.S.-led military coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, according to the U.S. State Department. U.S. President Barack Obama announced the formation of the coalition in September 2014.

On the internet and social media, supporters of Islamic State cheered the truck attack by Lahouaiej Bouhlel, but as in some previous claims of responsibility by the militant group, no clear link to the group has been established.

U.S. and European officials were running checks on financial, social media and internet communication networks to try to determine whether Lahouaiej Bouhlel had accomplices or received foreign support...

Keep reading.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Looks to Restore Control After Attempted Coup in Turkey (VIDEO)

Here's my post from last night, "Agence France-Presse Updates on Coup Attempt in Turkey."

Events were moving very quickly. Shortly after I posted it looked like Erdoğan was bringing things back in control. He flew into Istanbul's airport and went on television for a national address.

The nation's capital is in Ankara, however, so it remains to be seen if Erdoğan's restored control at the government traditional seat of power.

At the New York Times, "Turkey Detains Thousands of Military Personnel After Attempted Coup: 265 Killed and Many More Wounded as Factions Clash":

ISTANBUL — Turkey’s government rounded up thousands of military personnel on Saturday who were said to have taken part in an attempted coup, moving swiftly to re-establish control after a night of chaos and intrigue that left hundreds dead.

By noon, there were few signs that those who had taken part in the coup attempt were still able to challenge the government, and many declared the uprising a failure.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim called the insurrection “a stain in the history of democracy” at a news conference on Saturday in Ankara, the capital. He raised the death toll in the clashes to 265, with 1,440 people wounded, and he said 2,839 military personnel had been detained.

As the insurrection unfolded Friday night, beginning with the seizing of two bridges in Istanbul by military forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not heard from for hours. He finally addressed the nation from an undisclosed location, speaking on his cellphone’s FaceTime app — a dramatic scene that seemed to suggest a man on the verge of losing power. But in the early hours of Saturday, he landed in Istanbul, a strong sign that the coup was failing.

Mr. Erdogan placed blame for the intrigue on the followers of Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim cleric living in exile in Pennsylvania, who was the president’s ally until a bitter falling out three years ago. Mr. Gulen’s followers were known to have a strong presence in Turkey’s police and judiciary, but less so in the military.

On Saturday morning, Mr. Erdogan said, referring to Mr. Gulen, “I have a message for Pennsylvania: You have engaged in enough treason against this nation. If you dare, come back to your country.”

In a statement released on the website of his group, Alliance for Shared Values, Mr. Gulen condemned the coup and supported the country’s democratic process.

“As someone who suffered under multiple military coups during the past five decades, it is especially insulting to be accused of having any link to such an attempt,” Mr. Gulen wrote. “I categorically deny such accusations.”

Mr. Erdogan also said that Turkish fighter jets had bombed tanks on the streets of Ankara, and that a military helicopter being used by the coup plotters had been shot down.

There was also a battle early Saturday at Turkey’s main intelligence headquarters in Ankara, which government forces later secured, and a Turkish official said the intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, had been taken to a secure location.

In a news conference on Saturday, Turkey’s top military officer, Gen. Umit Dundar, the acting head of the general staff, said that “the coup attempt was rejected by the chain of command immediately.”

More.

Slinky Blue Bikini Barely Contains the Amazing Devin Brugman

Truly Amazing.

At Egotastic!, "Devin Brugman is Barely Contained in a Blue Bikini."

This is definitely the life, heh.

The amazing Devin Brugman@devinbrugman pic.twitter.com/LczJ8chNkL

— Celeb Lover (@celeblover8) July 15, 2016

Let swim week begin!!! 👙 @whitneykaye_ @abikiniaday @mondayswimwear #miamiswimweek pic.twitter.com/GJzFJlduaN

— Devin Brugman (@devinbrugman) July 15, 2016