Clinton May Push Past Texas and Ohio

Although polls show that Hillary Clinton has little Democratic voter backing for a push past today's decisive voting (in the event of substantial losses), the Clinton camp has a number of scenarios that might keep the New York Senator in the running.

The Wall Street Journal has the story:

Hillary Clinton faces the judgment of Texas and Ohio voters today in what she and her backers have declared "must win" contests, following 11 straight losses to Barack Obama. The big question: What constitutes a "win"?

If the New York senator gets large majorities of the popular vote in both states, she will clearly keep fighting for the Democratic nomination, at least until the next major primary in Pennsylvania on April 22. If she loses both, she will face tremendous pressure to drop out of the race.

The latest polls suggest, however, that the outcome is likely to be muddier than either of those scenarios. The surveys show Sen. Clinton with a solid, even expanding, lead in Ohio. In Texas, two polls released yesterday, show Sen. Obama with a slight lead, while a third puts Sen. Clinton somewhat ahead. Texas's results will be complicated by separate caucuses held after the primary polls close. Sen. Obama is favored to win the caucuses even if he loses the primary.

Should the senators split the states' contests -- or if Sen. Clinton wins, but only by narrow margins -- the debate will turn to how to interpret the results. Two smaller states, Rhode Island and Vermont, also vote today. Clinton aides have started to imply that even just one big win today would allow her to claim she had broken Sen. Obama's momentum, justifying a continuing competition.

If the outcomes are as close as polls suggest, Sen. Clinton won't be able to cut into Sen. Obama's lead in delegates to the Democrats' August nominating convention. The more likely net result from the four states is that his edge will grow. The Illinois senator currently is ahead with 1,386 delegates to 1,276 for Sen. Clinton, as calculated by the Associated Press. A candidate needs 2,025 to secure the nomination.

It is possible Clinton could win, depending on turnout, the accuracy of polling predictions, and the potential electoral fallout to Obama from the last minute scrutiny he's received in the press.

See also, "Stay or Go? Results Today Dictate Clinton's Future."