On the Matter of Candidate Experience (Does it Matter?)

Does experience matter in voter decision-making on presidential choice? It doesn't seem to be the biggest deal at the moment, with all the rage over Barack Obama.

Time 's cover story this week asks: "Does Experience Matter in a President?"

A story is often told at times like this — times when American voters are choosing among candidates richly seasoned with political experience and those who are less experienced but perhaps more exciting alternatives. Once upon a time, the torch was passed to a new generation of Americans, and a charismatic young President, gifted as a speechmaker but little tested as an executive, was finding his way through his first 100 days. On Day 85, he stumbled, and the result for John F. Kennedy was the disastrous Bay of Pigs.

For scholars of the presidency, Kennedy's failure to scuttle or fix the ill-conceived invasion of Cuba is a classic case of the insufficiency of charisma alone. No quips, grins or flights of rhetoric would do. Kennedy needed on-the-job training, as he later admitted to a friend: "Presumably, I was going to learn these lessons sometime, and maybe better sooner than later." Unfortunately, when a President gets an education, we all pay the tuition.

Barack Obama basks in comparisons to J.F.K., but this is one he'd rather avoid. In the run-up to what could be the decisive contests for the Democratic nomination, Obama's relatively light political résumé — eight years as an Illinois legislator and three years in the U.S. Senate — continues to be the focus of his rivals' attacks. Hillary Clinton advertises her seven years in the Senate and two terms as First Lady, saying "I am ready to lead on Day One." And the message has gotten through: by clear margins, voters rate her as the more experienced of the two candidates. The fact that this hasn't stopped Obama's momentum doesn't mean he's heard the last of it — not with John McCain, who has spent 26 years on Capitol Hill, the likely Republican nominee. "I'm not the youngest candidate. But I am the most experienced," says McCain. "I know how the world works."

That's seems like a pretty good introduction to the matter.

Bill Clinton's administration - staffed by what many saw as aloof, unbuttoned-down recent college grads - could also have used a good dose of experience early on, which might have helped the Clinton White House avoid monumental political battles over issues such as "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the health reform initative's "Harry and Louise" episode.

But check out Daniel Drezner 's piece, "Expecting the Unexpected as President":

As Barack Obama surges ahead in delegates and pubic-opinion polls, Hillary Clinton stresses her 35 years of experience as having prepared her to be the commander-in-chief from day one. This raises an interesting question: What is the best experience to become the leader of the Free World?

The answer is hazy. Some people believe the executive branch should be run like a business. George W. Bush's MBA, however, does not appear to have imbued him with superior management skills. Businessmen like Mitt Romney, Steve Forbes and Ross Perot all excelled in the private sector. But all of them spent great sums of money in their presidential campaigns, with little to show for it.

Senator Clinton seems to suggest that decades of experience in the capital represents the best training for the presidency. Well, maybe -- Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush were the modern presidents with the longest Washington resumes. Each had their moments, but none of them left the Oval Office gracefully. Washington insiders often rack up accomplishments, but at the same time they possess massive blind spots that cripple their presidencies.

Pundits suggest that managing a successful presidential campaign is the best preparation for the Oval Office. This idea is a seductive but tautological. In 2004, experts said Howard Dean was running a brilliant campaign -- until he started losing. Politics is too capricious a business to assume that candidates can control their destiny through superior planning.

As a management question, the problem with being the president is that one cannot anticipate what important issues will arise in the future. No one thought terrorism would be the paramount foreign policy problem during the 2000 campaign. I guarantee you there are issues that will not be talked about during this election year, but will dominate the presidency in 2009 and beyond.

Perhaps the best experience to be president, then, is the ability to successfully cope with the uncertain and the unknown. Of course, some managerial experts would not call that "experience." They would call it "judgment."

Well said.

But back to Time's article. While there are plenty of examples of inexperienced presidents making poor decisions or initiating policies they'd like to take back, there are also examples of great presidents who've blundered.

Certainly crisis decision-making calls for sound judgment and judicious action, like, well, Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Frankly, I would add that in political science and presidential studies there's something known as "the force of circumstance," which means that sometimes presidents are successful when decisions are made in the context of a special set of environmental factors - like an overwhelming problem that gives added weight to presidential leadership, or a decisive election victory that provides the political-institutional momentum for presidential success on some fundamental question of national concern.

Of course, much of this debate centers on leadership in times of danger, and, utlimately, few people have genuinely been challenged in a true trial by fire. Thus, when we recognize great presidential leadership, it's generally when an incumbent has met the test of judgment and leadership at a moment involving the highest stakes of politics and history.