Monday, August 13, 2012

New Zogby Poll: 'The Ryan Effect'

See Newsmax, "John Zogby Poll: Ryan Gives Romney Big Push in Swing States, Independents."
Mitt Romney’s campaign has gotten a decisive bump upwards with the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, a new poll by JZ Analytics reveals.

The poll — the first survey conducted after Romney announced Ryan as his vice presidential choice — shows the Romney/Ryan ticket tied with Obama/Biden at 46 percent.

But a JZ Analytics poll from a few weeks ago had Obama leading Romney by 5 percentage points, and most major polls also had Obama comfortably in the lead before the Ryan selection.
Continue reading.

And see Nice Deb, "The Ryan Bump: New Zogby Poll Shows Huge Boost for Romney in Swing States."

Zogby finds 45.2 percent of independents back #RomneyRyan, compared to 40.1 for Obama/Biden. But the methodology doesn't indicate how swing states were sampled. See: "Methodology, JZ Analytics Poll of Likely Voters in United States, 8/11/12 thru 8/12/12." And the summary is here: "New JZ Analytics Telephone Poll: 'The Ryan Effect'."

I take Zogby's polling with a bigger grain of salt than usual. He's basically a leftist pollster with some credibility problems. The methods look pretty good but I'm not sure if he randomly sampled folks in swing states, and there's no cross-tabs at the links.

That said, here's Rasmussen, "Presidential Tracking Poll":
Monday, August 13, 2012 -- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Data available to Platinum Members shows that Romney does a bit better when leaners are included....

These results are based upon interviews conducted nightly and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, two-thirds of the interviews conducted for today’s update were completed after it was announced that Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan will be Romney’s vice presidential running mate. The announcement so far has had little impact on the numbers. See tracking history.
And Gallup's presidential election tracking poll shows the campaign tied up at 46 percent through August 12th, "Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney."

It's going to take a few more days of polling to really get a feel for Ryan's impact, although Gallup also reports that the response to Ryan is historically low for veep selections, "Reaction to Ryan as VP Pick Among Least Positive Historically: But Republicans more OK with Ryan compared with past vice presidential candidates."

More on this later...