Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: GOP Has Roughly 50-50 Shot to Gain Six Seats Needed to Retake Senate

Sabato et al. aren't quite as optimistic for GOP chances as Sean Trende, but if you're a Democrat, there's little upside.

See, "Senate 2014: A Coin-Flip":

Just look at Map 1. We now favor Republicans in four Democratic-held seats: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, as well as — in a ratings change — Arkansas, where Sen. Mark Pryor (D) appears to be at least a slight underdog to Rep. Tom Cotton (R) in a reddening state. Assuming Republicans can win those, they have roughly even odds to win in three other states where there are Democratic incumbents: Alaska, which we’ve long classified as a Toss-up, and Louisiana and North Carolina, which we’re switching back to Toss-ups after having them in that category for much of last year. It’s possible that the race for the Senate will come down to these three Toss-ups, with the party that wins at least two of the three controlling the Senate. And that doesn’t even mention the lower-tier races in lighter shades of Red and Blue that adorn the map below, most of which are currently held by Democrats.

Be sure to read it all at the link.