The Weekly Standard has it, "New York Times/CBS Poll: Romney 47, Obama 46."
And from the Times, "Poll Shows Economic Fears Undercutting Obama Support" (via Memeorandum):
Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.Continue reading.
Despite months of negative advertising from Mr. Obama and his Democratic allies seeking to define Mr. Romney as out of touch with the middle class and representative of wealthy interests, the poll shows little evidence of any substantial nationwide shift in attitudes about Mr. Romney.
But with job growth tailing off since spring and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, wondering aloud whether the labor market is “stuck in the mud,” the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved.
In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to be gaining momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.
For all of the Washington chatter that Mr. Romney’s campaign has seemed off-kilter amid attacks on his tenure at Bain Capital and his unwillingness to release more of his tax returns, the poll shows that the race remains essentially tied, with 45 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Romney if the election were held now and 43 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Obama.
Including voters who lean toward a particular candidate, Mr. Romney has 47 percent to Mr. Obama’s 46 percent.
And the raw data are here, "Results of The New York Times/CBS Poll."
Nearly two-thirds of respondents say the country's on the wrong track (64 percent). Fourty-four percent approve of Obama's job performance, and just 39 percent approve of the president's economic performance (55 percent disapprove). Seventy-three percent think the economy is fairly bad (39 percent) or very bad (32 percent). All of this is bad for Obama, as incumbents whose public approval numbers fall below 50 percent are not reelected.
Historically, the best predictor of a president’s re-election chances has been approval rating. Since World War II, every president with an approval rating at least a few points above 50 percent has won re-election. Every president with a rating clearly below 50 percent has lost.That said, these are national polling numbers, and the election's going to come down to the decisions across a few battleground states. While the Times survey has some danger warnings for Romney, the race is essentially tied. As always, the trick will be for Romney to deflect the left's unscrupulous smears and regain the narrative.
RELATED: At the Washington Times, "In Ohio, fired-up Romney pledges to 'fight for soul of America'."