#GOP Senate Prospects Brighten: Strong Candidates, Obama's Sagging Approval Expand Party's Map

At the Wall Street Journal, "Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority" (via Google):

With 100 days to go until the midterm election, unexpectedly strong bids by several Republican candidates and President Barack Obama's continued sagging approval ratings are boosting GOP chances of capturing a Senate majority.

A battery of recent polling shows Republican candidates mounting competitive bids for at least 10 Senate seats now held by Democrats, including in Iowa and Colorado, states that have been leaning Democratic in recent years. Many Republican candidates have narrowed their opponents' fundraising advantage, according to the latest campaign-finance reports. And a series of international crises has dealt the president some of the lowest approval marks of his second term, weighing on his party's candidates.

"A lot of times, a party has to run an inside-straight to win the majority," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report who handicaps congressional campaigns. "Instead of having five cards in their hand, the Republicans have about 10."

The GOP needs a net gain of six seats for a majority in the Senate, which now has 55 Democrats and allied independents. Republicans have long been expected to contest seven Democratic-held seats in states that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. But now the GOP is also waging solid campaigns in at least three states that backed Mr. Obama.

Still, Democratic incumbents have remained resilient after weathering millions of dollars in negative advertising. North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan, for example, holds a narrow lead in publicly available polling after absorbing $18 million in negative ads, far more than the amount spent on ads supporting her, her campaign said. Democratic prospects also are making serious bids for Republican seats in Georgia and Kentucky, the only two GOP-held seats that are thought to be possible Democratic pickups this year.

But Republicans are favored to win Democratic seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, and GOP challengers are pushing incumbent Democrats to the brink in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana, as well as North Carolina. Races for Democratic seats in Colorado and Iowa are now genuine tossups, with some analysts saying the same of Michigan.

This year's map clearly favors the GOP even as Democrats continue to lead on the question of which party Americans would rather see control Congress, according to a compilation of polls by the website Real Clear Politics. The Republican Party also remains far less popular than the president or the Democratic Party, public-opinion surveys show, particularly among women.

But Republicans this year are betting on an anti-Obama message, linking Democratic candidates to a president who is unpopular in many of the battleground states. Democrats, meanwhile, are doing what incumbents typically do when facing a negative election environment: building campaigns around local issues and reminding voters of all the things they do in Washington to help people back home.

Republicans have been here before. In each of the past two elections, the party failed to capitalize on a favorable map to recapture the majority. And to win this year, Republicans would likely have to do something the party hasn't done since 1980: beat more than two incumbents.

Sitting Democratic senators in the four most competitive battlegrounds—Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina—remain at risk but carry financial advantages and, in three cases, family names that are identified with long service to the state. Polls show close contests in each race, and all four Democrats ended June with more money in their campaign accounts than the Republicans running against them, according to Federal Election Commission data.

"All of these red-state Democrats knew they would have difficult campaigns. They've prepared for difficult campaigns, and they're all experienced politicians," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who is working for Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu. "They all have a path to win."

By the end of June, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had raised $25 million more than its Republican counterpart, allowing the committee to spend freely on television ads and turnout opeartions. Democrats in seven of the 10 most competitive races also ended June with more money than their Republican rivals.

But the edge is diminishing in some states. In Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is defending his seat, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner trails in cash on hand by $2.3 million, according to campaign-finance reports. That gap is smaller than the $3.8 million lead that Mr. Udall held at the end of March.

There's a great graphic at the click through.

It think they'll do it. Republicans will take the Senate. They'll at least get the six seats needed for the majority. And if current events continue to dog the president, I expect they'll get more than that. The only bummer here is that Kay Hagan's looking stronger than I'd hoped for, but what can you do? It's gonna be good.

PREVIOUSLY: "Odds of a GOP Wave."