The Mechanics of the Iowa Caucuses

The caucuses are even more complicated than this piece indicates, at the Wall Street Journal, "Iowa Caucuses: How Do They Work?"

Years ago, when I was still at UCSB, I used to assign Elaine Kamarck's research. She's at Harvard Kennedy School, and according to her bio there, "In the 1980s, she was one of the founders of the New Democrat movement that helped elect Bill Clinton president." And she's an expert on the party nomination process. Here's her new book, Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.

More here, "First in the nation: The all-important early states of Iowa and New Hampshire."

She's on Twitter as well, heh.

Jackie Johnson's Weather Forecast for Thursday

I dropped my kid off at school and picked up a cup of coffee at 7/11, and that's about it.

I've been blogging the Malheur arrests almost non-stop since yesterday around dinner time. I slept this afternoon for a couple hours, after the news settled down a bit with the press conference and the arraignments in Portland.

In any case, I haven't sampled the weather much today, although it was mild out compared to yesterday.

And with that, here's Jackie with tomorrow's preview:

Witness Raymond Doherty Tells Portland's KOIN 6 News There Was 'Lot of Shooting Going On' During Bundy Militia Arrest (VIDEO)

Watch:



And ICYMI, "WATCH: Exclusive Video Shows Shots Fired in Ammon Bundy Traffic Stop Outside Burns, Oregon."

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Statement on the Occasion of International Holocaust Remembrance Day (VIDEO)

Just having him in office over there makes me feel a little better.

But our election's coming, and I'm confident that the change we have this time's going to be for the better.

Militia Leader Ammon Bundy Urges Occupiers to Leave Malheur Refuge (VIDEO)

At USA Today, "Ammon Bundy urges protesters to leave refuge":

BURNS, Ore. — Oregon militia leader Ammon Bundy is urging his followers at a wildlife refuge near Burns, Ore., to leave, according to a statement released by his attorney.

Bundy's lawyer, Mike Arnold, read a statement by Bundy, arrested Tuesday, on the steps of a courthouse in Portland.

"Right now, I am asking the federal government to allow the people at the refuge to go home without being prosecuted," the statement read. "To those remaining at the refuge, I love you. Let us take this fight from here. Please stand down. Go home and hug your families. This fight is ours for now in the courts. Please go home."

The statement also paid tribute to Lavoy Finnicum, the protester who died on Tuesday, as federal and state authorities arrested Bundy and seven more at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. Bundy and the protesters had holed up there since Jan. 2. Authorities said the arrests came after futile efforts to end the standoff peacefully for 25 days.

Bundy's reported request came after mounting pressure from authorities for the protesters to abandon the site.

"They have chosen to threaten and intimidate the America they profess to love and through their criminal actions bring these consequences upon themselves," said Greg Bretzing, FBI special agent in charge, said earlier Wednesday.

In a particularly emotional statement before reporters, Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward spoke directly to the remaining half-dozen holdouts at the refuge.

"It is time for everybody in this illegal occupation to move on," Ward said, stopping periodically to regain his composure. "There doesn't have to be bloodshed in our community. (When) we have issues with the way things are in our government, we have a responsibility as citizens to act on them in an appropriate manner. We don't arm up, we don't rebel. We work through the appropriate channels. This can't happen anymore, this can't happen in America, and it can't happen in Harney County."

The brief statements by the FBI, sheriff and federal prosecutor came one day after law enforcement officers stopped a group of the protesters at a roadblock about 20 miles north of the refuge.

Arizona resident Robert "LaVoy" Finicum, 56, the soft-spoken but defiant co-leader of the protest group victim, was shot and killed. Officials refused to provide details, but his identity was confirmed by his family and reported by The Oregonian and NBC News.

Meanwhile, several members of a self-styled militia continued to defy authorities and maintain their occupation of the federal facility...

Still more.

And at the Portland Oregonian, "Ammon Bundy, via attorney, tells refuge militants to go home."

Official Statement from Pacific Patriots Network on Arrests of the Bundy Militiamen

This following-up from a couple of weeks ago, "Pacific Patriot Network Opposes #Malheur Occupation, Issues Call for Peaceful Resolution of Standoff (VIDEO)."

Here's the group's statement, "Pacific Patriots Network - Official Statement for Immediate Release":

On January 26, 2016, Ammon Bundy Ryan Bundy, Shawna Cox, Brian Cavalier, Ryan Payne and LaVoy Finicum were involved in a traffic stop between the town of Burns and John Day, Oregon. They were on their way to a meeting with local ranchers. Ammon Bundy, as well as the passengers of his vehicle were stopped, arrested, and taken into federal custody by the FBI. We can confirm that one man has been shot and taken to the local hospital and that another was shot and killed. We can also confirm that separate from the traffic stop, both Joe O'Shaugnessy and Pete Santilli were also arrested and taken into custody.

It has come to the attention of PPN that many individuals are responding to this news as a ‘Call to Action’. The Pacific Patriots Network is issuing an immediate “STAND BY” Order to all those who are mobilizing to the peaceful city of Burns, Oregon. We will not pursue any action until all of the facts have been pieced together regarding the traffic stop and the arrest of Ammon Bundy. During this time, cooler heads must prevail. We do not wish to inflame the current situation and will engage in open dialogue until all of the facts have been gathered.

Again, we must reiterate the current standing order. No mobilization of any kind is to take place until every piece of speculation and hearsay have been verified or dismissed...

Via Memeorandum.

Remaining Malheur Militimen Broadcast Siege from Inside Wildlife Refuge (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Ammon Bundy Militiamen Make Appearance in U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon."

At the Portland Oregonian, "Live: Remaining occupiers broadcast from inside Malheur National Wildlife Refuge":

After eight leaders of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge occupation were arrested Tuesday and spokesperson Robert "LaVoy" Finicum was killed, the remaining occupiers are still holding their ground.

They somehow have maintained enough Internet bandwidth to continue streaming video from inside the 187,000-acre refuge, located 30 miles south of Burns, Oregon in remote Harney County.

In one segment of a live broadcast that clearly appears to have been made within the refuge Tuesday morning, at least three armed occupiers kept watch for law enforcement.

"They're coming to kill us," one said into the camera as hundreds watched and commented on the YouTube stream...

Yes, ICYMI, "'They're Going to Murder All of Us!' — #Malheur Occupiers Livestream Siege at Wildlife Refuge (VIDEO)."

The livestream video is here, active as of 1:30pm Pacific, "The Watchman News 01/27/2016 - Burns Oregon Standoff Live Video from Inside the Refuge."

Ammon Bundy Militiamen Make Appearance in U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon

Shawna Cox is a woman, but I'm keeping the "militiamen" moniker I've got going, lol.

At KOIN News 6 Portland, "Bundy, militia in court: What to expect: Militia took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge on Jan. 2, 2016."

Ammon Bundy and six others will be led into U.S. Mag. Judge Stacie F. Beckerman's courtroom on fed. conspiracy charges #Oregonstandoff

— Maxine Bernstein (@maxoregonian) January 27, 2016

UPDATE: At the Oregonian, "Ammon Bundy and other Oregon standoff leaders appear in court in Portland."

Emily DiDonato, Erin Heatherton, and Irina Shayk Back for Sports Illustrated Swimsuit 2016

Well, here's the big tease the editors were promoting.

.@theirishayk, @ErinHeatherton and @emilydidonato1 are back for #SISwim 2016! https://t.co/ZfwD16nZAq pic.twitter.com/nEJ3d64QWB

— SI Swimsuit (@SI_Swimsuit) January 27, 2016

PREVIOUSLY: "Kate's Tiny Bikinis — Sports Illustrated Swimsuit (VIDEO)."

LeVoy Finicum Preached a 'Cowboy's Stand for Freedom' (VIDEO)

He went out blazing, in all the ways that one can go out blazing.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Man killed in Oregon standoff had preached what he called a 'cowboy's stand for freedom'":

Where some activists at an occupied federal wildlife refuge preached rowdyism and brimstone, Robert “LaVoy” Finicum was wistful, almost sad.

Bedecked in his trademark earmuffs and cowboy hat, the Arizona rancher would wonder aloud with a shake of his head why reporters couldn’t simply see the rightness of his position: that the federal government was illegally possessing land it had no right to take.

He insisted he and the other occupiers were helping the people of Harney County, Oregon. He often carried a handgun at his side and sometimes set up watch with a long gun across his lap.

He maintained a blog — “One Cowboy’s stand for Freedom” — in which he posted videos of himself denouncing the federal government and demanding that federal land be turned over to local authorities and private ranchers. He also wrote a novel, a post-apocalyptic Western thriller called "Only By Blood and Suffering."

Finicum, 55, was killed Tuesday night by an Oregon State Police trooper during an altercation between authorities and some who had occupied the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. About 20 occupiers have squatted for three weeks while they protested the incarceration of a father-and-son pair of ranchers and demanded federal agencies leave the land to local authorities and landowners.

The exact circumstances of the altercation between occupiers and authorities have not yet been released. "My dad was such a good good man, through and through," Arianna Finicum Brown, 26, one of Finicum's 11 children, told The Oregonian newspaper Tuesday. "He would never ever want to hurt somebody, but he does believe in defending freedom and he knew the risks involved."

When speaking to the media or the public, Ammon Bundy, putative leader of the activists, was gruff and dismissive. Jon Ritzheimer, a Phoenix-area anti-Muslim activist arrested Tuesday, would stay silent for long stretches before exploding in anger. But Finicum kept his cool.

“I can point to the page, here,” Finicum told the Los Angeles Times during the second week of the occupation, holding aloft a pocket Constitution. “I can tell you where to look if you want to see why we’re here.

“You say we’re breaking things up. [But] we’re keeping something together here.”

Finicum often served as a spokesman for the group, reading statements into cameras and then chatting with reporters when the cameras were off. He told reporters that the occupiers were going through federal files looking  for proof of federal malfeasance.

One day with reporters watching, he scaled a ladder to the top of a telephone pole to remove a camera lens. He later held it up for reporters, saying it had been placed by the FBI to monitor the occupiers.

Finicum was, for most of his life, a rancher who paid his grazing fees to the federal government...

Still more.

Bernie Sanders Meets with President Obama at the White House

Heh.

The Democrat-Socialists had to coordinate talking points before the Iowa caucuses.

At PuffHo, "Obama meets with Bernie Sanders at the White House."



Image Credit: Woodsterman.

News Conference on Occupation of #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)

Following-up, "'They're Going to Murder All of Us!' — #Malheur Occupiers Livestream Siege at Wildlife Refuge (VIDEO)."

Here's the Portland Oregonian, "Oregon standoff news conference: FBI says occupiers had 'ample' time to leave."

And watch, via CNN:



I'll post updates throughout the day (and pray that this standoff ends peacefully).

'They're Going to Murder All of Us!' — #Malheur Occupiers Livestream Siege at Wildlife Refuge (VIDEO)

That was an extremely tight-lipped press conference. The FBI, U.S. Attorney Bill Williams, and Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward all spoke, but none took questions.

Here's the reported tweeted from KOIN News 6 Portland, "FBI: Militia occupiers still at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge given ample time to leave," and "U.S. Atty: Numerous law enforcement working together to 'stop the threats'."

Also, "Harney Sheriff: Those arrested 'gave me ultimatums I could not meet'"; "Harney Sheriff: 'This has been tearing our community apart'"; and "Harney Sheriff: 'We don't arm up and rebel. This can't happen anymore'."

In any case, I'll bet authorities are going back out to the refuge to bring this standoff to and end, by any means necessary.

Here's the occupiers' livestream highlights from the Portland Oregonian:



I'll have updates shortly.

Mammoth Bones Discovered at Oregon State University (VIDEO)

Heh.

Not something you find everyday.

Watch, at the Portland Oregonian, "Mammoth bones uncovered at Oregon State University."

U.S. Representative Greg Walden (R): 'Our Hopes Were Shattered' With the Shooting Last Night

From KOIN's Jennifer Dowling, "Walden: Sadly, our hopes were shattered with the shooting that occurred during last night's arrest."

The congressman's been speaking out on the siege. See the Portland Oregonian, "Highlights from Rep. Greg Walden’s tearful, angry speech to U.S. House about Oregon standoff (VIDEO)."

The Malheur press conference has been pushed back to 11:00am, perhaps to give LEOs more time to negotiate the occupiers' exit from the refuge.

Expect updates...

And ICYMI, "FBI Surrounds #Malheur Wildlife Refuge — Media Crews Told to Leave #OregonStandoff."

FBI Surrounds #Malheur Wildlife Refuge — Media Crews Told to Leave #OregonStandoff

Just now, at KOIN News 6 Portland, "FBI surrounds Malheur refuge, militia not leaving."

John Sepulvado tweeted earlier, "@OPB was told by FBI that we were on our own -- essentially stuff is going down and we need to move."

And from Andrew Dymburt:

The @FBI is advising journalists to leave now. Could be gearing up for a move on #Malheur keep it locked to @KOINNews for updates

— Andrew Dymburt (@DymburtNews) January 27, 2016

UPDATE: Welcome Instapundit readers.

Today's joint press conference concluded moments ago. The FBI, U.S. Attorney Bill Williams, and Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward all spoke, but none took questions.

See my updates, "'They're Going to Murder All of Us!' — #Malheur Occupiers Livestream Siege at Wildlife Refuge (VIDEO)," and "News Conference on Occupation of #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)."

Military-Style Preparations Taking Place at Airport in Burns, Oregon (PHOTOS) — #MalheurOccupation

Found just now on Twitter:

More cops are arriving headed south on 205, with vehicles carrying Porta potty's roadblock equipment, etc. #OregonStandOff

— Kelly House (@Kelly_M_House) January 27, 2016

There are several armored vehicles and what appears to be a Blackhawk-like helicopter outside that Burns airport. #OregonStandoff

— Kelly House (@Kelly_M_House) January 27, 2016

Serious law enforcement presence in paramilitary getup block off entry to refuge. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/NeAIW27wTF

— Beth Nakamura (@bethnakamura) January 27, 2016

Several armored vehicles & what appears 2 b a black hawk at airport in Burns. Cops @ entrance #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/yuwDHgzNI9

— Beth Nakamura (@bethnakamura) January 27, 2016

I joked about a "Janet Reno-style" assault on the occupation headquarters earlier this month. That doesn't sound so funny right now.

ADDED: Seen just now. Folks better look out.

.@OPB was told by FBI that we were on our own -- essentially stuff is going down and we need to move.

— John Sepulvado (@JohnLGC) January 27, 2016

Kate's Tiny Bikinis — Sports Illustrated Swimsuit (VIDEO)

SI's supposed to be teasing some of the new swimsuit issue today, so expect updates.

Here's Kate:

WATCH: Video Shows Ammon Bundy Being Handcuffed During Arrest on U.S. Highway 395

Following-up, "UPDATE: LeVoy Finicum 'Charged at Law Enforcement,' Then Shot and Killed, Driver Says (VIDEO)."

I'm still waiting for video of LeVoy Finicum allegedly charging officers before being shot and killed. There's footage out there. Obviously the authorities are getting their ducks all in a row.

A press conference is scheduled for 1030am Pacific, and I'll be updating with reports throughout the day.

Here's ABC News:

Reward in Orange County Jailbreak Raised to $200 Thousand (VIDEO)

At the O.C. Register, "Reward for 3 escaped inmates now $200,000 as Board of Supervisors adds $150,000."

And at KCAL News 9 Los Angeles:

UPDATE: LeVoy Finicum 'Charged at Law Enforcement,' Then Shot and Killed, Driver Says (VIDEO)

More details are emerging.

But frankly, I'm not giving any of the reports credibility until I see video of the engagement.

At the Portland Oregonian, "Militant shot and killed while charging police, driver says":

BURNS – Robert "LaVoy" Finicum, the spokesman of the refuge occupation, was shot and killed after he charged police during a roadside stop north of Burns on Tuesday, according to a man on Facebook who claims to be the driver of one of two vehicles involved in the highway shooting.

Mark McConnell posted a video to Facebook Wednesday morning, recounting the Tuesday afternoon scene that led to Finicum's death and the subsequent arrest of eight people involved in the Jan. 2 takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

His account emerged as police established new checkpoints on roads leading to the refuge, where an unknown number of occupiers remained. Police said only local property owners would be allowed through. The number and exact location of the checkpoints couldn't immediately be established.

In his video, McConnell said Ammon Bundy and Cavalier were in the vehicle he was driving to John Day for a community meeting. He said Finicum was driving a pickup that carried Ryan Bundy, Payne, Cox and an 18-year-old girl.

He said as they traveled on U.S. 395 police vehicles pulled in behind them and stopped them. McConnell said he was removed by police first, then Ammon Bundy then Cavalier.

He said Finicum's pickup was stopped about 200 yards away, and one passenger already was on the ground in handcuffs.

McConnell said Payne and Cox later recounted how Payne and Finicum got into a "heated discussion" about what to do.

"LaVoy was passionate about this, about the movement," McConnell said.

McConnell said he noticed movement, and Finicum "took off" in the pickup with the remaining passengers. He said Payne and Cox described encountering a police roadblock about a mile north on the highway and apparently tried to get around it, becoming stuck in the snow.

"When he exited the vehicle, the rear wheels were still spinning," McConnell said. "He charged at law enforcement" and was shot.

McConnell disputed earlier accounts on social media that Finicum was shot while on his knees with his hands up.

McConnell said he and the 18-year-old were taken to Burns for questioning and later released.

His account couldn't be immediately confirmed, but several details matched accounts from law enforcement sources...

Keep reading.

McConnell's recorded a second video with additional details of the arrest, "Mark McConnell eyewitness account of Bundy arrests."

#Malheur Militiaman Jon Ritzheimer Booked Into 4th Avenue Jail in Phoenix (VIDEO)

Following-up from last night, "Malheur Occupier Jon Ritzheimer Surrenders to Authorities, Says Goodbye to Daughter in Facebook Video."

Here's the local report, at ABC News 15 Phoenix:

French Justice Minister Quits Over Plan to Strip Citizenship of French-Born Dual Nationals Convicted of Terrorism (VIDEO)

Screw the bitch.

At the New York Times, "French Justice Minister Quits Over Plan to Strip Citizenship From Terrorists":

PARIS — The French justice minister, one of the most outspoken and progressive voices in the government, resigned on Wednesday after a clash with her own government over a proposal to strip the citizenship of French-born dual nationals convicted of terrorism.

President François Hollande’s office said in a statement that he had accepted the resignation of the minister, Christiane Taubira, a native of French Guiana. She had held the position since Mr. Hollande’s election in 2012 and has disagreed with his government on several issues.

The statement said that Mr. Hollande had expressed “gratitude” for Ms. Taubira’s work and that she had reformed the justice system with “conviction, determination and talent.”

Although Ms. Taubira’s resignation came abruptly, she was widely known as an independent spirit with a bent more leftist than that of the Socialist government.

Ms. Taubira said on Twitter that she was “proud” of her time at the Justice Ministry. “Sometimes to resist is to stay, sometimes to resist is to leave,” she wrote in a second post. “By loyalty to oneself, to us,” she said. She added that the last word went “to ethics and to law.”

The proposal to strip the citizenship of French-born dual nationals convicted of terrorism was put forward by Mr. Hollande in the aftermath of the attacks in the Paris area in November that killed 130 people.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls, who was presenting the proposal on Wednesday at the National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament, said the legislation would make no reference to dual citizenship and that it would only apply to the most serious crimes...

You're a communist if you're "more leftist" than the Socialist government.

Still more.

And watch, at Euronews, "French justice minister resigns over anti-terror plan."

Ridership on SoCal Public Transportation Continues to Decline, Despite Billions of Dollars Invested

And that's with gas prices still near three bucks a gallon. Elsewhere around the country folks are filling up for low prices not seen since the 1970s. We'd have even further declining ridership if taxes and regulations weren't so onerous in the once-Golden State

At the Los Angeles Times, "Despite billions invested, ridership on Southern California public transit continues to decline":

For almost a decade, transit ridership has declined across Southern California despite enormous and costly efforts by top transportation officials to entice people out of their cars and onto buses and trains.

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the region's largest carrier, lost more than 10% of its boardings from 2006 to 2015, a decline that appears to be accelerating. Despite a $9-billion investment in new light rail and subway lines, Metro now has fewer boardings than it did three decades ago, when buses were the county's only transit option.

Most other agencies fare no better. In Orange County, bus ridership plummeted 30% in the last seven years, while some smaller bus operators across the region have experienced declines approaching 25%. In the last two years alone, a Metro study found that 16 transit providers in Los Angeles County saw average quarterly declines of 4% to 5%.

Years after the end of the worst recession since World War II, which prompted deep service cuts, transit agencies are still trying to figure out where their riders have gone and what can be done to bring them back, including major changes to routes and schedules.

Officials say ridership is cyclical and customers will return as traffic congestion worsens, bus service improves, new rail lines open and more of the region's population moves to walkable neighborhoods near transit stops.

But some experts say the downturn could represent a permanent shift in how people get around, propelled by a changing job market, falling gas prices, fare increases, declining immigration and the growing popularity of other transportation options, including bicycling and ride-hailing companies such as Uber and Lyft.

"I don't know if this is long-term, but it doesn't feel like it's temporary when we've been dealing with 36 straight months of declining ridership," said Darrell Johnson, chief executive of the Orange County Transportation Authority...

We're governed by idiots. How much money is being wasted on the "bullet train" right now, the train no one wants and of which few will ride? The state's Democrats will have to outlaw single-family cars before any boondoggle like this gets anywhere near viable.

But keep reading, FWIW.

LaVoy Finicum Died Defending Freedom, Says Daughter Arianna Finicum Brown (VIDEO)

At the Portland Oregonian, "Oregon standoff spokesman died defending beliefs, daughter says":

Robert "LaVoy" Finicum was a law-abiding man who preferred to spend time with his large family and his 100-head of cattle on their land in northern Arizona along the Utah border, one of his daughters said Tuesday.

The cowboy and self-published novelist had only a traffic ticket or two on his record and encouraged his children to follow a righteous path, said daughter Arianna Finicum Brown.

Yet the quiet man found his voice — and a more confrontational calling — in 2014 after joining Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy and dozens of others who stood up against a federal government they believed had overstepped its bounds.

"He came into his own — even though that wasn't necessarily his preference," she said of Finicum, who became one of the more well-known faces of the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge near Burns.

"My dad knew he needed to stand up for what was right, to defend freedom," Brown said. "He was willing to die defending them."

Finicum, 55, was killed Tuesday after the FBI and Oregon State Police moved to arrest several of the occupation's leaders as they drove to a meeting in neighboring Grant County.

Occupation leader Ammon Bundy, who was with Finicum, reportedly told his wife that Finicum was cooperating when he was shot, but sources told The Oregonian/OregonLive that Finicum resisted arrest...

I'll believe when I see it. The shootout's gotta be on video somewhere. The scene of the arrest was swarming with law enforcement officials.

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Bundy Militiamen Booked Into Multnomah County Jail; FBI Maintaining Checkpoints Outside Refuge (VIDEO)."

Bundy Militiamen Booked Into Multnomah County Jail; FBI Maintaining Checkpoints Outside Refuge (VIDEO)

Here's KOIN News 6 Portland, on the incarcerations, "Bundy brothers, 5 others booked into Mult. Co. jail."

And here's the FBI Portland's statement from earlier this morning, "Joint Statement by the FBI and Oregon State Police on Law Enforcement Activity Near Burns, Oregon."

Plus, from Pat Dooris on Twitter, "FBI and state police locking down roads leading into wildlife refuge. we are on the inside...for now," and "Anyone trying to get to refuge will be stopped. Trying to get past check point gets you arrested. Anyone leaving will be ID'd and searched."

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

Donald Trump, in Feud with Fox News, Won't Attend Thursday's GOP Debate in Iowa (VIDEO)

Here's the report at the Washington Post, via Memeorandum, "Trump will ‘definitely not’ participate in Fox debate, campaign says."

And at the New York Times, "Donald Trump, in Feud With Fox News, Shuns Debate."

My sense is that he should participate, although this could be another masterstroke at dominating news coverage heading into the Monday caucuses. (And of course, he might actually want to "freeze" his lead in the polls heading into Iowa, and deny Ted Cruz a chance to score some last-minute points.)

In any case, here's KCAL News 9 Los Angeles:

SNL Cold Open: Sarah Palin (Tina Fey) Endorses Donald Trump (Darrell Hammond) for President (VIDEO)

You gotta love it.

Reports: Convoys of Military 'Assault Vehicles' Descend on Headquarters at Malheur Wildlife Reserve

I'm seeing multiple reports of intense military-style mobilization taking place in the vicinity of Burns, Oregon.

See Lauren Martinez, at KTVZ News 21 (Bend, Oregon), "Convoy w armored vehicles are leaving from where the airport is," and "We've seen at least 3 separate convoys head towards the Malhuer Refuge."

And from Arun Gupta, "After Ammon Bundy takedown, military convoy in Burns, may be moving on militants in Malheur," and "[Assault] may be in works on Malheur militants after Ammon Bundy arrest, FBI, OR St police assault vehicle gassing up."

Also, "In Burns, OR after Ammon Bundy arrest, assault vehicles, LEOs in full battle-rattle. Assault on Malheur militants?"

Plus, from Oregon Public Broadcasting, "Malheur Occupation: Militants Still Inside Refuge After 1 Dead, 8 Arrested."

And OPB's Ryan Hass reports that one militiaman is in for the fight, "Just spoke to militant David Fry. He said there are no children inside the refuge, but women are present according to him," and "Fry said he's willing to die after Finicum was killed. 'You guys took him out, now you're going to have to take me out'."

Plus, "Fry also said he spoke to his family tonight and 'said his goodbyes'," and "Fry wouldn't confirm how many militants at the refuge. But said the people who are there are 'armed to the teeth'."

Still more, from JJ McNab, "Militant says that the FBI has given them a final warning."

UPDATE: From Les Zaitz, at the Portland Oregonian, "FBI tells Oregon refuge occupiers to leave as authorities set up roadblocks."

Police put roadblocks up around refuge, urge occupiers to leave. The latest development: https://t.co/r46RVy1UII

— Les Zaitz (@LesZaitz) January 27, 2016

Report: Militia Spokesman LaVoy Finicum 'was shot three times while he had his hands up in the air...'

The Wall Street Journal reported that Finicum had drawn his weapon after being stopped by the FBI. See, "Report Suggests LaVoy Finicum Exchanged Gunfire with FBI Agents During Highway Traffic Stop."

But this Los Angeles Times report says Finicum had his hands up, "Oregon occupation spokesman reportedly killed, eight other protesters arrested":

One person died and eight others were taken into custody Tuesday when authorities confronted an armed protest group responsible for a nearly monthlong occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon, officials said.

Killed in the confrontation was Arizona rancher Robert "LaVoy" Finicum, who had acted as a spokesman for the group of self-styled defenders of the Constitution, according to Nevada state Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, who spoke with the wife of Ammon Bundy, the son of a renegade Nevada rancher and a leader of the group.

Bundy was among five people initially taken into custody, including his brother, Ryan, who was shot in the arm during the incident, Fiore said.

She said Ammon Bundy told his wife in a phone call that the group had been cooperative. He told her that Finicum was shot three times while he had his hands up in the air, according to Fiore.

“It’s very unfortunate. The only saving grace is there’s six witnesses to it,” said Fiore, a supporter of the Bundy family who called the federal Bureau of Land Management, one of the targets of the protesters' ire, a “bureaucratic agency of terrorism.”

“My perspective is our government has acted lawless and we have got to stop" it, she said...

I cited Assemblywoman Fiore at last night's post, "CONFIRMED: Spokesman LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns, Oregon."

She hasn't updated her Twitter feed yet.

I'll have more later...

ADDED: From the Portland Oregonian, "UPDATE: Sources say that LaVoy Finicum and Ryan Bundy disobeyed orders to surrender and resisted arrest."

Report Suggests LaVoy Finicum Exchanged Gunfire with FBI Agents During Highway Traffic Stop

Following-up from my earlier report, "WATCH: Exclusive Video Shows Shots Fired in Ammon Bundy Traffic Stop Outside Burns, Oregon."

Here's the report at the Wall Street Journal, which has a rough sketch of the firefight that killed LaVoy Finicum, "Oregon Occupation Leader Ammon Bundy Arrested, One Dead, After Confrontation With FBI":

Law-enforcement officials familiar with the matter said the incident took place as Mr. Bundy and a handful of other leaders were driving to a public event nearby. Agents with the FBI stopped the vehicle, at which point one of the individuals in the vehicle pulled out a weapon, the people familiar with the incident said.

At that point, FBI agents fired. The individual who was brandishing the weapon suffered fatal injuries, officials said. Officials didn’t identify the dead suspect. Another suspect suffered non-life-threatening injuries, these people said. No FBI agents were injured, according to these people...

The "dead suspect" would be Finicum.

He'd apparently been talking apocalyptically in recent days, and in an interview with the Oregonian said that the feds were becoming "hardened" and loaded for bear. See, "Just Yesterday, LaVoy Finicum Warned That Feds Had 'Become Hardened', Brandished Rifles (VIDEO)."

WATCH: Video Shows Ryan Bundy Arriving at Hospital After Standoff with FBI and Oregon State Police

Via Ruptly:



Here's the report at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, "Shots fired, 1 killed in arrest of Oregon militants."

Previous standoff blogging links are here.

Malheur Occupier Jon Ritzheimer Surrenders to Authorities, Says Goodbye to Daughter in Facebook Video

Interesting that he fled home to Arizona just hours before the highway shootout that killed LaVoy Finicum.

Troubling too.

More on that later, I guess.

In any case, at the Portland Oregonian, "Watch: Occupier Jon Ritzheimer says goodbye to daughters in Facebook post asking for donations."

The Facebook clip is here, "I came home to visit my family. The Feds know I am here and are asking me to turn myself in."

Previous shootout blogging here.

Just Yesterday, LaVoy Finicum Warned That Feds Had 'Become Hardened', Brandished Rifles (VIDEO)

Previous reporting is here, "CONFIRMED: Spokesman LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns, Oregon," and "Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody."

Also, "VIDEO: Highlights of LaVoy Finicum's Role During Occupation of Malheur National Wildlife Refuge," and "WATCH: Exclusive Video Shows Shots Fired in Ammon Bundy Traffic Stop Outside Burns, Oregon."

Now watch, via the Portland Oregonian:

Donald Trump Rallies Evangelicals (VIDEO)

Well, if he siphons off enough religious voters, then Ted Cruz is going to be finished.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Donald Trump, hoping to slow Ted Cruz's surge, makes inroads with evangelicals":

In the final days before Iowans begin the presidential nominating process, Donald Trump, whose candidacy has both perplexed and enlivened various factions of the Republican Party, is focused on shoring up the support of the state’s evangelical voters who could propel him to victory and bolster his momentum in the upcoming primaries.

Trump announced Tuesday the endorsement of Jerry Falwell Jr., an influential evangelical leader and president of Liberty University, who called the billionaire businessman a "successful executive and entrepreneur, a wonderful father and a man who I believe can lead our country to greatness again.”

The endorsement from Falwell comes a week after former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin tossed her support behind the billionaire’s candidacy. Palin has a strong following of evangelical and tea party supporters.

Each of those endorsements arrives as Trump seeks to slow the surge of his top rival in Iowa, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has strong support from evangelicals.

“It’s all calculated and really shows how he can morph himself so that he’s appealing,” Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, said of Trump’s support from Falwell and Palin. “He does what he needs to. ... He's not a tried and true politician, but ... in many ways, he has become a politician. Has Trump ever talked about evangelicals in his career? I would say not so much.”

Indeed, over the weekend Trump attended church in Iowa and last week he spoke at the invocation at Falwell's Liberty University.

National polls show Trump is succeeding in winning over evangelicals -- who are also influential in South Carolina, another state with an early vote.   An NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday showed Trump with 37% support from white evangelicals nationwide, while Cruz had 20%, a 9% drop since last week.

Still, a mix of state and national polls reveals the race for evangelical support appears to be a toss-up...

More.

And watch, via Greta Van Susteren, "Jerry Falwell Jr Endorses Donald Trump - On the Record."

WATCH: Exclusive Video Shows Shots Fired in Ammon Bundy Traffic Stop Outside Burns, Oregon

Previous reporting is here, "CONFIRMED: Spokesman LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns, Oregon," and "Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody."

Also, "VIDEO: Highlights of LaVoy Finicum's Role During Occupation of Malheur National Wildlife Refuge."

Now, here's a video of the traffic stop, with shots fired, via KOIN News 6 Portland:

Jackie Johnson's Weather Forecast for Wednesday

It was hot today, man!

I guess we're really having global warming (not).

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

VIDEO: Highlights of LaVoy Finicum's Role During Occupation of Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

I'll update with highlights of this man's wonderful life as I get them.

Previous reporting is here, "CONFIRMED: Spokesman LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns, Oregon," and "Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody."

And watch, via the Portland Oregonian:

CONFIRMED: Spokesman LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns, Oregon

Raw Story is reporting, "LaVoy Finicum — the Oregon militant beneath the blue tarp — killed in police shootout."

ADDED: My live blog is here, "Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody."

7:55pm: At the Oregonian, "5 arrested, 1 dead in connection with Oregon standoff, FBI says: read the press release":

The arrested individuals include:
Ammon Edward Bundy, age 40, of Emmett, Idaho Ryan C. Bundy, age 43, of Bunkerville, Nevada Brian Cavalier, age 44, of Bunkerville, Nevada Shawna Cox, age 59, Kanab, Utah Ryan Waylen Payne, age 32, of Anaconda, Montana These probable cause arrests occurred along Highway 235.

In a separate event in Burns, Oregon, at approximately 5:50 pm, Oregon State Police arrested the following individual:

Joseph Donald O'Shaughnessy, age 45, Cottonwood, Arizona.

8:00pm Pacific: Nevada Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, a major figure in the 2014 Cliven Bundy standoff, is confirming Mr. Finicum's death:

My heart & prays go out to LaVoy Finicum's family he was just murdered with his hands up in Burns OR.Ryan Bundy has been shot in the arm

— Michele Fiore (@VoteFiore) January 27, 2016

8:17pm Pacific: The Oregonian confirms, "UPDATE: #OregonStandoff spokesman Robert 'LaVoy' Finicum killed, Bundys in custody after gunfight near Burns."

And from the report:

BURNS – Oregon standoff spokesman Robert "LaVoy" Finicum was killed and other top leaders of the wildlife refuge occupation were arrested Tuesday after law enforcement officials stopped vehicles about 15 miles north of Burns.

Authorities did not release the name of the person who died at the highway stop, but two sources told The Oregonian/Oregonlive that it was Finicum, 55, of Cane Beds, Arizona, one of the cowboy-hat wearing faces of the takeover.

State police later confirmed that troopers were involved in a shooting about 4:30 p.m. along U.S. 395 about 20 miles north of Burns...

Updated: Reports — One Dead as Shots Fired at #Malheur Wildlife Reserve; Ammon Bundy Said to Be in Custody

This is breaking news.

From Les Zaitz, "Pete Santilli reporting that Ammon Bundy is in custody and shots were fired. No police confirmation," and "At the refuge, no indication of trouble. One militant discounted report of arrests, said no one is leaving, no police there."

And at the Portland Oregonian, "Pete Santilli: Militants supporter says Ammon Bundy in custody."

Also, at OPB, "The latest on #MalheurRefuge: Militants fail to appear in John Day for a meeting. Police activity is ongoing."

Expect updates...

MORE: At the Oregonian, "Oregon standoff: Ammon Bundy reportedly in custody, shots fired (live updates)."

6:59pm Pacific: At OPB, "Close friend confirms that Ammon Bundy in police custody."

7:03pm Pacific: From Les Zaitz, "One dead, six arrested in traffic stop. Ammon Bundy, Ryan Bundy, Ryan Payne in custody."

7:06pm Pacific: At the Oregonian, "Bundys in custody, one militant dead after gunfight near Burns."

7:18pm Pacific: From Tim Pool, "FBI releases statement. One deceased at Militia standoff."

7:33pm Pacific: At OPB, "Law enforcement said no additional information will be released at this time about the deceased person."

7:41pm Pacific: At RT, "The FBI said one person who was 'a subject of a federal probable cause arrest is deceased.' He said they are not releasing any information on the person 'pending identification by the medical examiner’s office'."

7:50pm: UPDATE: "BREAKING: Report Says LaVoy Finicum Killed in Shootout at #Malheur Refuge Near Burns Oregon!"

Republican Voters Say Donald Trump is 'Likely Winner' of Party's Nomination, Finds New Washington Post/ABC News Poll

Following-up from previously, "Steamroller: Donald Trump Appears Stronger Than Ever as First Voting Nears."

At ABC News, "GOPers Call Trump the Likely Winner; His Lead Stays Big, With Cruz Behind (POLL)":

Donald Trump holds his lead for the GOP nomination and has soared in expectations: 64 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now expect him to be the party’s nominee, up sharply in the last two months.

Expectations that Trump will win the nomination have jumped by 25 percentage points since November among Republican-leaning voters in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Two-thirds also say they’d accept him as their party’s nominee. And he’s seen by 56 percent as their most electable nominee in the general election this fall.

Trump has 37 percent support nationally among Republicans who are registered to vote, unchanged from last month (with no bounce from his endorsement by Sarah Palin). Ted Cruz has advanced by a slight 6 points from last month, and 15 points from October, to a clear, if somewhat distant, second place, with 21 percent. Marco Rubio’s in the third slot, 11 percent, with all others in the single digits in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Rubio appears to have a stand-in shot – he does well as a second choice, selected by 23 percent now vs. 14 percent last month. Ben Carson, for his part, has continued to crater, showing the sometime changeability of voter preferences: he’s gone from 22 percent two months ago to 7 percent now, almost precisely swapping places with Cruz.

There’s essentially no change among lower-tier candidates – 5 percent for Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Chris Christie, 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, 2 percent apiece for John Kasich and Mike Huckabee, 1 percent for Rand Paul and less than that for Rick Santorum...

Still more.

And the raw internals here, "GOPers Call Trump the Likely Winner; His Lead Stays Big, with Cruz Behind."

Steamroller: Donald Trump Appears Stronger Than Ever as First Voting Nears

I don't know.

If Ted Cruz is losing confidence, then perhaps Donald Trump really is unstoppable.

At the Washington Post, "As first voting nears, Trump seems stronger":

One week before the first votes of the 2016 campaign are cast, Donald Trump has solidified his standing nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Republicans see Trump as the strongest candidate on major issues and by far the most electable in the large field of GOP hopefuls.

The Republican electorate is in a sour mood as its members prepare to begin the process of picking a presidential nominee. Almost 9 in 10 say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and more than 8 in 10 are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works, including nearly 4 in 10 who say they’re angry about it.

Two-thirds worry about maintaining their current living standard, more than 6 in 10 say people with similar values are losing influence in American life, and about half say the nation’s best days are behind it. Half also say immigrants mainly weaken American society, compared with 55 percent of the overall population who say immigrants strengthen America.

Amid this political climate, Trump has maintained his place atop the Republican field for six months. He now receives the support of 37 percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, almost identical to the 38 percent support he enjoyed a month ago.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas runs second in the national survey, with 21 percent, surpassing his previous high of 15 percent in December. Third place belongs to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11 percent, virtually unchanged from 12 percent a month ago....

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop in Farmington, N.H. (John Minchillo/Associated Press)
One week before the first votes of the 2016 campaign are cast, Donald Trump has solidified his standing nationally, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Republicans see Trump as the strongest candidate on major issues and by far the most electable in the large field of GOP hopefuls.

The Republican electorate is in a sour mood as its members prepare to begin the process of picking a presidential nominee. Almost 9 in 10 say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, and more than 8 in 10 are dissatisfied with the way the federal government works, including nearly 4 in 10 who say they’re angry about it.

Two-thirds worry about maintaining their current living standard, more than 6 in 10 say people with similar values are losing influence in American life, and about half say the nation’s best days are behind it. Half also say immigrants mainly weaken American society, compared with 55 percent of the overall population who say immigrants strengthen America.

Amid this political climate, Trump has maintained his place atop the Republican field for six months. He now receives the support of 37 percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, almost identical to the 38 percent support he enjoyed a month ago.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas runs second in the national survey, with 21 percent, surpassing his previous high of 15 percent in December. Third place belongs to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11 percent, virtually unchanged from 12 percent a month ago.

Rounding out the field are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 7 percent, former Florida governor Jeb Bush at 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4 percent, businesswoman Carly Fiorina at 3 percent, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2 percent each, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 1 percent. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum registered less than 1 percent.

When first and second choices are combined, Trump is named by 49 percent, Cruz by 39 percent and Rubio by 32 percent — well ahead of the others.

At this point in presidential campaigns, as the primary season is beginning, candidates’ support can be tenuous and shift quickly in response to the first state-level contests. Results in Iowa, which holds its caucuses Monday, and in New Hampshire, which votes eight days later, often scramble national numbers. Trump enters this crucial phase strong nationally, but it isn’t clear what a loss in Iowa would do to his support.

But The Post-ABC survey offers some clues. Trump’s supporters appear more committed to him than do people backing other candidates. A majority (57 percent) of Trump supporters say they will definitely vote for him. For all the other candidates combined, 34 percent are as firmly committed, while nearly two-thirds say they could change their minds.

Trump’s committed support exceeds what the previous Republican nominee received before the Iowa caucuses four years ago: 36 percent of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s supporters said then that they would definitely support his candidacy.

The poll also finds no sign that Trump’s support wavers among the Republicans who are most likely to attend primaries and caucuses, which are typically low-turnout contests. Trump’s 16-point advantage among all registered Republican voters is similar to his lead among Republicans who say they are certain to vote, report voting in 2012 Republican contests or are following the race “very closely.”

Although there was resistance to his candidacy at the beginning, Trump now is broadly acceptable to GOP voters. About 2 in 3 Republicans say they would find him acceptable as their nominee, a percentage almost identical to Cruz’s and Rubio’s. Rubio is seen as the least unacceptable, followed by Cruz, Carson and then Trump. Only about half of Republicans say Christie and Bush are acceptable, and Bush has the highest “unacceptable” percentage at 45...

Still more.

Ava Lovley, 9, Bursts Into Tears When Her Mom Tells Her She's Going to Meet Donald Trump (VIDEO)

At the Portland Press Herald, "Maine mom surprises daughter, 9, with trip to Trump rally: Video."

And watch, "9 year old girl finds out she's meeting Donald Trump in person!"

I love this. It's what politics is all about.

Ahead of Iowa Caucuses, Ted Cruz Shows Doubts, Says 'No State is a Must-Win for Us' (VIDEO)

And the consensus now is that record turnout in Iowa gives Donald Trump the advantage. Perhaps Ted Cruz is seeing the writing on the wall and is now looking to tamp down expectations.

The fact is, Iowa is a "must-win" state for him, because if he can't overcome Trump there, it's going to be a steamroller of "Trumpmentum" after that.

Frankly, all the hand-wringing's probably for naught at this point. Trump really does appear unstoppable, which was Cruz's own admission at an Iowa meet-up earlier today.

Watch, here's Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Channel, "Mounting Signs Turnout GOP Candidates In Iowa Caucuses Could Hit Record."

Paris Taxi Drivers Strike Over Uber (VIDEO)

I love this.

When France has unrest they get all revolutionary, heh.

At the Guardian UK, "France hit by day of protest as security forces fire teargas at taxi strike."

And at the BBC, "Anti-Uber taxi drivers block Paris road during strike."

California Bikini Model Melissa Riso

She's on Twitter.

And at the Last Men on Earth, "MELISSA RISO IN A BIKINI."

BONUS: At Pirate's Cove, "If All You See……is horrible snow created by too much carbon pollution from Other People, you might just be a Warmist."

NewsBusted — Bernie Sanders is Leading Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire...

This is great.

Via Theo Spark.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Propose Highest Capital Gains Tax Rate in History

As if this was supposed to be a surprise.

Via Vodkapundit (at Instapundit), "FORBES: CLINTON AND SANDERS PROPOSE HIGHEST CAPITAL GAINS TAX RATE IN HISTORY."

Laura Ingraham Explains Donald Trump's Appeal on 'Fox & Friends' (VIDEO)

Remember, Ingraham came out hard against National Review.

Here, "National Review's Unwise Excommunication of Donald Trump."

And watch, via Fox News:

Eroding Cliffs Threaten Homes Along the Coast at Pacifica, California (VIDEO)

At LAT, "El Niño storms erode Pacifica bluff as homes teeter on the edge."

And watch, at CBS This Morning, "Cliff erosion threatens to push California homes into sea."

Alexandra Mezher, 22, Swedish Social Worker, Stabbed to Death by 15-Year-Old Muslim 'Refugee' (VIDEO)

At Blazing Cat Fur, "Teen Refugee Stabs Swedish Social Worker."

And at Bare Naked Islam, "SWEDEN: ‘Teenage’ Muslim migrant stabs refugee center worker to death."

Still more, at RWN, "Liberal Volunteer Savagely Stabbed to Death at CHILD Migrant Center by 15-Year-Old Muslim ‘Refugee’."

And watch, at CNN, "Police say teen refugee kills Swedish woman."

Donald Trump Surges to 41 Percent in Latest CNN National Poll (VIDEO)

It's going to be a steamroller.

Trump's going to win Iowa, and then from there it's all over. He'll obliterate the competition in New Hampshire, and drive out the remaining bottom-tier candidates in South Carolina.

At the Conservative Treehouse, "CNN/ORC Poll – Donald Trump Surges To 41%, Ted Cruz 19%, Marco Rubio 8%…"

And watch, via CNN, "Poll: Trump dominates GOP field at 41%."

Britney Spears Bikini Videos Are Breaking the Internet

Heh.

I can dig it.

Watch, at Harpers, "THESE MYSTERIOUS VIDEOS OF BRITNEY SPEARS DANCING IN A BIKINI ARE BREAKING THE INTERNET."

As Donald Trump and Ted Cruz Soar, GOP Leaders' Exasperation Grows

There's been numerous iterations of the story written already, but still, I'm getting a kick out of them.

At the New York Times (via Memeorandum):

DES MOINES — Republican leaders are growing alarmed by the ferocious ways the party’s mainstream candidates for president are attacking one another, and they fear that time is running out for any of them to emerge as a credible alternative to Donald J. Trump or Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Leaders of the Republican establishment, made up of elected officials, lobbyists and donors, are also sending a message to the mainstream candidates, such as former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, that they should withdraw from the race if they do not show strength soon.

The members of the party establishment are growing impatient as they watch Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz dominate the field heading into the Iowa caucuses next Monday and the New Hampshire primary about a week later.

The party elders had hoped that one of their preferred candidates, such as Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, would be rising above the others by now and becoming a contender to rally around.

Instead, they have a muddled field of battered mainstream candidates: Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio, Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey...

Keep reading.

Experts Question Detention and Security Protocols at Orange County Jail

O.C. jail does head counts just two times a day, and they place violent criminals --- suspected murderers --- in dormitories rather than individual cells.

Not only that, there's been no escape from the jail since 1989 and deputies were probably pretty complacent about anything exciting happening.

At LAT, "As manhunt for 3 inmates continues, experts dissect why it took the O.C. jail so long to detect the escape."

Plus, "Escaped inmates charged with new felonies as Orange County manhunt widens."

PREVIOUSLY: "Authorities Say Escaped Inmates Could Be 'Embedded with O.C.'s Vietnamese Community (VIDEO)."

Authorities Say Escaped Inmates Could Be 'Embedded with O.C.'s Vietnamese Community (VIDEO)

Some Vietnamese gang homies could be put up the escapees.

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



PREVIOUSLY: "Massive Manhunt Continues for Three Inmates Who Broke Out of Orange County Jail (VIDEO)."

Bernie Sanders Calls for a Political Revolution — #DemTownHall (VIDEO)

I've blogged this before. Sanders is consistent if anything.

From the town hall tonight:

Jackie's Back with Tuesday's Weather

It's been nice. Only a few sprinkles of rain here and there.

But here's Jackie:

Hillary Clinton's Lead Shrinks in New Nationwide CNN Poll; Bernie Sanders Surging (VIDEO)

Sanders is surging especially among young people. The buzz is that he's reassembling the Obama coalition from 2008.

We'll see. Anybody who puts the pressure on the Clinton machine's gonna get a little respect from me.

At CNN, "Poll: Clinton tops Sanders, but lead shrinks":

Washington (CNN)A majority of Democratic voters say Hillary Clinton is their top choice in the race for their party's nomination, but her margin over Bernie Sanders is smaller than it has been at any point since before the field narrowed to three.

According to a new nationwide CNN/ORC Poll, Clinton tops Sanders 52% to 38% among registered voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is far behind the two top candidates at just 2%.

Though Clinton's lead over Sanders remains in double-digits, these figures represent the tightest the contest has been since early September. Back then, before Vice President Joe Biden had opted out of the race and before the remaining Democratic field ever took to a debate stage, Clinton topped Sanders by just 10 points.

The poll findings come as the three remaining Democratic candidates prepare to make their final pitches to Iowa voters in a town hall set to air on CNN Monday night.

Though the national picture tilts in Clinton's direction, according to this poll, other recent surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire -- the two states hosting the first contests of the 2016 nomination battle -- suggest Clinton will face an uphill climb in trying to grab an early victory. Iowa polls find the top two Democrats near-even among that state's likely caucus-goers, while Sanders has something of a home-field advantage in New Hampshire and tops Clinton there handily.

The national survey shows a Democratic electorate sharply splintered along demographic lines.

Women, non-whites, self-identified Democrats and those over age 50 are Clinton's strongest backers. Men, white voters, independents who lean Democratic and younger voters are more apt to say they plan to support Sanders.

Only independents and younger voters, however, give Sanders a significant edge over the former secretary of state. Men and white voters are about evenly split between the two...

Keep reading. There's video at the link.

Donald Trump Supporters Brave Snow and Cold Ahead of Event in Sioux City, Iowa (VIDEO)

WATCH: Neil Cavuto talks to Byron York, on Fox News.

If folks are braving the harsh conditions to hear Trump speak, will they also make it out to the caucuses?

We'll know one week from today.

Conservative Icon Dana Loesch Discusses National Review's 'Against Trump' Issue on 'The Blaze' TV (VIDEO)

Following-up from previously, "Dana Loesch Attacked for Her Participation in National Review's Anti-Trump Issue."

Here's Dana. It's too bad that she even needs to make a clip like this, but the unhinged attacks have been off the charts.

Tian Tian the Panda Loves the Snow (VIDEO)

I saw folks mocking this video on Twitter, but I think it's great!

Watch, "Panda loves snow in Washington winter wonderland: Tian Tian, a male Panda at the Smithsonian National Zoological Park in Washington, DC, was clearly delighted to wake up to drifts of snow on Saturday."

Baltimore Residents Still Waiting for City Government to Clear Snow Off the Roads (VIDEO)

Baltimore's pretty much got the award wrapped up for worst-run city in America.

At the Baltimore Sun, "Baltimore City officials don't know how long it will take to clear snow":

On side streets where snow remains untouched, the mayor said, the fluffy powder has melted and re-frozen into unplowable masses that require construction equipment to pick up, load into dump trucks and drive away.

"It has only been 36 hours ago that the snow stopped falling in what was the largest snowfall in Baltimore's history," [Mayor Stephanie] Rawlings-Blake said. "Needless to say the recovery is going to take time."

And watch, at CBS News 13 Baltimore, "After Record Snowfall, Baltimore Residents Still Waiting For Streets to Be Cleared," and "Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake Provides City Update on Storm."

Selena Gomez and Chloe Moretz in 'Neighbors 2' (VIDEO)

Watch the trailer, here.

And at Egotastic, "SELENA GOMEZ AND CHLOE MORETZ BIKINI HOTNESS IN 'NEIGHBORS 2'."

Super Bowl 50 Set for Epic Contest Between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton (VIDEO)

Following-up from previously, "Ratings and Viewership Way Up for AFC and NFC Championship Games."

At CBS This Morning, "What to watch for in Broncos-Panthers matchup at Super Bowl 50."

Ratings and Viewership Way Up for AFC and NFC Championship Games

Especially the AFC match-up between the Broncos and the Patriots. Definitely an epic football game and it didn't disappoint.

At the Los Angeles Times:

Peyton Manning is returning to the Super Bowl, but you probably knew that. Chances are pretty good, in fact, that you were watching as he and the Denver Broncos punched their tickets to the big game with a 20-18 win over the New England Patriots in the AFC championship.

Turns out quite a few people spent their Sunday afternoon tuned in to the game on CBS -- 53.3 million to be exact. That's the second-most viewers ever for an AFC championship game, behind the 54.9 million who watched the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New York Jets in 2011.

That game, however, was shown in prime time back East. This year's AFC showdown was the earlier of the two NFL conference championship games...

And there's video here, "Every Touchdown from the Playoffs!"

Dude Builds Igloo and Lists It on Airbnb During New York Storm for $200

Heh.

At ABC News, "Airbnb Igloo Rental in New York Inspired by Winter Blizzard."

Got shut down by @Airbnb for not meeting occupancy standards. Though they were nice enough to tell us that it looked very well constructed.

— Patrick M. Horton (@patrickmhorton) January 25, 2016

Bar Refaeli’s the Gift That Keeps on Giving

At BroBible, "Bar Refaeli’s Been Posting Some Hot Topless Pics Because She’s the Gift That Keeps on Giving."

Crunchtime in Iowa (VIDEO)

WATCH: Here's the coverage this morning from ABC News, "Presidential Candidates Countdown to the Iowa Caucus."

Donald Trump's Unique Playbook in Iowa

He's got a unique playbook everywhere, not just Iowa.

Nevertheless, here's Politico, "Trump follows his own unique Iowa playbook":

His rivals may be camped out there until Feb. 1 but he's thinking bigger — an early-voting state sweep.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Republican presidential candidates are frantically crisscrossing Iowa telling caucus-goers they are the only voters in the world that matter. But not front-runner Donald Trump.

While Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are camped out here until the Feb. 1 caucuses, Trump is following a different playbook.

He’s got a 757, and he’s flying it around the country in the final week regardless of what his rivals are doing. After barnstorming in Iowa over the weekend — he even overnighted in Sioux City — Trump has trips planned for New Hampshire on Monday and South Carolina on Wednesday, just days before the Iowa verdict is rendered.

Trump’s confidence — or maybe overconfidence — has his campaign dreaming of an early-state sweep. “It gives us a mandate,” Trump said of securing a victory in Iowa.

His momentum is hard to deny. Both the Cruz and Rubio camps privately acknowledge they very well might finish in second or third place here. Trump has even attracted establishment politicians like Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley to one of his rallies, something that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

While Grassley, an Iowa GOP icon, hasn’t endorsed Trump — the veteran senator still plans to appear with other candidates — he borrowed Trump’s slogan over the weekend, declaring it was time to “Make America great again.”

Trump continues to preach urgency to his Iowa faithful, even if his flight manifest tells a different story. “If you lose your wife, if you lose your husband — I don’t care. You’ve got to caucus,” Trump told about 500 people Saturday at Central College in Pella, Iowa.

Actually, that overnighter in Iowa is more in line with breaking the mold for the Trump campaign. He normally flies back to New York or Florida after hitting the Hawkeye State. See, "Donald Trump Aims to Win in Iowa."

But, yeah, I think the "Trumpmentum" at this point is pretty much insurmountable.

I can't believe that the polls are going to be wrong after they've consistently had Trump leading the national race for months, and this last few weeks in Iowa. Frankly, it's that nagging question about the ground game that's the only thing that's unsettled. And when you think about it, maybe even talk of "grassroots mobilizing" is old-fashioned this time around. Trump's reality-showman campaign might just boost untold numbers of first-time caucus-goes out on election night.

Pretty phenomenal.

More at the link, in any case.

East Coast Region Reported Snowfalls Not Seen in Generations (VIDEO)

At the New York Times, "After East Coast Blizzard, the Cleanup and the Workweek Begin":

While New York City emerged from the season’s first blizzard with relatively little damage, the toll along the Eastern Seaboard as a whole was more sobering: 29 deaths related to the storm, thousands of homes without power and serious flooding in coastal areas.

The great dig-out began with officials in New York lifting a travel ban, and airlines and commuter railroads slowly resumed service.

In separate appearances on CNN on Monday morning, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said that most mass transportation services were operating normally for the morning commute, with the exception of some parts of the Long Island Rail Road, where workers were still struggling to remove snow and ice.

But in other places along the East Coast, the tone was less upbeat.

In Baltimore, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said on Sunday that she could not give a timeline for clearing the streets. In Washington, the leadership of the House of Representatives — scheduled to convene on Monday for a pro forma session — said no votes would be held this week. Federal offices will be closed on Monday, as will state offices in Maryland and Virginia.

“This was a major event,” Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia said during a news conference. “I caution everybody, this is going to take a long time to clean up this snow.” He said that crews from as far away as Connecticut were on the way to help.

For officials, Sunday was a day to transition from blizzard mode to cleanup. For those with no official role to play, it was a day for sledding, snowboarding or snowshoeing — or lobbing snowballs and building snowmen. The bleak gray of Saturday — and the piercing wind that drove the snow — gave way to bright colors on Sunday, with a warm orange sun climbing across a brilliant azure sky.

Officials prepared for Monday and the start of the workweek, when a challenge would be moving commuters over rail lines stiff from the weekend’s assault of snow and punishing temperatures. New York City, where schools will be open,faced another challenge — picking up busloads of schoolchildren in streets with snowdrifts on every corner.

On Monday morning, yellow school buses struggled and hordes of parents with small children staggered, but school started on schedule in Corona, Queens, after students arrived through streets still caked in snow.

“The mayor made his decision yesterday; school is open, so I don’t want him to miss a day,” said Luis Molina, 56, a cleaner, after he hugged and kissed his son, Jason Molina, 10, who is in fourth grade at Public School 19.

The storm swirled out to sea after brushing Massachusetts, leaving behind what the National Weather Service called “copious” accumulations from Virginia to New York: 29.2 inches at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, a record; 22.4 inches at Philadelphia International Airport; and 28.1 inches at Newark Liberty International Airport. In Washington, the National Zoo reported 22.4 inches for the weekend, and other places reported totals not seen in years if not generations: 28.2 inches in Roselle Park, N.J.; 33.5 inches in Frederick, Md.; 39 inches in Philomont, Va.; and 42 inches in Glengary, W.Va.

The Weather Service recorded 26.8 inches in Central Park, missing a record by one-tenth of an inch. But Saturday’s total of 26.6 inches was a record for a single day (the other 0.2 inches fell on Friday). The one-day record beat 24.1 inches, set during a two-day storm in 2006. That storm retained its place as the city’s snowiest.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said that major roads had been cleared by Sunday afternoon, putting much of the city in a position to ease back into weekday commuting routines on Monday. Tunnels and bridges into the city, all of which had been closed during the storm, reopened on Sunday, according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Service had been suspended during the storm on the Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North Railroad, as well as the aboveground routes of the subway and on the Staten Island Railway. All started rolling again on Sunday, though some remained on reduced schedules. Buses in the city also returned to the streets...

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Digging Out in Queens and the Bronx (VIDEO)."

Digging Out in Queens and the Bronx (VIDEO)

Folks want to get back to their regular routines, like going to work, heh.

At CBS News 2 New York:

Katrina Pierson Defends Donald Trump's 'Controversial' Remarks (VIDEO)'

Following-up, "Donald Trump Says: I Could 'Shoot Somebody, and I Wouldn't Lose Any Voters...' (VIDEO)."

Ms. Pierson's on with Martha McCallum, on America's Newsroom.

Surfing and Sailing in French Polynesia (VIDEO)

That's the life, via Roxy:

We’re no strangers to the Tahitian islands and the warm, inviting Polynesian charm that inevitably draws us back time and time again. For our latest campaign shoot we rediscovered paradise amongst the spellbinding azure lagoons, lush tropical jungle and whitewashed beaches of French Polynesia.

Authorities Search Southern California for Escaped Orange County Inmates (VIDEO)

This story's getting national news coverage.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Authorities search Southern California for 3 inmates who escaped O.C. jail."

And at CBS This Morning, "Manhunt for three California prisoners after daring jailbreak."

Outsiders' Momentum Builds as Iowa Looms

So, any bets on both Trump and Sanders to win the caucuses?

At USA Today, "Political outsiders surge in Iowa in last week before caucuses":

WASHINGTON — With just a week left until the Iowa Caucus, "outsider" presidential candidates Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders appeared to be building momentum over "establishment" candidates and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hinted he might enter the race as an independent.

The influential Des Moines Register Saturday night endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in the Republican race, rejecting Trump and Sanders in favor of Rubio's  "optimism" and Clinton's experience. But Sanders held a narrow lead over Clinton in a CBS Iowa poll released Sunday. In a new Fox News poll, Trump held a sizable lead over Cruz with Rubio in third place; Cruz had held the lead in the same poll three weeks ago. The CBS poll showed the same top three for the Republicans.

The poll results gave new weight to a New York Times report over the weekend that Bloomberg has instructed his advisers to draw up plans for a potential presidential bid and will make a decision by early March. Bloomberg would offer himself as a moderate alternative if it appears likely that Trump or Cruz will win the GOP nomination and Sanders will become the Democratic nominee, the Times reported.

Clinton said Sunday that won't be necessary because she will ultimately win the Democratic nomination. Even if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire — where he is ahead in polls — Clinton's campaign believes she has the advantage in other early primary states such as South Carolina and Nevada, where her strong support among African American and Latino voters could help her prevail.

"The way I read what he (Bloomberg) said is if I didn’t get the nomination, he might consider it," Clinton said on NBC’s Meet the Press. "Well, I’m going to relieve him of that and get the nomination so he doesn’t have to (run)."

The candidates are continuing to converge on Iowa between now and the Feb. 1 caucus day. Candidates from both parties have scheduled a total of nearly 100 campaign appearances in the state over the next week, according to a list compiled by the Des Moines Register. Republicans will also hold another debate Thursday in Des Moines, hosted by Fox News.

Sanders, a Democratic Socialist who often rails against the wealth and power of the top 1%, said he would welcome the prospect of facing two billionaires if Trump wins the GOP nomination and Bloomberg enters the race.

"I think the American people do not want to see our nation move toward an oligarchy, where billionaires control the political process," Sanders said on Meet the Press. "I think we’ll win that election."

While Trump and Cruz battle it out for the conservative wing of the GOP, Rubio was working to position himself as a more mainstream alternative...

Still more.

And if Bloomberg enters the race regardless...

Geert Wilders Hands Out Self-Defense Sprays Against 'Islamic Testosterone Bombs' (VIDEO)

He's been sounding the tocsin for years.

Via Euronews:

Fox News Poll: 28 Percent of Those Who've Caucused Before Favor Donald Trump; 25 Percent Ted Cruz (VIDEO)

But 43 percent of those who've never caucused favor Trump, versus 19 percent for Cruz --- so the whole thing's going to boil down to turnout. If the Trump campaign's really ramped up the ground game, the betting odds favor a win for the Manhattan real estate billionaire, according to the Fox News pundits.

This is so crazy, heh.

Here's the video, featuring Harris Faulkner, Pat Caddell, Ed Rollins, and Douglas Schoen.

And click through on Twitter, "Fox News Poll: Trump gains in Iowa, still dominates in New Hampshire."