Why Mitt Romney Will Win the Nomination

Well, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion --- I'd rather wait until after Super Tuesday before projecting a winner.

But Ben Shapiro makes the case for Romney anyways, at Big Government:

Rick Santorum is surging in national polling.  As Ed Morrissey notes, in a two-man race, Santorum beats Mitt Romney among Republicans by a sweeping 55% to 34% margin.  In other words, ouch.

But while many pundits suggest that Santorum has a real chance to win the nomination, so long as Newt Gingrich stays in the race, that seems increasingly unlikely.  Romney currently leads the delegate count by a count of 123 to 72; Newt Gingrich has 32 delegates, and Ron Paul has 19.  Santorum isn’t on the ballot in Virginia (49), or more crucially, in Indiana (46), which is a winner-take-all state.  The other winner-take-all states are Arizona (29, and presumably a Romney win), Michigan (30, for Santorum), Puerto Rico (23, likely to go Romney), Maryland (37, likely Romney), Washington, D.C. (19, Romney), Wisconsin (42, a toss-up, but probably Romney), Delaware (17, Romney), California (172, a toss-up, but likely Santorum), Utah (40, Romney).  When you count all that up, Romney picks up 302 delegates to Santorum’s 202.  If Romney wins California, of course, he blows Santorum out of the water.

What we’re looking at, then is a presumptive lead for Romney of 151 delegates.  In the other, proportional states, Romney just needs to run relatively even with Santorum – which he will, since he has large leads in some of the most populous states, like New York and Massachusetts.

More at the link.

RELATED: From Jonathan Chait, at New York Magazine, "Is Romney More Electable Than Santorum?"