Measly Poll Bounce for Obama Upon Securing Nomination

Jackie Calmes provides a balanced analysis of the Wall Street Journal's new poll finding Barack Obama with a six-point lead against John McCain in a general election matchup:

Democrat Barack Obama begins his presidential race against Republican John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's party.

Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll in late April . The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than Democrats' 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked which party they want to win the White House, without candidates' names.

The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.

But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white-male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white women, particularly suburbanites, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive.

Memeorandum highlights additional polls out today, and of particular interest is this tidbit from Mark Murray's write-up of the WSJ data:

Looking at the issues that will drive the presidential race, respondents in the poll cite job creation/economic growth and the Iraq war as the top priorities for the federal government to address.

That is, the economy and Iraq are the top issues going forward, and I would argue that McCain will have a much better time making inroads with insecure econonomic voters than Obama will have in convincing Americans that we're losing the war. The public's conflicted on the economy, for example, as Market Watch reports:

While voters say we want government to act to boost the economy, a solid majority of us say the best thing government can do is to get out of the way by reducing regulations and taxes, just like McCain says.

Other recent polls continue to demonstrate no public demand for an immediate pullout, and McCain will be able to paint Obama as seeking to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as the Illinios Senator continues to pander to the antiwar base with calls for a disastrously precipitous withdrawal.

Don't forget that WSJ's survey has a 3.1 margin of error, which is another reason Democrats should call home to momma with the results.