Sunday, June 22, 2008

Poll Shows Presidential Prefences Stable

Gallup reports that the presidential horse race has stablized this week, with John McCain and Barack Obama statistically tied in voter preferences:

National registered voters' preferences for the general election remain closely divided between Democrat Barack Obama (46%) and Republican John McCain (44%).

Gallup Tracking

Gallup Poll Daily tracking for June 19-21 shows the same results Gallup reported the prior two days, with Obama holding a slight, but not statistically significant, advantage over McCain.

Obama has not trailed McCain by any margin in the last 15 Gallup Poll Daily reports (beginning with June 1-5 polling), but has only held a statistically significant advantage in less than half of these (six out of 15). His lead during this time has been as large as seven percentage points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008,
click here.)
The early horse race polls have come under a little criticism today.

Obama's been leading McCain in recent weeks, so the reminder's going out for the "Dukakis precedent." Commentators note, for example, that in June 1988, Michael Dukakis was leading George H.W. Bush by 16 percent, but by election day Bush defeated Dukakis by the same margin.

I would add as well that
Dukakis still held a 17-point lead in the polls by the Labor Day weekend, and then turned around to crash by November. The Dukakis precedent - yep, that's something to keep in mind this year.

Dukakis Tank

Photo Credit: "June Polls Don't Hold Up."