Monday, September 15, 2008

McCain Holds Historical Advantage in Current Poll Trends

Gallup's got an editorial analysis on the firm's polling trends for the presidential election:

Some aspects of Democrats' "structural" election advantage have faded in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention. Americans have become more likely to identify as Republicans than before the conventions, although Democrats retain a slight edge on this measure. The Republican Party is now seen almost as favorably as the Democratic Party. Democrats now have only a slight edge on generic ballots for Congress. A key question is whether or not these Republican gains will remain in place, or fade in the weeks after the GOP convention....

Barack Obama led John McCain by only an average of three percentage points (registered voters) for most of this summer. The two candidates ended up in a statistical tie just as the Democratic convention began. Obama then received a predictable convention "bounce" during his convention. McCain, in turn, more than matched Obama's bounce, and by ten days after the GOP convention, was maintaining a small advantage over Obama. The extent to which this slight, but meaningful, lead alters the structure of the election remains to be seen.

It's still too early to estimate election probabilities, but if McCain retains an advantage in the weeks after the conventions ended, history says that he has a better than even chance of winning the election.

There's more at the link.

The editors note that the potential impact of the current economic crisis on Wall Street is unknown at this time, if there's going to be any impact from the turmoil at all.

You can bet, in any case, that
the left will be working its hardest to milk any inkling of bad economic news they can get. Time is running out, so look for leftists to be cheering continued market instability in the days and weeks ahead.