GOP Poll Shows Sanchez and Tran Tied

At CQ Politics:

A new poll conducted for Republican Van Tran's campaign in California's 47th district indicates the race is tied and a number of voters remain up for grabs. The Republican is challenging Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez, whose re-election prospects took a hit recently because of controversial comments she made in a Spanish-language interview.

The Tran poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, found Tran and Sanchez with 39 percent each, while independent Ceci Iglesias got 5 percent and 17 percent were undecided.

"With 18 days to go, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is in the fight of her political life," Public Opinion Strategies' Rob Autry wrote in a polling memo. With 39 percent support, Sanchez is in "an extremely precarious position for an incumbent Member of Congress to be with less than three weeks to go."

The poll of 300 likely voters was conducted Oct. 13-14 and had a 5.7-point margin of error.

That's an awful small sample. Still, Tran was trailing by 2 in early September, so the new findings are probably solid, given the ongoing economic malaise. Yet Tran's campaign is badly underfunded compared to Sanchez (with limited television advertising), so that might be a critical disadvantage. Too close to call, basically. But if the GOP grassroots can really mobilize GOTV, this is definitely doable.