FiveThirtyEight’s projection for the U.S. House shows little change from last week. Republicans are given a 73 percent chance of taking over the House, up incrementally from 72 percent last week. During an average simulation run, Republicans finished with 227 seats, up from 226 last week; this would suggest a net gain of 48 seats from the 179 they hold currently.WHOA NELLY!!
However, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast because of the unusually large number of House seats now in play. A gain of as large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of the question if everything broke right for Republicans. Conversely, if Democrats managed to see a material rebound in their national standing over the final two weeks of the campaign, they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, as relatively few individual districts are certain pickups for Republicans.
I'll be stoked with a gain of 60 seats. Larry Sabato's not even that optimistic on GOP chances. But sheesh, coming from Netroots Nate, this must be just killing the Democrat fever swamps nihilists.
RELATED: At WSJ, "Democrats Retrench as GOP Pulls Away."
1 comments:
I've got an article up (shameless blog pimping here! :) ) on Mr Silver's article, approaching it from a different direction. Taking his numbers on the individual House races, only two Republican incumbents are in danger, and they are both special cases.
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