Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Gallup: Historical Comparisons Indicate Massive Obama Repudiation in November

Democrat reelection prospects are sinking steadily, so why is this man smiling?

See Gallup, "National Mood a Drag on Obama's Re-Election Prospects."

Obama Fallon
Comparing today's economic and political ratings with those from previous years when presidents sought re-election reveals that today's climate is more similar to years when incumbents lost than when they won.

Perhaps the broadest indicator of the public's mood comes from Gallup's satisfaction measure, which asks Americans if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the United States at this time." The 24% of Americans currently satisfied is most similar to the 20% recorded in May 1992 during George H.W. Bush's first and only term. Bush was also the only sitting president of the last four to lose his re-election bid.

By contrast, satisfaction was above 35% in May of 1996 and 2004, in advance of Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's re-elections. And it was 48% in September 1984, the closest time period Gallup has to May of Ronald Reagan's re-election year.

The extent of Americans' concern about the economy -- as evident in their top-of-mind mentions of it as the nation's "most important problem" -- is greater today than for any president seeking re-election since Jimmy Carter in 1980. The current 66% mentioning one or more economic concerns is substantially higher than it was in May 2004 or May 1996, and moderately higher than at the same point in 1992 and 1984. Americans' mentions of the economy did surge in August 1984 to 65% -- comparable to where they are today -- but fell to 51% by September.
More at Memeorandum.

PHOTO CREDIT: The White House Flickr page.