Monday, January 31, 2011

'Let Egypt Go to Sh*t'

That's what Eric Dondero told me today in an e-mail exchange. He blew off my argument for democracy in Egypt and said:
"Full-fledged support of Israel. Let Egypt go to shit. Threaten them. Tell them, any border crossings by the Egyptian military into southern Israel will be met with the full might and force of the US Military."
Also, at the comments from Eric's blog, Libertarian Republican:
Donald, protect Israel, and make it abundantly clear, whatever happens the United States will not tolerate a Radical Islamist regime like Muslim Brotherhood taken over.

Pressure Mubarak to step aside and let someone pro-America/pro-free enterprise take his place.

But alas, with Islamist-sympathizer Obama in the White House, the situation is just about hopeless
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I also heard from my former student Barbara Efraim. She's concerned. She wrote that "a government led by the MB can be BAD." No doubt. And Barbara's especially worried about Israel: "Netanyahu said that they need to support Mubarak, but when he leaves, the incoming government coalition will most probably be opposed to Bibi and to the U.S." Again, that's for sure. News reports indicated today that Mohamed Ghanem, a Muslim Brotherhood stooge in Egypt, has announced plans for a military campaign against Israel. So to be clear, I'm not minimizing the threat. I think the New York Times' piece last night covered the challenges extremely well. Israel Matzav links to that piece, with added discussion: "The New Middle East." And John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has been on Fox News all week warning against the Muslim Brotherhood. It's a dangerous situation.

That said, no one knows for sure what will happen. The New York Times reported earlier that Egypt's military renounced the use of force against the protesters. See, "Mubarak’s Grip on Power Is Shaken." And a million protesters are expected to take to the streets on Tuesday.

So amid all the uncertainty, I say once again: America has to stand for freedom. Stephen Hadley, former national security advisor to President George W. Bush, offered an insightful analysis at today's Wall Street Journal, "
The Two Likeliest Political Outcomes for Mubarak":
Time and a full array of political alternatives are critical in the upcoming presidential election and the parliamentary elections that undoubtedly will follow. If given an array of choices, I believe that the Egyptian people will choose a democratic future of freedom and not an Islamist future of imposed extremism. While the Muslim Brotherhood, if legalized, would certainly win seats in a new parliament, there is every likelihood that the next Egyptian government will not be a Muslim Brotherhood government but a non-Islamist one committed to building a free and democratic Egypt.

Such a government would still pose real challenges to U.S. policy in many areas. But with all eyes in the region on Egypt, it would be a good outcome nonetheless. With a large population and rich cultural heritage, Egypt has always been a leader in the Middle East. Now it has the opportunity to become what it always should have been—the leader of a movement toward freedom and democracy in the Arab world
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And see also William Kristol's latest analysis, "Obama's Opportunity: This is the 3 a.m. phone call. Will President Obama rise to the occasion?":
It’s up to President Obama to seize the moment. It’s not too late for him to do so. But the stakes are high, and the situation is urgent. Egypt’s path may be determined in the next 48 hours. President Obama can overcome all the counsels of timidity and passivity. He can take charge of his administration. He can help usher Mubarak out—his presence is now a source of instability, and the longer the showdown continues, the greater the odds of a bad outcome. He can get the U.S. engaged—to some degree publicly, but on all cylinders privately. Our ability to shape events is limited, we keep on being told. That’s true—but we don’t know how much we can do until we try. And what’s the downside? We can’t bring back the status quo ante.
I too think that the Egyptian people will ultimately choose freedom, and the biggest threat to stability in the region is the Obama administration's amateurism. Support the Egyptian democracy. Change will be messy, and even dangerous, but it will be honest and we'll deal with the consequences. I won't tell the Egyptian people to "go eat sh*t."

4 comments:

rsm said...

nice wishful american thinking. better get acquainted with islamism in egyptian society: http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/

Donald Douglas said...

RSM: The protests have been anti-Mubarak, not anti-American. I know the polls on support for the Islamists, and I know the hatred of Israel. But the population will turn against terror and jihad. It will take time, and there are dangers in the short term. The left wants a Red-Green dictatorship, and I bet you do as well.

dave in boca said...

The Everest-sized obstacle to the US & Mubarak cooperating or co-habitating with the Ikhwan remains the MuslimB’s rejection of the Camp David Accords. Other long-standing MB positions based on religious rather than political beliefs are significant speed bumps, as in MB’s policy toward the Coptic Christians, women’s rights, the application of shari’a in a constitutional context and which school of shari’a thought would be applied.

And what about international conventions Egypt has signed concerning racial discrimination [1967], discrimination against women [1981], civil and political rights [1982], economic, social and cultural rights [1982], elimination of torture and other cruel and degrading treatment [1986], rights of the child [1990]. Of course, the current Mubarak regime often fails to observe many of these conventions, but the MB would be examined much more closely, perhaps, for infractions than Mubarak.

Egypt is far more civilized than Iran as a culture, in many ways, and less amenable to the MB than the Iranians were to the putsch by Khomeini and other religious terrorists. The Ikhwan would have to pull in their horns, particularly on Israel, to qualify for membership in a Suleiman/PopularFront type solution. In the last 'legal' elections in '05, the MB got 20% of the votes of the 20% of registered voters who EVEN BOTHERED TO VOTE. So much for democracy in Egypt. And MB's pppularity.

rsm said...

Donald, here are some recent tweets from the protestors:

@MajorB317 That's why America and Israel is nervous cuz they know the power of the Muslims when they unite under sharia

@bloggerseif "No america, no mubarak, no israel!" #Jan25


@Falasteeni The roar coming from Tahrir Square is the sound of Israel's foundations crumbling #jan25

what makes you so sure the population will turn against terror? did it happen in the case of iran, lebanon or the PA? it's a narcissistic dream left over from the bush era