Obama's One Term Presidency

I wrote yesterday morning that things were "not looking good for Obama and the Democrats." The thought came to me in a flash as I looked over the economic news. If Barack Obama's anything, it's a good campaigner, and hence I've been reluctant to bet against his reelection. But with folks talking about a double dip recession, and with unemployment likely to remain high regardless of economic growth rates, I think the GOP's chances are looking better than ever. Barack Obama will be a one-term president, I'm confident. And apparently, so are others, or at least there's some pessimism in the MSM that I don't recall seeing. At Politico, for example, "Obama's big drags":

The politics of the debt fight were a drag for President Barack Obama, yanking his popularity to new lows. Here’s an even bigger drag: Obama emerges from the months-long fracas weaker — and facing much deeper and more durable political obstacles — than his own advisers ever imagined.

The consensus has been that for all his problems, Obama is so skilled a politician — and the eventual GOP nominee so flawed or hapless — that he’d most likely be reelected.

Don’t buy into it.

This breezy certitude fails to reckon with how weak his fundamentals are a year out from the general election. Gallup pegs his approval rating at a discouraging 42 percent, with his standing among independents falling 9 points in four weeks.

His economic stats are even worse. The nation has 2.5 million fewer jobs today than the day Obama took office, a fact you’re sure to hear the Republicans repeat. Consumer confidence is scraping levels not seen since March 2009.

Where’s the bright spot? Hard to see. Obama has few, if any, domestic achievements that enjoy broad public support. No one assumes employment, growth or housing prices to pick up much, if at all — something Obama is essentially powerless to change. And the political environment and electoral map are significantly tougher than in 2008, especially in true up-for-grabs states.

It's long piece. Continue at the link.

RELATED: FWIW, see Andrew Hacker at New York Review, "The Next Election: The Surprising Reality." According to Hacker, "Although it is never openly stated, there are Americans who don’t want to be governed by a black man." (Racism, wouldn't you know?) Beyond that (as part of a book review), Hacker's main argument is about turnout: Obama's toast if he can't generate the kind of voter (and youth) enthusiasm that propelled him to victory in 2008. And if that's the case, I'm even more confident Obama's a one-termer. ("Hope & Change hasn't been all that great for young folks.)