Democrats Have Huge Advantage, While McCain Stays Close

Today's Wall Street Journal reports on new polling data finding the Republican Party at record lows, although John McCain manages to do well in public approval.

The survey paints a picture of tremendous Democratic opportunity in the country, with an electorate evincing a record-setting hunger for change. Yet the party's reputation has slid down the gully amid the divisive mudslinging of the prolonged primary battle.

It's going to be close in November:

Only 27% of voters have positive views of the Republican Party, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the lowest level for either party in the survey's nearly two-decade history.

Yet the party's probable presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, continues to run nearly even with Democratic rivals Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. His standing so far makes for a more competitive race for the White House than would be expected for Republicans, who face an electorate that overwhelmingly believes the country is headed in the wrong direction under President Bush.

"The nearly unprecedented negative mood of the country is presenting significant challenges this year for other Republican candidates," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the poll with Democrat Peter Hart.

President Bush reached new lows in his eighth and final year, with 27% approving of his overall job performance, and 21% his handling of the weakened economy. An unprecedented 73% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track; only 15% say it is going in the right direction.

The numbers show an electorate more disenchanted than in the fall of 1992, the previous low in the Journal poll -- sentiments that led to the ouster of President Bush's father.

A majority of voters now say they want Democrats to re-capture the White House again, a finding that makes Sen. McCain's position remarkable: He's in a statistical dead-heat against either Democrat in the poll. Sen. Obama, the Democratic front-runner, leads Sen. McCain 46% to 43%, and Sen. Clinton has a 45% to 44% edge over the Republican. A big reason for the closeness: More voters said they could identify with Sen. McCain's "background" and "values" than with those of either of the Democratic contenders.

Both point spreads are within the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error. The survey of 1,006 registered voters was conducted April 25-28.

The poll also shows that the prolonged battling between Sens. Obama and Clinton could make it difficult for the ultimate nominee to unite the party. Both candidates have been bloodied, though Sen. Obama, who previously has enjoyed much higher personal ratings than Sen. Clinton, has sustained more damage. The Illinois senator has struggled over the past month with a series of controversies, including his association with an outspoken Chicago pastor and comments about small-town voters that have been portrayed as elitist.

Representatives for the two Democrats declined to comment.

Voters, by 44% to 32%, hold positive feelings toward the Democratic Party. By a 15-point margin, 49% to 34%, voters say they want Democrats to keep control of Congress. Swing voters -- the one-third of the electorate that will decide the elections -- are even more hostile toward the Republican Party than voters overall, and identify by more than 2-to-1 with Democrats.

Sen. McCain's current political viability contrasts with that of his party. It underscores the extent to which his personality and image, rather than issues such as the war and the economy, could shape this presidential election.

House Republican Leader John Boehner on Wednesday convened party colleagues behind closed doors for a PowerPoint presentation entitled, "Why We Can Win." Central to the Ohio congressman's case was his argument that other Republicans on the ballot would benefit from Sen. McCain's appeal among independents and moderate Democrats.

But party strategists say other Republicans can't count on riding Sen. McCain's coattails. As the poll indicates, Sen. McCain's status with voters rests largely on personal traits and on his long-cultivated reputation for independence from his party, suggesting an appeal that isn't easily transferred.

Sen. McCain's appeal could fade, the poll suggests. As Sen. McCain has reached out to suspicious conservatives to unite his party behind his candidacy, and become more partisan as its presumptive nominee, his popularity among voters already has eroded some. In two Journal/NBC polls in March, the share of voters with positive views was 20 points greater than for those with negative views. That margin was halved to 10 points in the current poll, with 40% positive and 30% negative.

Also, 43% say they have "major concerns" that Sen. McCain "will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda." His vulnerability to the Bush link is one that Democrats already are exploiting, with near-daily attacks from the national party suggesting a McCain administration would amount to a third Bush term.

Just 16% cited Sen. McCain's age as a major concern. The Arizona senator will be 72 years old by election day.

Not mentioned is the key fact that campaigns make a difference!

McCain's the consummate campaigner. He routinely deflects questions about his age by saying "I'll out-campaign 'em all"!

McCain's also highly respected for his service to country, and he's refused to sling the mud thus far, which helps him maintain his air of above-it-all compromise - an electoral asset among political independents this year.

See also, the New York Times' survey on Obama's difficulties, "Loss and Furor Take Toll on Obama, Poll Finds."