A loss in the Hoosier State will sink her significant claims to winning the heartland, and combined with a Barack Obama victory in North Carolina, the political momentum will once again have shifted from one campaign to the other.
Yet a win in Indiana gives Clinton a powerful reason to continue in the race, even though the math in the delegate race is not in her favor, and even though the superdelegates are most likely to abide by the wishes of the popular votes in the states.
U.S. News and World Report has an overview of the state's primary:
The New York Times has an interesting story on these so-called "Obamicans":It's the kind of political hullabaloo the Hoosiers haven't seen up close in 40 years. In the days leading up to Indiana's primary on Tuesday, the presidential candidates have bombarded the state. They've dominated Indiana's airwaves, they've showed up at Indiana's gas stations gasping at the high prices, and they've sat on Indiana's picnic tables and listened to the Hoosiers' qualms.
The state hasn't held an important Democratic primary since Bobby Kennedy was running for the presidency in 1968, and it has been so reliably red in general elections that candidates seldom stop in. But this time around, Indiana is playing the role of political barometer. It is seen as one of the last states where Hillary Clinton's campaign can boast that the tide is turning in her direction or Barack Obama's campaign can claim that this nomination is all but wrapped up. Indiana has become not necessarily a must-win (neither campaign will go that far) but a should-win in order for either candidate to clinch the nomination.
Last week an Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll had Obama 3 points ahead of Clinton, but that was before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy resurfaced. In a Rasmussen poll that came out Thursday (after Wright's inflammatory remarks and Obama's strong words denouncing the pastor), Clinton had pulled ahead of Obama by 5 points, and in a Zogby poll out Friday, the two candidates were tied. And in all of these polls, 9 percent or more have said that they are still undecided....
There are some factors that differentiate Indiana from the primary in Pennsylvania, where Clinton pummeled Obama by 9 points in April. Indiana's population is slightly younger—which could help Obama, who has done well with younger Democrats,—but it's also slightly more rural and white, which could give Clinton a boost. "What seems to be the pattern is that she will do better downstate," says Edward Carmines, a professor of political science at Indiana University-Bloomington. "And he will do better in the western and northern part that borders Illinois." There are about equal pockets of support coming from different areas of Indiana....The big wild card could be that independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in Indiana's Democratic primary. "In Indiana you have an open primary, which really lets the flood gates open," says Selzer. In the Indianapolis Star poll, Democrats favored Obama and Clinton evenly, but both Republicans and independents favored Obama by 10 points. "It is really the independents and some crossover Republicans who are giving Obama a lead," says Selzer. "There is a dead tie among Democrats."
It'll all be speculation until Tuesday, when Hoosiers will be joined by voters in North Carolina to make the big presidential pick. North Carolina has long been considered Obama territory, though Clinton has recently trimmed his lead. In Indiana, it will take hefty voter turnout, and probably some help from independents and "Obamicans," for the Hoosier State to turn into Obama territory too.
Until now, Shirley Morgan had always been the kind of voter the Republican Party thought it could count on. She comes from a family of staunch Republicans, has a son in the military and has supported Republican presidential candidates ever since she cast her first ballot, for Richard M. Nixon in 1972.About 5 percent of voters in Pennsylvania were Republicans who switched parties, and these people split their votes evenly between the two Democratic candidates.
But this year Mrs. Morgan exemplifies a different breed: the Republican crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary. Not only will she mark her ballot for Senator Barack Obama in the May 6 primary here, but she has also been canvassing for him in the heavily Republican suburbs of Hamilton County, just north of Indianapolis — the first time she has ever actively campaigned for a candidate.
“I used to like John McCain, but he’s aligning himself too closely with what Bush did, and that’s just not what I want for this country,” Mrs. Morgan, who is 56, said when asked to explain her rejection of the presumptive Republican nominee.
Since the start of the primary and caucus season in January, Republican voters have been crossing over in increasing numbers to vote in Democratic contests — supplying up to 10 percent of the vote in states that allow such crossover voting — and they are expected to play a pivotal role in the fiercely contested primary here. What is less clear, however, is the motivation for their behavior: are they genuinely attracted by the two Democratic candidates? Or are they mischief-making spoilers, looking to prolong a divisive Democratic fight or support a candidate Mr. McCain can beat in November?
Local Republican Party leaders in Indiana concede the attraction of the Democratic candidates to some of their party members. And interviews with roughly a dozen Republican voters in central Indiana suggest that they are driven mainly by concerns about the economy, with discontent over Bush administration policies driving their involvement in the Democratic race.
“Much as I like John McCain as a war hero, I am fearful he does not have the depth of experience to fix the economy,” said Darlene Boatman, 62, a just-retired sales clerk who favors Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. “We’re all struggling here to make ends meet. I haven’t had health care coverage in about 10 years and jobs are fewer and farther between. The economy is my biggest concern, and I think Hillary has the best understanding of how to pull off the recovery we need.”
People who're leaving the GOP must be facing some rough times, or these are moderate Republican likely to go which way the wind blows when the chips are down.
As I noted last night, the policies on the Democratic side look increasingly neo-socialist, for example with Barack Obama's proposed $15 billion windfall tax on oil profits. So it's not as though former-GOPers are leaning over to some centrist Democrats.
If a Democrat wins the White House, either Clinton or Obama, public policy will move in a radically new direction.
I'd prefer Hillary Clinton if push came to shove, though I dread the thought of the Republicans falling completely out of power.
The Gallup poll, in a survey of Republican preferences in the Democratic primary, finds GOP voters evenly split betweeen Clinton and Obama:
With the Republican nomination long since settled, whom would the GOP faithful rather see John McCain take on in the fall campaign? According to the April 18-20 USA Today/Gallup poll, Republicans -- like Democrats -- are divided in their preferences, with 48% saying they would rather see Hillary Clinton win the Democratic nomination and 44% Barack Obama.
Given the ongoing attention to the Democratic nomination campaign in the news media and on talk shows, Republicans have competing motivations for deciding whom they would rather see McCain compete against in the general election. Some have more serious concerns about one of the two Democratic candidates possibly being elected than the other, and thus would rather see the "lesser of two evils" emerge as the nominee. Others are more strategic in their preferences, and regardless of how they feel about the two Democrats, want the outcome to be settled in a way that gives the GOP the best chance of winning in November. In other words, they would rather see the Democrats nominate the candidate they think McCain would have an easier time defeating, even if that candidate is the one they would least like to see as the next president.
In my case, I think Obama as the nominee will give McCain a powerful target to portray the Democrats as mired in '60s-era radicalism and Carter-esque appeasement in foreign policy (on this, see "Polls Show Obama Struggling to ‘Close the Deal’").
While Hillary Clinton has her history of far-left wing politics, there's something in Clinton's mein that's more Machiavellian, more realist, and hence more suited to the centrism demanded of the nation's highest office and America's role in the world.
At some deep level, though, Obama's dream campaign may continue on, capturing the genuine feelings of the people for a new direction in America.
To where the nation will go is anyone's guess, and I for one am not like these other "Obamicans" in some willingness to throw caution to the wind.
Photo Credit: "Melissa Achtien, a Republican, canvassing for Senator Barack Obama in Fishers, Ind., ahead of next week’s Democratic primary, in which she plans to vote," New York Times
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