Clinton Comeback May Still Fall Short of Nomination

Although Hillary Clinton's speaking of next Tuesday's primaries as "gamechangers,"the New York Senator still faces tremendous hurdles in securing the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. The New York Times reports:

Have Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination improved as Senator Barack Obama has struggled through his toughest month of this campaign?

After weeks in which her candidacy was seen by many party leaders as a long shot at best, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers argued strenuously on Thursday that the answer was most assuredly yes, that the outlook was turning in her favor in a way that gave her a real chance.

Still, despite a series of trials that have put Mr. Obama on the defensive and illustrated the burdens he might carry in a fall campaign, the Obama campaign is rolling along, leaving Mrs. Clinton with dwindling options.

Mr. Obama continues to pick up the support of superdelegates — elected Democrats and party leaders — at a quicker pace than Mrs. Clinton.

On Thursday, he got a boost from a high-profile defection: Joe Andrew, a former Democratic national chairman appointed by former President Bill Clinton, said he had changed his mind and would back Mr. Obama. Even after Mrs. Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama has held on to a solid lead in pledged delegates, those selected by the voting in primaries and caucuses.

Although Mrs. Clinton has cut into Mr. Obama’s popular vote lead, it would be difficult for her to overtake him without counting the disputed results in Florida and perhaps Michigan.

By and large, the group that matters most at this point — the uncommitted superdelegates, who are likely to hold the balance of power — still seem to view their decision the way the Obama campaign would like them to see it. They suggest that they are more sympathetic to the argument that they should follow the will of the voters as expressed by the delegates amassed by the candidates when the primary season is done rather than following Mrs. Clinton’s admonitions to select the candidate they think would best be able to defeat Senator John McCain and the Republicans in November.

I touched on the possibility of a convention floor fight last weekend, noting how political scientists suggest some possibility for Clinton to sway party elites to her side.

Over 400 delegates are up for grabs in the eight remaining caucuses and primaries, and nearly 300 superdelegates remain uncommitted.

See the New York Times' graphic, "Paths to Victory," for more information.

No matter who wins the Democratic nomination, there's growing evidence that the long primary battle has damaged the party's image. See Gallup's new survey, "Is Ongoing Democratic Campaign Good or Bad for the Party?"

Photo Credit: New York Times