Has Wright Hurt Obama?

There's some controversy as to whether Jeremiah Wright has hurt Barack Obama politcally.

In an earlier post, "Indiana for Hillary Clinton!," I cited ABC News polling data suggesting Wright had a significant effect on Democratic primary voters, with Clinton winning those swayed by Wright by 70-30 percent over Obama.

Note that some political science analysis, from the pre-Indiana period, suggests Obama hasn't really been damaged by the Wright fallout. The Monkey Cage offers this interesting graphic:

The chart provides some visual, data-plotting evidence showing how the ups and downs of the Wright scandal, "Bittergate," the flag lapel issue, and so forth, have had little effect on vote choice in earlier Democratic primaries.

Of course, Indiana and North Carolina broke pretty much along racial lines, with Obama emerging as the candidate of black Americans:

Race again played a pivotal role in Tuesday's Democratic presidential clashes, as whites in Indiana and North Carolina leaned solidly toward Hillary Rodham Clinton and blacks voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, exit polls showed. Almost half the voters said they were influenced by the focus on Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Obama, the Illinois senator battling to become the first black president, again failed to make an appreciable dent in a crucial voting bloc that has consistently eluded him – working-class whites. But he was piecing together a coalition that besides blacks included the young, first-time primary voters, the very liberal and college graduates.

According to preliminary results from the Indiana exit polls and final data from North Carolina, about two-thirds of whites in both states who have not completed college were supporting Clinton, which the New York senator could use to fortify her argument that she would be the stronger Democratic candidate in the November general election. Of 28 states that have held primaries in which she and Obama competed before Tuesday, Clinton had prevailed with working-class white voters in 25.

Wright was a looming factor in the voting, with nearly half in each state saying he was important in choosing a candidate. Of that group, seven in 10 in Indiana and six in 10 in North Carolina backed Clinton.

Those discounting him as a factor heavily favored Obama. In North Carolina, Obama got more votes from people saying they discounted the Wright episode than Clinton got from those affected by it, while in Indiana the two groups were about equal in size.

Among whites, eight in 10 in both states who said Wright affected their choice went with Clinton. That was well above the six in 10 whites overall who supported her.

In both states, two-thirds of Clinton's white voters said Wright was important. That compared to eight in 10 white Obama supporters who said Wright was not a factor.

Note though, as I said in my earlier post, that Obama's clearly evincing some liabilities with white working class constituencies:

These numbers will continue to weigh over Obama's head, as he increasingly looks to win the coastal elites in Boston and San Francisco, while becoming increasingly vulnerable to a general election rout to the GOP as large numbers of Democrats defect from Obama's shady socialist sham of post-partisan appeal.

Polling data do support these points. For example, USA Today offered this analysis from polling data earler this week:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

Fox News offered a polling analysis after Wright was in the news recently:

As the Rev. Jeremiah Wright travels around the country on a speaking tour and as Sen. Barack Obama tries to distance himself from the controversial pastor, Americans are making some harsh judgments on Wright’s message, according to the latest FOX News poll.

On the surface, a majority of Americans (52 percent) says they care very little or not at all about the relationship between Obama and Wright, and four in 10 say that relationship would have no impact on their vote; however, a look below the surface shows how much this issue is influencing the presidential race.

Those disinclined to vote for the Illinois senator based on his ties to Wright (44 percent) outweigh those who would be inclined to vote for him (12 percent) by a wide margin. While the margin is somewhat closer among Democrats (36 percent disinclined; 16 inclined), the toll on Obama is still quite severe.

And, despite that the bulk of independent voters (49 percent) says the issue would make no difference to their vote, the lessened likelihood to vote for Obama outpaces greater likelihood by a nearly 8-to-1 margin (39 percent to 5 percent).

Finally, Hillary's favored to win Tuesday's primary in West Virginia, where just 3.3 percent of the state population is black - thus the vote breakdown in the Mountain State will further clarify the nature of Obama's weaknesses with white working class constituencies.

See also, "Polls split on effect of Wright on Obama."