Obama Hails Progress in Afghanistan, Doubts Remain

At LAT, "Uncertainty marks White House review on Afghanistan, Pakistan":

A review of President Obama's war strategy cites progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but leaves until later the answers to questions that have plagued the U.S. effort since Obama dispatched additional troops last year.

The review unveiled by the president and his top advisors at the White House on Thursday sheds little new light on major questions such as how soon Afghan forces will be able assume more responsibility for security, and whether international troops can effectively choke off access from insurgent sanctuaries in Pakistan.

The reason is that the answers are largely still in doubt.

A five-page summary of the review's findings released by the White House concludes that the "strategy is showing progress," especially against Al Qaeda in Pakistan, and is "setting the conditions to begin a responsible reduction of U.S. forces in July 2011," the date previously set by Obama for beginning withdrawals.

But an undercurrent of uncertainty runs throughout the assessment. "I want to be clear, this continues to be a very difficult endeavor," Obama told reporters at the White House, even as he declared, "We are on track to achieve our goals."

Being on track is not the same as being confident in the outcome. Every mention of indications of progress is accompanied in the report by a caveat noting that the gains are "fragile" and "reversible."

The review seems to keep alive the possibility that the administration could shift strategy next year if isolated gains cannot be cemented despite the presence of nearly 100,000 U.S. troops.

Since ordering 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan a year ago, Obama has moved repeatedly to deepen the U.S. involvement, most recently at the NATO Lisbon summit in November, when he signed on to a timetable that would delay turning over lead security responsibility to the Afghan army and police until 2014.

In that sense, Obama has seemed to side with Gen. David H. Petraeus, his top commander in Afghanistan, as well as some of the president's senior civilian advisors. They suggest that large-scale troop reductions will not be possible for years because Afghan forces remain unable to take over. The White House has emphasized that the pace of the withdrawals next July will be dependent on conditions at the time.

More at the link.