California Voters Sharply Divided on Gay Marriage

A new survey from the Field Research Corporation finds Californians deeply split on same-sex marriage and Proposition 8, which if upheld by the California Supreme Court will define marriage in the state as between one man and one woman. According to the poll:

The latest statewide Field Poll conducted February 20 ... asked voters how they would react if a new constitutional amendment were placed on the ballot to allow same-sex marriages in the state.

The results reveal a voting public that remains sharply divided both overall and across political, demographic and regional lines. If a new constitutional amendment about same-sex marriage qualified for the ballot, 48% of the state’s registered voters say they would vote Yes to permit such marriages, 47% would vote No to oppose them and 5% are undecided.

As was true with regard to the vote on Prop. 8 last year, there are large differences in voter preferences by party, political ideology, age, marital status, gender, religion and region of residence.

The San Francisco Chronicle has an analysis of the survey, "Field Poll Finds Voters Still Split on Marriage."

Most observers expect the Court to sustain the will of the voters, and hence activists on both sides of the issue are gearing up for the next round of electoral politics.

National Journal has a recent piece on the controversy, "Proposition 8's Embers Smolder" (behind a subscription firewall), and this passage from the conclusion provides an excellent glimpse into the ideological thinking of the left's gay marriage activists:

Gay-marriage opponents say that this fight would go away if homosexuals would be satisfied with civil unions. Such unions have been offered as a compromise in California and other states, Maggie Gallagher said, but gay-rights advocates increasingly oppose them as an apartheid-like demotion of gay and lesbian relationships. This rejection, she said, is a predictable consequence of the effort to apply the “bigot” label in law to those who see child-rearing at the center of marriage. “This leads not to live-and-let-live tolerance, which is most people’s goal, but the use of the law to repress people’s views and to marginalize people who disagree with you ... in a zero-sum clash,” Gallagher insisted.

“The word ‘marriage’ needs to be used to describe all relationships of two people who are loving and committed to each other,” countered [activist Sara Beth Brooks] Brooks. “To deny that semantic attachment to our relationships is the exact same thing as denying an African-American person the right to attend the same schools as a white person.” “I could support some version of partnership benefits, but not if they’re going to endanger marriage,” Gallagher replied. “I don’t know how you persuade young men and young women that children need a mother and a father if that idea is viewed as racist.”

I have written much about this. Gay activists will not be content with a compromise on civil unions (such as that offered by Blankenhorn and Rauch) because the fight for gay marriage constitutes a larger struggle of existential symbolism: Nothing less than full marriage equality will be found acceptable for a rights group that is perceived to still face pernicious social stigmas posing even more entrenched barriers to inclusion than those faced by previously disadvantaged groups.

See my recent essay for more on this, ""No Faggots, Dykes or Trannies"?", for a taste of both the vitriol and the hypocrisy on the issue emanating from the left.

As for the poll numbers, we'll likely see similar findings in upcoming polls, but a lot depends on question wording as well as the quality of the sample. When gay marriage hits the ballot box again, say, in 2010 or 2012, the strength of the respective "ground games" may decide the race. But as I've noted many times here, if the hard-left activists become increasingly and outwardly belligerent toward people of faith and tradition (which is highly likely), a significant backlash may shift some of the polling numbers in the direction of social conservatism.