Sunday, December 20, 2009

Hillary Clinton in 2016?

I've been suggesting this very scenario to students during lectures. There's an especially compelling case in the event of a one-term Obama presidency. From the Telegraph UK, "Smart Money is on Hillary Clinton for 2016":
Driving past the White House the other day, my eye was caught by the bumper sticker on the shiny black Toyota Prius in front of me. It read: "We love you Hillary - Clinton for President, 2016".

A year ago, I'd have snorted at the slogan and kept my distance from the vehicle - judging the driver to be a delusional Clintonite diehard still desperately fighting the reality that the former First Lady's presidential aspirations were history.

Now, the person behind that wheel seems to be on the money. Having elected Barack Obama amid near national euphoria, America is experiencing something akin to buyer's remorse.

Obama's popularity is the lowest of any American president at the end of his first year in office since polling began. Yet as his approval ratings have nose-dived, those of his Secretary of State have curved elegantly upwards.

A recent poll by the Clarus Research Group found that Hillary Clinton had a 75 per cent approval rating compared to 51 per cent for the man who defeated her in their epic battle for the Democratic nomination.

These are very early days to handicap 2016 but it's already clear that she has gone from being the supposedly inevitable 2008 nominee who had blown her one big chance as odds-on favourite to be the next Democratic president.

When Mrs Clinton accepted the job of Secretary of State many of her supporters feared she was falling into a trap. Fearing that she could be a rival source of power from Capitol Hill, Obama calculated she would be less of a threat if he brought her inside his tent.

The downsides for the former First Lady were obvious. She would give up her cherished seat as Senator for New York, which gave her an independent power base. Her voice on domestic policy would be silenced.

And her fortunes would inevitably be linked to the man whom she fervently believed was not up to the top job.

It is a sign of Mrs Clinton's astuteness that she said yes and now finds herself ideally placed to succeed Mr Obama or, in the increasingly plausible scenario that he becomes a one-term president, the Republican who ousts him in 2012.
More at the link.

2016 is a long way off. I'm more interested in "ousting Obama in 2012, and totally confident's the Dems will be beaten, and badly. It's going to start in 2010, in fact. 1994 redux. We'll worry about HRC later.


Bloviating Zeppelin said...

To me it is clear that, for too many reasons to be listed here, Mr Obama is an obvious one-termer.


AmPowerBlog said...

I think so, BZ!

Hugh Shevlin said...

I think Hillary Clinton would be a better President for 2012.