Thursday, December 31, 2009

Republicans Poised for Strong Comeback in 2010

This is something I've been feeling in my bones for sometime, but especially after the November 2009 elections. From the Los Angeles Times, "GOP Poised for Comeback in Midterm Elections":

After losing the White House and nearly 70 congressional seats in the last two elections, Republicans are poised for a strong comeback in 2010, with significant gains likely in the House and a good chance of boosting their numbers in the Senate and statehouses across the country.

The results could hamper President Obama's legislative efforts as he prepares to seek reelection and reshape the political landscape for a decade beyond, as lawmakers redraw congressional and state political boundaries to reflect the next census.

All 435 House seats, 36 in the Senate and the governorships of 37 states will be on the ballot in November. Democrats are favored to retain the Massachusetts seat of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in a special election Jan. 19.

Some of the Democrats' most prominent figures, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, are in serious danger as they seek reelection. Both would probably lose if elections were held today.

"It all adds up to a pretty bad year for the party in power," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "How bad? I'm not sure we know yet."

However, for all Republicans stand to gain, the party still has problems. Polls show that many voters, though unhappy with Democrats, are even less enamored of the GOP.

Steve Pearce, a former three-term Republican congressman, criticizes both parties as he campaigns for his old House seat in New Mexico, saying the explosion in spending under President George W. Bush has only gotten worse under Obama. "Both parties tend to get there and forget who they were and begin to talk differently than they do here," Pearce recently told a gathering of the Chaves County Republican Women in Roswell.

One big question is whether the GOP can capitalize on the free-floating hostility embodied by the anti-incumbent "tea party" movement to seize back control of Congress, four years after Democrats won power. Republicans need to win 40 House seats and 11 in the Senate -- which, for now, seems unlikely.
I personally don't expect majority control to flip to the Republcans next year. That is, not in the House. Forty seats is a huge margin, and actually despite all the glum talk for the Democrats, I think it's going to be anti-incumbent more than anything. That's why what happens with the tea parties is so crucial. Democrats fear the protesters so much that they haven't gotten past demonizing them as "teabaggers." Republicans desperately want to coopt the tea party populism for their own ends, more electoral than policy. We have too many Republicans who diss the grassroots as fringe, for example, the RNC and folks like Newt Gingrich. But if it's one thing I've learned with all of my activism this year, tea party patriots, are in no mood to compromise on principles, and frankly, they'll mobilize in even greater numbers in the months leading up to the 2010 midterms.

Read the rest of
the article, in any case.


Reaganite Republican said...

The Dems face annihilation in 2010, IMHO- and won't be trusted with the purse strings again for decades, if ever.

ObamaCare is still far from a done-deal, and regardless the political damage is done.

Cap-n-tax? With the evidence looking weak lately, Obama’s own #s tanking… and 11% unemployment? Small wonder Dems are asking him to 86 the bill already.

The only major legislation enacted then would be the wholly-ineffective Porkulus. Obama has NO political cover on that one, due to the paucity of GOP collaborators- he owns it.All it will ever stimulate is inflation… in the months leading right-up to midterms.

The Democrats look to face a bloodbath next fall, with some like Dick Morris predicting a 100+ seat loss on the Hill.

By 2012, most people will wince at the very mention of the name “Obama”- and the GOP could take 40 states running Gilbert Gottfried-

Party’s over kiddies- time to put the grown-ups back in charge...

Anonymous said...

"Party’s over kiddies- time to put the grown-ups back in charge" - Reaganite Republican

@ Reaganite: This is the same blind overconfidence that led to landslide defeats in 2006 and 2008. Just ask Karl "I have THE math" Rove.

Dems were the same way after 1994. They thought they were entitled to be in power and that the public would just hand it back, no questions asked. And I would be VERY careful trying to predict 2012! Obama is hugely popular with his base, the tea parties have had no effect on their support for him and he'll have incumbency on his side.