The Backlash Against Beltway Incumbency

Michelle's got a great piece up, "The anti-Stupak Express — and the backlash against Beltway incumbency":

If Democrat Rep. Bart Stupak, who sold his Obamacare vote and his pro-life principles for a cheap piece of paper, thinks voters in Michigan are willing to forgive and forget, he’s sadly mistaken.

The Tea Party Express is rolling through the state — and organizers expect record numbers ...

And also, from Gallup, "Voters Issue Strong Rebuke of Incumbents in Congress":

A record-low percentage of U.S. voters -- 28% -- say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected. The previous low was 29% in October 1992.

The trend for previous midterm elections reveals that the 28% re-elect figure puts the sitting majority party in a danger zone. In the two recent midterm elections in which the congressional balance of power changed (1994 and 2006), the percentage of voters saying most members deserved to be re-elected fell below 40%, as it does today. By contrast, in 1998 and 2002, when the existing Republican majority was maintained, 55% or better held this view.

Additionally, 65% of registered voters -- the highest in Gallup history, and by far the highest in any recent midterm year -- now say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election.

This strong rebuke of congressional incumbents comes from a March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup survey. The same poll finds 49% of voters, a near-record low, saying their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected. This marks only the second time since Gallup began asking this question in 1992 that the figure has dipped below 50%, and the first on the doorstep of a midterm election.

Shoot, maybe I should have taken up JBW's bet!