Speculation on Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin's surprise resignation is still leading the news cycle this weekend. Check Lucianne, Memeorandum, and RealClearPolitics for news and analysis. Also, the Washington Post, "Weary Palin Sought to Regain Control."

Plus, C. Edmund Wright, "Palin v. Pundits," and Conservatives for Sarah Palin, "Reactions Round-up." Rush Limbaugh's comments on Palin are at Radio Equalizer, "EXCLUSIVE: Rush Limbaugh Breaks Silence Over Palin Resignation" (via Memeorandum). Also, Governor Palin hits back against her attackers, "It's On!... Palin's Legal Counsel Threatens to Sue Liberal Blogs & State-Run Media For Slander."

Recall yesterday at The Fix, "Palin's 2012 Two-Step." Chris Cillizza argued that it's virtually assured that Palin will make a run for the 2012 GOP nomination. Non-stop excitement, no doubt, and my sense is that she'll remain competitive despite predictions that her resignation was a career-killer. Indeed, see John Batchelor, "How Palin's Resignation Makes Her the True Frontrunner." And Dan Riehl says, "Here Comes Sarah!"

But check Adam Graham, at Pajamas Media, "2012: Myths and Misconceptions."

Personally, I'm happy no matter what Sarah Palin does, as long as she keeps her pledge to seek change from the outside (which is a pledge not to retire from politics altogether). Recall my initial theory, however, as the news broke: I suggested that 2016 was Palin's best shot, "today we might have seen Palin's 'you won't have Sarah Palin to kick around' moment. If she stays on the sidelines in '12 AND if Barack Obama is reelected to a second term, look for Sarah Palin to be the prohibitive frontrunner in 2016."

Compare that to Johanna Neuman's post, "Palin's Resignation Speech Has Shades of Nixon's 1962 Concession Address":

... Palin's hastily announced press conference also had all the earmarks of Richard Nixon's famous concession speech in 1962, after he lost the campaign for California governor to Democrat Pat Brown. Nixon's rant was also a last-minute affair. Reporters had been told that Nixon -- a former congressman and senator who served as Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president from 1952 to 1960 and lost the 1960 presidential race to John F. Kennedy -- would not be making a public appearance.

Instead, Nixon surprised even his staff by taking the microphone and, at the end of a long, rambling, 16-minute discourse on national and state politics, he dramatically left the stage.

I leave you gentleman now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That's your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you're going to be missing. You won't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference and it will be one in which I have welcomed the opportunity to test wits with you.

Like Nixon, Palin seemed fraught with emotion. Like Nixon, she seemed angry at her critics ....

Of course to the surprise of his detractors, Nixon recovered. He spent the next six years stumping the country, piling up chits from grateful politicians who benefited from his endorsements, chits he cashed in during his successful 1968 run for the presidency.

For electoral reasons, I like Palin in 2016 better than 2012; and as we can see, that scenario certainly has historical precedent.

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Added: And the Los Angeles Times might be reading my blog!