Since the beginning of the 20th century, the party not in control of the White House has gained seats in every off-year election after a president's first election except for two times (1934 and 2002). Off-year dynamics are different and by the time they roll around many of the themes dominant in the presidential election have faded. Most importantly, new presidents and their administrations almost always overreach. And Barack Obama and his Democratic Party are overreaching in a big way.A great essay, at the link.
Related: Chris Cillizza, "The Most Important Number in Politics Today." ("45 - That's the percentage of voters who believe that President Obama lacks a 'clear plan for solving this country's problems' in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll.")
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