Health Reform is Bad Politics

From Kim Strassel, "Why Health Reform Is Bad Politics":

Another week, another episode of health-care drama, another round of headlines proving the end is not yet nigh. The polls are dismal, the Democratic caucus is in disarray, it is spring of 2010. Yet the ObamaCare dozer grinds on, and on, and on.

What has been driving the machine these past few painful months is the fantastical (at this point) Democratic belief that somewhere at the end of "comprehensive" health care rests good politics. The left in particular is pushing these Democrats-must-pass-health-care-for-their-own-political-good arguments, and clearly some of President Obama's advisers buy it. In the interest of sanity, let's go through the theories.

The most popular might be termed the "If We Build It, They Will Come" hypothesis. The White House loves this one, and has been peddling it to any Blue Dog it can coax to the Oval Office. Americans just don't understand the health bill. Democrats haven't done a good job selling it. Once it is in place, the polls will improve.

This might have been compelling, say, last July. There has since been an inverse relationship between the number of times the president briefs the country and the public's view of reform. Whatever their view on individual elements of the legislation, Americans now firmly believe the sum total is a monstrosity that will harm the economy, cost too much, raise their premiums, and result in higher taxes.

Moreover, the bill offers nothing in the short term to change that view. Its taxes kick in immediately; its benefits are delayed for years. Every time an insurer hikes premiums in coming months (as they will), Democrats will get to explain why ObamaCare isn't working. History holds no examples of unpopular Washington policy quickly growing in public favor. History is brimming with illustrations of legislation the public came to hate even more than when it passed.

An equally popular theory is the "We Must Close the Enthusiasm Gap" line. Democrats are demoralized. If the White House does not provide its base a big victory, they will sit out the election. The activists themselves have seized on this theme (and on Rahm Emanuel's head), in hopes of driving the White House left. "Democrats on Election Day 2010 are going to get an a**-whoopin' of biblical proportions if things don't change right now," warned filmmaker Michael Moore in an open letter to the White House.

To believe this is to believe that a liberal base that remains furious with the White House on Guantanamo, on Afghanistan, on cap and trade, will turn out in enthusiastic droves because the White House passed a health bill that the same base views as a cop out. That base doesn't want a health-care victory; it wants a public option. Unless the president is prepared to give it to them, Democrats might not want to bet November on base support.

More at the link.

VIDEO HAT TIP: Patriot Room, "Dems Tell the Truth About HC Bill."