Saturday, August 22, 2009

Will Democrats Get Slaughtered In 2010?

The Rhetorican says it might be "Contract With America II."

But I love the title at Clusterstock, "
Will Democrats Get Slaughtered In 2010?":

If Republicans make a comeback by the 2010 midterm elections, it will be one of the most amazing acts of political judo ever, seeing as they've done nothing substantive and have no leadership, and since a few months ago, there was talk about a permanent Republican minority.
Well, the buzz is over Charlie Cook, at Cook Political Report, who suggested that the GOP could pick up enough seats in for a majority in 2010: "Special Update from the Cook Political Report":

For those of you not addicted to the 1:00pm EDT daily release of Gallup’s three-night moving average tracking poll, President Obama’s job approval rating in both their August 16-18 and August 17-19 averages was just 51 percent, the lowest level of his presidency. The latter sampling showed his disapproval up to 42 percent, matching his all-time low hit in the August 15-17 tracking poll. The 51% job approval rating is identical to two other polls released in recent days conducted by NBC News and the Pew Research Center. Today’s regression-based trend estimate computed by our friends at from all major national surveys show an approval rating of 50.7 percent and disapproval of 43.7 percent.

These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.

Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats. A new Gallup poll that shows Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents should provide little solace to Democrats. In the same poll, Congressional approval among independents is at 22 percent, with 31 percent approving overall, and 62 percent disapproving.
Also, check Cook's discussion on Hardball’s Chris Matthews:

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