Saturday, June 13, 2009

Analyzing the Iranian Election?

Call me cynical, but I never thought the outcome of Iran's (disputed) presidential election was in doubt. Persian authoritarianism is alive and well, and no doubt Iran's ruling mullahs would do the old PRI in Mexico proud.

Dave Schuler pretty much sums up my thinking at
Below the Beltway:

The election was illegitimate from the get-go. The “irregularities” didn’t begin yesterday. The Iranian system is one in which the elected officials have little or no real power, only candidates that have been approved by Iran’s actual rulers appear on ballots, and the mullahs, Iran’s real rulers, control the election process and the media from stem to stern.

All we can say now is than in Iran the people have spoken. The people that matter, anyway.
There's a huge buzz on the election, naturally, given the long-running hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. A particularly interesting take is found at Duck of Minerva, for what it's worth, "Estimating the Degree of Election Fraud in Iran: Nate Silver, Are You Out There?"

But see Daniel Drezner's related post, "
Just Repeat to Yourself, "Obama is Not God," And You Will Feel Much, Much Better [UPDATED]."


Mark Harvey said...

So many people in the USA have no earthly idea that we have been at war with Iran, technically, since 1979.

Rusty Walker said...

I don’t think you are a cynic, Donald, I, certainly, am not. There was no other way it could end up. I feared a possible assassination attempt on Mir Hossein Mousavi, who is apparently a hero to the youth movement. The Less-than-Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a still a hardliner behind all of this, regardless of the outcome. My friend Cracker may have a more evolved idea about this, as we briefly off-blog, discussed the youth movement within Iran recently and we both agree there is a potentially powerful influence that may be a storm brewing in our favor. But, nonetheless, this is discouraging. Again, the threat of assassination was in the air were Amedenijad to lose. We don’t have an administration that will be able to deal with this, in my estimation.

Tom the Redhunter said...

Actually, Mark, it's Iran that's been at war with us. Technically we haven't declared war on anyone since WWII.